Record Holiday Air Travel Is Expected

Americans are expected to take to the skies and highways in increasing numbers during the holiday season that begins today, with air travel expected to post a record, travel industry observers said Wednesday. Over the next 19 days, more than 33.5 million passengers are expected to board airplanes, an increase of more than 500,000 from the record holiday travel period last year, said Diana Cronan of the Air Transport Assn., an industry trade group.

Saturday is expected to be the busiest travel day of the holiday season, with more than 2 million people filling U.S. airliners to 84% capacity. Passengers traveling almost any time during the 2 1/2-week stretch will board planes at least 70% full. The only day projected to fall below that mark is Christmas, at 65%.

“We always tell people to get out to the airports early, but this year we really mean it,” said Terry Trippler, editor of Airfare Report magazine.

Motorists also should give themselves ample time to negotiate the nation’s highways, the Automobile Assn. of America said. In a report released Wednesday, the travel assistance group predicted that more than 35.5 million will hit the roads from now through New Year’s weekend for trips of at least 100 miles--a 2% increase over last year’s figures.

“Have extra patience,” AAA spokeswoman Janie Graziani urged motorists. “There are going to be a lot more people on the road.”

Scott Read, a spokesman for Los Angeles International Airport, said the airport has implemented extra security measures for the busy holiday season. “We’ve increased the number of police officers, both uniformed and plainclothes, to facilitate the flow of traffic through the airport,” he said. The added deployment began Wednesday, he said, in part because of possible retaliation for U.S. missile strikes against Iraq.

Winter vacation travelers also are lugging some misgivings about the economy, according to the Travel Industry Assn. of America.

In a random survey taken in October of 1,500 people who have taken trips of more than 100 miles within the last year, one in four respondents predicted the economy will take a downturn in the winter. Only 12% held that view in a similar poll conducted last year.

As a result, the number expected to travel during the winter months, although still a record, will rise a mere 1% over the 151.5 million that vacationed during that period last year, which saw a 4% jump in seasonal travelers.

“The U.S. economy is still in good shape, but travelers appear to have developed an uneasiness about the economy,” said Suzanne Cook, a senior vice president with the travel industry group. “They are not sure what the future holds. In that kind of environment, people tend to be cautious about their travel plans.”

But despite those concerns, the current robust economy is the main force driving so many people to travel in the first place, Trippler said.

Analyst Michael Lowry, who tracks the airline industry for the Portland, Ore.-based Airwatch Group, said steady increases in discretionary income spurred by a healthy economy have accounted for three straight years of passenger and revenue growth for the nation’s air carriers, and he expects that growth to continue this year and next.

“I know the pundits back on Wall Street are calling for a recession in this industry, but I just don’t see it. I think demand is just as strong as ever,” Lowry said.

Indeed, UAL Corp., parent of United Airlines, on Wednesday raised its earnings target for 1999. But as a hedge against a turn in the economy, the world’s largest carrier said it will reach its goal by controlling costs. The Chicago-based carrier added that 1999 earnings could range from $10 a share to $12 a share, but if the economy slows, demand for travel will wane and sales in turn would likely fall.

According to the Air Transport Assn., airline passenger loads through October were 1.2% higher than levels for the same period last year, and the organization expects this year’s totals to top the 544 million who took to the skies in 1997, Cronan said.

The prediction should come as no surprise to local travel agents, many of whom are still trying to book holiday vacations for last-minute clients.

“It’s amazing how many people are still trying to get away,” said Marilyn Gibbons, co-owner of Old Newport Travel in Newport Beach. “It’s hard to find places to send them, because everything is pretty well sold out.”

Vicky Campbell at All About Travel in Northridge agreed. “If you haven’t made your holiday travel arrangements, there’s nothing available unless you’re willing to pay a premium price.”

“Mexico is completely gone; don’t even think about it,” said Linda Brown at Seaside Travel in Long Beach. “Florida is pretty much gone too.”

Florida, California and Nevada topped the Travel Industry Assn. of America’s list of hot vacation destinations this winter, edging Hawaii from the top three for the first time.