State Outpaces U.S. in Population Gain

By JODI WILGOREN

Jan. 1, 1998 12 AM PT

TIMES STAFF WRITER

WASHINGTON — In a striking turnabout from the early 1990s, California’s population swelled 1.3% in the 12 months ending July 1, outpacing the national growth rate of 0.9%, according to data released Wednesday by the U.S. Census Bureau.

A Washington consulting firm said the new data indicate that California--which already has the largest congressional delegation--will be one of seven states to add a seat after the 2000 census.

Nevada remained the fastest-growing state for the 12th consecutive year, with a population surge of 4.8%, but California added 410,000 new residents, by far the most in terms of raw numbers.

Las Vegas has grown faster than any other metropolitan region, jumping 40.9% between 1990 and 1996, while Southern California added the most people--963,626--since 1990, bringing the combined population of Los Angeles, Riverside and Orange counties to 15.5 million last year.

Analysts attributed California’s influx to a booming and balanced economy, as well as a lack of the disasters--fires, floods, earthquakes and urban unrest--that marked the first half of the decade. While immigration remains a huge factor in the state’s population growth, the real change is that fewer residents have fled California for other states, they said.

Most offered the same simple, upbeat assessment: California is back.

“I was one of the people who announced that the myth of the Golden State is over. I was wrong,” said Sherry Bebitch Jeffe of the Claremont Graduate University’s Center for Politics and Economics. “The myth of the Golden State is very much alive.”

Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan, vacationing in Sun Valley, Idaho, credited the vibrant economy, a historic drop in crime and the new Getty Center with making his city a magnet again.

“Today’s news is another of many indicators that Los Angeles is back and better than ever,” Riordan said in a written statement. “Los Angeles is the place where people want to live, work and play.”

Beneath the enthusiasm, some analysts worried that increased sprawl, overcrowded schools, crippled infrastructure and gridlocked freeways could mark the state’s future if the population’s growth--and the generational tilt toward younger families--continues. An August report predicted that California would add nearly 18 million people--about as many as currently live in New York state--by 2025.

Jack Kyser of the Economic Development Corp. of Los Angeles County noted that while the data are promising for retailers and those in service industries, it could spell trouble for city and county governments, many of which are struggling with budget deficits and a long to-do list of building new schools and fixing roads.

“The new figures remind Californians of the importance of innovative solutions, whether it’s telecommuting or new transit options, increased funding for highways or schools,” said Tim Ransdell of the California Institute, which advises the state’s congressional delegation. “Policymakers will need to . . . respond with clever ways to the upcoming influx.”

Jeffe agreed, citing traffic problems, the growing gap between rich and poor and new federal regulations limiting immigration and welfare benefits as key issues.

John Seager of Zero Population Growth noted that last year’s 1.5 million births “due to unintended pregnancies” accounted for more than 60% of U.S. population growth. “I don’t think that on a broad societal basis or an individual case that’s an outcome that’s desirable,” he said.

The ongoing expansion of Las Vegas and of Phoenix--which has grown by 22.7%, or 508,205 people--also threatens to create another war over water.

“It would be nice if a lot of this growth was happening in wet parts of the United States,” observed Peter Morrison, a demographer at the Rand Corp., a Santa Monica think tank. “What you have . . . is the makings of a tremendous battle over water. There are real basic conflicts in terms of natural resources.”

The West was the fastest-growing region in the nation last year, with a population increase of 1.6% to more than 59 million people. Arizona had the second-largest percentage increase, growing 2.7%, while Utah jumped 2.1% and Colorado 2%.

California was the 12th fastest-growing state. In 1994-95, it had been 36th.

The Northeast, with a population increase of only 0.2%, was the nation’s slowest-growing region, and the Midwest grew just 0.5%. The South’s population swelled 1.3%, helped by Georgia’s 2.1% surge, Texas’ 1.8% growth and 1.6% increases in Florida and North Carolina.

New data were not available for cities and counties, but among metropolitan areas, second-ranked Southern California is gaining on the vast New York region, whose population grew by less than 2% between 1990 and 1996. San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose added 355,547 people during the period, and in 1996 was the nation’s fifth-largest metropolitan area.

According to the analysis by Elections Data Services of Washington, Texas would gain two congressional seats after the 2000 census if the trends hold. California, Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Montana and Nevada would each gain one; eight states in the East and Midwest would lose one seat each.

After the 1990 census, California gained seven congressional seats, giving it 52 House members.

“We know that California, Texas and Florida are the mega-states of today and tomorrow, and this just kind of reinforces it,” said Thomas Mann of the Brookings Institution.

State librarian Kevin Starr said the rebound is a reminder of California’s “destiny”--if cultures had DNA, he said, “a persistent DNA code in California is one for growth.”

Jeffe, who was spending New Year’s Eve in New York City, said it’s as simple as the sunny skies.

“It’s cold. I don’t like it here,” the transplanted New Yorker said with a laugh. “The climate is there. It’s just a nice place to live.”

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

Growth Spurts

The U.S. Census Bureau reported Wednesday that the Los Angeles metropolitan area (which includes Riverside and Orange counties) experienced the nation’s biggest population gain between 1990 and 1996 but was not one of the 10 fastest-growing areas of the country. The Los Angeles area remains the country’s second largest, after the New York metropolitan area.

BIGGEST POPULATION GAINS, 1990-96

Los Angeles/Riverside/Orange County: 963,626

Atlanta: 581,730

Dallas/Ft. Worth: 537,279

Houston/Galveston-Brazoria, Texas: 522,399

Phoenix/Mesa, Ariz.: 508,205

Washington, D.C./Baltimore: 438,124

New York/northern New Jersey/Long Island, N.Y.: 388,843

Chicago/Gary, Ind./Kenosha, Wis.: 359,954

San Francisco/Oakland/San Jose: 355,547

Seattle/Tacoma/Bremerton, Wash.: 350,529

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