Pollsters Sent Back to Square One

It’s enough to make grown men and women cry. Or at least moan a lot.

Few in California know more about the upcoming change in the state’s primary system than political pollsters, and few are more nervous about that change. If shot nerves and indigestion could be measured as comprehensively as voter preferences, they would be the symptoms of the year for the polling class.

Essentially, what the change to an “open”--actually a blanket--primary does is this: It takes every measurement pollsters use to determine voters’ future behavior and tosses it into a cocked hat. Pass the aspirin.

“It’s the fear of the unknown,” Times Poll Director Susan Pinkus says when asked what is driving her and her colleagues to distraction. “It’s like walking into a party not knowing anybody and hoping you’ll have a good time.”

Other pollsters echo Pinkus’ reaction, describing an unnerving mix of adrenaline rush at the prospect of leaping into uncertainty and a dread concern about getting it right.

Paul Maslin, a Democratic pollster with vast experience in state and national campaigns, is working this year for Lt. Gov. Gray Davis’ gubernatorial effort. Ask him what he thinks about the new primary system and he lets loose a friendly laugh.

“This is one case where I wish I was working for Al Checchi,” he said, referring to the almost-billionaire businessman who is running against Davis for the Democratic nomination. “If you’ve got unlimited money, you can work out all the possible cases.”

In normal times, which is to say before this year, a pollster’s work was always fraught with risk but somewhat predictable nonetheless. Those working for campaigns, or heading an independent poll like The Times’, gather data on past voter behavior and try to apply their findings to the future.

In measuring which Democrats are likely to vote--or are at least persuadable given a major push by a candidate--pollsters would establish how certain voters had behaved in the past and use that yardstick to determine whether they were likely to vote in the future. Once they had determined who was likely to vote, they could determine likely outcomes.

For the primaries, pollsters needed only to inquire about Democrats if they were working for Democratic candidates, or Republicans if they were signed onto that side of the aisle, because voters could only vote for candidates from the party to which they were registered.

Now everyone is entering a brave new world where Democrats can vote for Republican candidates and vice versa, and independents--who previously could not even vote for candidates in California primaries--can vote for anyone they wish.

Independents--those who do not declare a party preference--are a particular challenge to pollsters now because it is impossible to measure how reliable their primary votes are--they have, after all, no voting history in such races. And they are a consequential group, comprising as much as 13% of the vote in recent general elections, Pinkus said.

Things are particularly complicated this year because each of the big-ticket races on the ballot--those for governor and U.S. Senate--has a cakewalk on one side of the aisle and a furious fight on the other. In the governor’s race, Atty. Gen. Dan Lungren is the sole major Republican candidate, while three Democrats are vying for that party’s nomination.

In the Senate race, the situation is reversed. Democrat Barbara Boxer is the putative party nominee, but the Republican contest features three candidates.

Those dynamics have raised concerns that Republicans will cross party lines to cast a meaningful vote for governor, and that Democrats will do the same in the Senate race. While some pollsters believe a limited amount of such crossover voting is possible, others disagree strongly.

“It is not clear that Republicans who vote in primaries or special elections are the kinds that cross over,” said pollster Fred Yang. “The people who vote in primaries are hard-core Democrats and harder-core Republicans. If you vote in June and you’re a Republican, you’re unlikely to vote for Boxer.”

The wild card, however, is a rich candidate who has the financial resources to appeal directly to less hard-core party voters, or to independents who have not voted in the past. The races this year are stocked with people who fit that bill, including Democrats Checchi and Harman in the governor’s race and Republican businessman Darrell Issa in the Senate contest.

“I do think that Checchi is the wild card here,” said pollster Maslin. “Checchi, with his enormous resources, is going to have the ability to bring new people to the table.”

After the primary, pollsters will scramble to parse over the vote, gleaning what wisdom they can from the voters who showed up. But it may take a while longer to determine the impact of the new primary system, many pollsters caution.

“I think the open primary will be different in 10 years than it is today,” said pollster Yang. “I’m not sure how different things will be in June. Voting is a habit. If you’re independent and you don’t vote in primaries, you’re not in the habit.”