Diplomatic Hopes Dim as U.S. Aligns Huge Strike Force

WASHINGTON —  With the powerful components of the Pentagon’s war machine moving into position, the Clinton administration Thursday brushed aside any suggestion that there is room for diplomacy to avert an attack on Iraq, and possibly a massive one, at virtually any moment.

Although President Clinton was silent on the subject, others in the administration kept up the drumbeat. Defense Secretary William S. Cohen delivered a message, stern in its simplicity, that whatever punishing military strikes the U.S. launches against Iraqi President Saddam Hussein “will be significant.”

“We’re not playing games,” Cohen said.

“There is no need for further warnings to Iraq,” State Department spokesman James P. Rubin said. “We have been at this a long time. They understand our seriousness.”

In Baghdad, Tarik Aziz, the deputy prime minister and Iraq’s most seasoned diplomat, held out little hope of a peaceful resolution, telling reporters: “We don’t see any light at the end of the tunnel. There is a tunnel after the tunnel.

“The road is being blocked continuously, stubbornly, illegally by [Clinton’s] government,” he said.

The Clinton administration took heart from a rare display of unity--perhaps greater than at any time since the end of the 1991 Persian Gulf War--that found nations in Europe and, most significantly, much of the Arab world lining up behind the United States.

The foreign ministers of eight Arab nations issued a statement Thursday holding Baghdad responsible for exposing “the innocent Iraqi people to more miseries and tragedies.”

The statement--made by Syria, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Oman--said: “The Iraqi government is held responsible for any consequences that might arise from its refusal to back down from its decision to expel the U.N. weapons inspectors.”

The crisis appears to be nearing a boiling point just as Clinton and other top aides are scheduled to depart for an Asian economic conference in Malaysia. Clinton is scheduled to leave Washington on Saturday and return Nov. 23. Officials have not said that travel plans are being changed--nor have they said whether he would launch an attack while out of the country.

In the United States’ view, the standoff has been precipitated by Iraq’s refusal Aug. 5 to allow the U.N. Special Commission to carry out its field inspections for the nuclear, chemical and biological weapons that Iraq is charged with eliminating. On Oct. 31, Iraq took the additional step of halting the monitoring of previously discovered weapons sites. Iraq says it will not cooperate with the disarmament regimen until the economic sanctions imposed after Baghdad invaded Kuwait in 1990 are lifted.

By drawing attention to the Arab nations’ statement, the administration was demonstrating more than the breadth of support it is claiming against Hussein; it was carefully building a defense against the inevitable outcry should bombs and missiles bring pictures of civilian casualties into global living rooms.

“These are countries that know him well, understand what’s happening inside Iraq more than most. They’ve clearly pinned responsibility on Saddam Hussein,” a White House official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity. “It’s a welcome development.”

The officials said that, earlier in the week, Clinton had spoken with the emir of Qatar, expressing hope that a “strong statement” would emerge, and Cohen and Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, speaking with counterparts in the region, made clear that the U.S. would value such a show of support.

Clinton also spoke by telephone Thursday with Germany’s new chancellor, Gerhard Schroeder, and with the prime ministers of Belgium, the Netherlands and Sweden.

In trying to build popular support for military action, the administration is painting Hussein as a leader without a reed of support in the diplomatic world--”a lone voice that is completely isolated,” said Joe Lockhart, the White House press secretary.

Signaling that military operations--although not certain--could begin without further notice, he said: “We’re not getting into timetables. We’re not getting into deadlines. We’re not getting into ultimatums.”

Beyond the immediate concerns about whether and when the president will give a go-ahead to the Pentagon, there were questions about the extent of any attack and its objectives. Administration officials were reluctant to discuss military plans in detail--and, in particular, the sensitive issue of whether the unspoken goal would be, in effect, Hussein’s loss of power, if not his life. U.S. policy prohibits targeting foreign leaders for assassination.

“We have thought well beyond Hour One and Day One and Week One,” Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott said. “There are lots of ways we can ensure he loses on Day One and after that.”

But Sen. Richard G. Lugar (R-Ind.), a respected voice on foreign policy, was much more blunt, saying, “Saddam Hussein has to be removed.”

If that cannot be accomplished without killing him, he said, “I suspect, then, he will have to be killed.”

Lugar said aiming to weaken Iraq’s capability to produce weapons of mass destruction would be constructive.

But he said he hopes the administration is preparing “a substantially greater program, and that is the change of regimes.” Without that, Lugar said, Hussein will try to rebuild his weapons program.

Thus, strikes by missiles and bombers that destroy weapons complexes, he said, “will not get the job done. The planning really has to be for stages two, three or four.”

In a letter to Clinton, Sen. Arlen Specter (R-Pa.) questioned the use of force without congressional approval, which he said would be “another major step in undermining the sole authority of Congress to declare war.”

Administration officials said that Clinton had “inherent authority” to use force and that it was authorized when Congress approved a U.N. Security Council resolution dealing with Iraq’s concealment of weapons.

In New York, U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan returned to his headquarters after cutting short a visit to North Africa, and he spoke by telephone with representatives of members of the Security Council. The council is scheduled to meet this afternoon.

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Times staff writers Norman Kempster, Tyler Marshall and Bob Drogin in Washington and John J. Goldman at the United Nations contributed to this report.