Race to 2000

To some it’s a problem of apocalyptic proportions that will send the world into a digital tizzy, while for others it’s little more than an overblown millennial prophecy that will pass with a whimper rather than a bang.

Whatever the case, the millennium bug--a software glitch that causes computers to recognize two-digit dates rather than four--has touched off a race throughout Ventura County to ensure that the computer systems that manage everything from thermostats to property records don’t go into a nose dive the moment the calendar reads 01/01/00.

“This is a serious problem,” said county Auditor Tom Mahon, who is supervising the county’s effort to remedy the malady commonly referred to as the year 2000 problem--or the “Y2K” computer bug.

“No one knows for sure what would happen if it isn’t fixed,” Mahon said, “but we’re sure that it’s something that needs to be taken care of.”

As the millennial dawn begins to break, the Y2K bug has been viewed by many computer experts as a significant threat to anyone or anything that relies on computers.

Some analysts warn that as the world steps into the next millennium, computers that have not been upgraded will read the year as 1900. And that, they say, could jeopardize any computer-assisted task that requires a date, like paying a bill, issuing a pay check, keeping track of court records and even turning on the sprinklers.

“One of my favorites is birth dates and their calculations,” said Lamar Barnett, quality manager for the Florida-based firm HTE Inc., which develops software for government agencies and services systems for Thousand Oaks.

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“Say you’re born in 1972 and a system that hasn’t been modified tries to calculate your age in the year 2000, it’ll come up with a negative number.”

Despite the fact that the Y2K problem has its share of naysayers who predict it will pass with barely a shrug, it hasn’t stopped local government agencies and businesses from spending millions of dollars to err on the side of caution rather than suffer the consequences of a widespread digital meltdown.

As with all cities in Ventura County, Ojai has done about all it can to ready itself for the millennium.

After a year of work and more than $40,000, the city has completed modifications to the systems that handle the city’s business, and officials feel confident that Jan. 1, 2000, will be no different than any other Saturday.

“There would have been some problems if we hadn’t made any upgrades and there’s always the possibility there will be some we didn’t even think of,” Ojai City Manager Andrew Belknap said. “But as long as the power and the phones work I think we’ll be OK.”

Moorpark has also finished all its upgrades and expects the first Monday of the new millennium will be just like the last, with the exception of perhaps the temperature.

“I think our biggest problem is going to be with the thermostats,” said administrative services manager Don Reynolds. “Other than that, we’re up to date.”

In fact, any computerized device is subject to problems.

Automated doors could have a problem knowing when to open and close. Sprinkler systems could be sent into a conundrum and either over water a lawn or not water it at all. Parole records could be skewed to show a person should be released from jail when they shouldn’t.

Metrolink, whose system is automated by a web of computers, has already upgraded, but it will need to replace its voice mail system.

And devices called event recorders--similar to the black boxes in airliners--that record the operation of a locomotive are also expected to go on the fritz and will need to be replaced.

“We’ve been on top of this for a while and there shouldn’t be any disruption in service,” Metrolink spokesman Peter Hidalgo said. “It’s those little things that we still need to work on.”

Other cities such as Ventura, Oxnard and Simi Valley have nearly completed their system upgrades and have only to conduct testing and modify software used on personal computers.

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Generally, cities rely on their so-called big iron--mainframe computers that run COBOL and other workhorse business software--to manage their finances, budgets, accounting and billing.

They are, however, also dependent on personal computers that are used in municipal departments to do everything from issuing building permits to storing business licenses.

But because city systems are centralized, meaning they feed and operate off a mainframe, the cost of making them Y2K-compliant ranges from about $40,000 to $70,000.

Compared with the more than $5 billion the federal government will spend and the $100 million the state reports it will cost to bring its legion of computers up to speed, the cost is rather small.

Modifying a computer system to understand the year 2000 is not a difficult task, but that’s not to say it’s at all easy, experts say.

Typically, when upgrading the software that operates a city’s mainframe, engineers must pore through millions of lines of code to locate the areas that are not Y2K-compliant and correct them.

Software engineers must then identify and modify other areas within the programs where calculations are made to ensure the data compute.

The manner in which that data is stored must then be changed to understand the new date and then the entire system must be tested.

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“It’s not rocket science,” said Barnett of HTE. “It’s just a matter of finding those locations where the codes need to be changed. . . . But because these are large and very sophisticated programs, the job becomes pretty intense.”

Which is why Ventura County is running up against a wall and will need to continue to set an exhausting pace to ready itself.

In a June memorandum prepared by the auditor’s office, Mahon concluded the county “is not positioned to ensure that all aspects of Y2K compliance are accomplished efficiently and timely” and that the consequences of not correcting the problem “are serious and cannot be postponed.”

The bulk of the county’s problem stems from its size.

Unlike the cities, Ventura County’s computer network is decentralized, meaning it relies on dozens of departmental systems operating independently rather than a single mainframe.

“In essence the county is like 40 different companies, so you can imagine the work that needs to be done,” said Matt Carroll, director of information systems for the county.

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The county has already spent about $7 million modifying the software and hardware that drive the departmental mainframes and is set to spend up to $2 million to upgrade software on personal computers.

Carroll estimated about 46% of the work has been completed and said that all systems should be Y2K-compliant by next summer.

But because the county’s computer network is so large, Carroll and others say the millennium bug may crop up and infect systems for some unforeseen reason.

To counter this, each department has been directed to draft a list of emergency contingency plans, which are similar to the ones used for disasters such as earthquakes.

Staff members from the information systems department will also be on hand 24 hours a day beginning Dec. 31 to tackle any problems that arise.

“One of the big misconceptions is that we’ll catch everything and we won’t,” Carroll said. “And I don’t think anyone will be 100% successful when it comes to this problem.”