Take a Miseducated Guess

What are the chances of the Grammy Awards’ giving us great best album selections two years in a row?

Since the only time it has happened in 20 years was in the mid-’80s, when Paul Simon’s “Graceland” and U2’s “The Joshua Tree” won back to back, the odds against the occurrence are as high as picking the daily double at Santa Anita.

But get ready to cash in Wednesday during the 41st annual Grammy ceremony.

The voters gave us the first half of the winning parlay last year by naming Bob Dylan’s “Time Out of Mind” the best album of the year, and the betting favorite this time is Lauryn Hill’s splendid “The Miseducation of Lauryn Hill.”

A Hill victory would not only mark the first time a hip-hop artist has won in the best album category, but it would also give Hill, with 10 nominations, an excellent chance to collect more Grammys in one night than any other female artist in history. The record is four, which was established by Carole King in 1971, the year of “Tapestry.” (Michael Jackson holds the overall record of eight.)

The 23-year-old New Jersey singer, songwriter and producer isn’t the only woman you are likely to see onstage a lot Wednesday night. Madonna could pick up multiple Grammys, which would be her first wins in the competition outside of a video award in 1991.

Here’s a look at the top categories with some of the most interesting matchups. The ceremony, which will be held at the Shrine Auditorium, will be broadcast on tape delay on KCBS-TV at 8 p.m.

Album of the Year

The nominees: Sheryl Crow’s “The Globe Sessions,” Garbage’s “Version 2.0,” Lauryn Hill’s “The Miseducation of Lauryn Hill,” Madonna’s “Ray of Light,” Shania Twain’s “Come On Over”

Hill may be the favorite, but she has every reason to be biting her nails this week.

The 10,000 recording academy voters often look past the most obvious--and deserving--nominees. Remember 1996, when the voters chose Celine Dion’s “Falling Into You” over Beck’s “Odelay,” the consensus choice among critics for album of the year, and the Fugees’ “The Score,” a trailblazing hip-hop effort.

Everyone knows the voters favor mainstream bestsellers, and that makes Twain a dangerous entry here. The album may be disheartening pop-country formula, but it has sold about 7 million copies, nearly double any other nominee in this category.

Crow is also a threat because she has won five Grammys since 1994, and voters often tend to repeat themselves. Madonna’s album is the best of her career, but voters will probably honor her in the best record category, where the competition isn’t so fierce. Garbage is the rock longshot, the slot occupied last year by Radiohead.

That leaves Hill, whose “Miseducation” combines the stylish craft and penetrating social commentary that characterized Stevie Wonder’s peak ‘70s work. She is also a past winner (two rap awards as a member of the Fugees), and her album has sold an impressive 3 million copies.

Most likely winner and most deserving nominee: Lauryn Hill

Record of the Year

The nominees: Brandy & Monica’s “The Boy Is Mine,” Celine Dion’s “My Heart Will Go On,” the Goo Goo Dolls’ “Iris,” Madonna’s “Ray of Light” and Shania Twain’s “You’re Still the One”

Dion won in 1996 for best album, but she wasn’t nominated in that category this time. The singer--and her song from “Titanic”--may be suffering from burnout over all the hoopla over the movie.

Twain will likely benefit from strong support from the academy’s country music contingent, which rarely is represented outside the country categories. But the voters will be more apt to turn to the Madonna record, which is a far more stylish entry and provides a convenient way to honor the colorful artist for her career accomplishments.

The Goo Goo Dolls’ record wasn’t even the best track on the “City of Angels” soundtrack (that distinction goes to Alanis Morissette’s “Uninvited”). Brandy & Monica’s record is nicely designed, but slight.

Most likely winner and most deserving nominee: Madonna

New Artist

The nominees: Backstreet Boys, Andrea Bocelli, Dixie Chicks, Lauryn Hill and Natalie Imbruglia

There shouldn’t be much nail biting here for Hill. The Backstreet Boys, Bocelli and Imbruglia are novelties in different ways (teen pop, classical lite and video-generated star). The name Dixie Chicks may conjure images of a country Spice Girls, but the female trio is talented and would deserve the nod most years. But not this one.

Most likely winner and most deserving nominee: Lauryn Hill

Pop Album

The nominees: Eric Clapton’s “Pilgrim,” Celine Dion’s “Let’s Talk About Love,” Natalie Imbruglia’s “Left of the Middle,” Madonna’s “Ray of Light” and the Brian Setzer Orchestra’s “The Dirty Boogie”

Clapton has won 11 Grammys in the ‘90s, but even his admirers must realize this was a weak package. Imbruglia and the Setzer Orchestra are lucky to have made the cut, and Dion’s record is full of her usual excess. That leaves Madonna, whose collection had a more personal and convincing tone than her earlier work.

Most likely winner and most deserving nominee: Madonna

Rock Album

The nominees: Sheryl Crow’s “The Globe Sessions,” John Fogerty’s “Premonition,” Garbage’s “Version 2.0,” Hole’s “Celebrity Skin” and the Dave Matthews Band’s “Before These Crowded Streets”

If the correlation between deserving albums and likely winners seems a little too rosy so far, here’s where the streak ends.

Fogerty, one of the greatest artists ever in American rock, isn’t likely to repeat last year’s win in this category with this live collection. “Globe Sessions” seems too conventional to deserve a win, but look for one because the album was hailed by numerous critics, and Crow’s past Grammy wins suggest she is respected by the voters.

Courtney Love’s contentious image may cost Hole votes with the old guard, but the album is far more daring and revealing than than either of the remaining contenders--the worthy but overmatched Garbage and the capable but terminally bland Dave Matthews Band.

Most likely winner: Sheryl Crow

Most deserving nominee: Hole

R&B; Album

The nominees: Erykah Badu’s “Live,” Brandy’s “Never Say Never,” Aretha Franklin’s “A Rose Is Still a Rose,” Lauryn Hill’s “The Miseducation of Lauryn Hill” and Maxwell’s “Embrya”

There is some outstanding talent here, but it’s Hill’s night. She should end up with at least five awards.

Most likely winner and most deserving nominee: Lauryn Hill

Country Album

The nominees: Garth Brooks’ “Sevens,” the Dixie Chicks’ “Wide Open Spaces,” Faith Hill’s “Faith,” Shania Twain’s “Come On Over” and Trisha Yearwood’s “Where Your Road Leads”

Everybody says Twain is a cinch here, but beware of a last-minute charge by the Dixie Chicks, whose album is red-hot and whose sound is far fresher. Yearwood and Brooks are reliable, but both are nominated for works that tend to retrace familiar territory. Faith Hill rises to the occasion at times, but not enough in this album to deserve to sneak past the Chicks.

Most likely winner: Shania Twain

Most deserving nominee: the Dixie Chicks

Contemporary Folk Album

The nominees: Billy Bragg & Wilco’s “Mermaid Avenue,” Steve Earle’s “El Corazon,” Emmylou Harris’ “Spyboy,” Lyle Lovett’s “Step Inside This House” and Lucinda Williams’ “Car Wheels on a Gravel Road”

This is the strongest field of the evening. Lovett is a past winner who has come up with an understated gem in this collection of tunes by Texas songwriters who influenced him. Also watch for Williams, another longtime cult favorite whose “Gravel Road” was on scores of critics’ Top 10s last year. Earle and Harris are also marvelous artists with great bodies of work. But the album in this bunch that seemed the most inspired was the Bragg-Wilco salute to--and posthumous partnership with--Woody Guthrie.

Most likely winner: Lyle Lovett

Most deserving nominee: Billy Bragg & Wilco.*

*

Robert Hilburn, The Times’ pop music critic, can be reached by e-mail at robert.hilburn@latimes.com.