Containing North Korea’s Dangerous Volatility

Winter this year is the season of Korea’s discontent. The peninsula’s nerves are more tightly drawn than ever; the 1994 accord known as the Agreed Framework, concocted in Geneva to keep North Korea off the nuclear-weapons path, is unraveling. Border skirmishes and submarine intrusions are increasing, and in the North festers a mysterious underground facility that the communist government bars Washington from inspecting unless an absurd $300 million “viewing fee” is first paid. And as the rice paddies freeze over, worst-case Western military planners envision them as impromptu bridges for rolling tanks, mobile artillery and advancing battalions. Sub-zero temperatures also increase the dispersal of chemical weapons.

It was against this increasingly grim backdrop that U.S. Defense Secretary William Cohen concluded last week’s six-day visit to South Korea and Japan. Indeed, this Asia trip revived rumors in the Asian press that the United States has worked out a plan to occupy North Korea in the event of its collapse, as well as an aggressive war plan to invade the North with U.S. forces based in Japan. But in an interview on his return to the U.S., Cohen downplayed such speculation while admitting that, were North Korea to implode, “frankly, we have fairly detailed plans for every contingency.”

Of course, Cohen knows plans go out the window when war erupts. The key to Korean peninsula security, in addition to U.S. steadfastness and South Korean resolve, is the active and constructive involvement of Japan and China.

In some respects, Japan’s role in Asia is as problematic as China’s. Its embedded pacifism and cautious diplomacy often frustrate Washington. But Cohen struck a hopeful note: “Japan . . . is starting to reach out. When I got to Tokyo, Prime Minister Obuchi was just back from Germany and Foreign Minister Komura was just back from the Middle East. It is a very positive sign. Remember that they were the first country to endorse our actions in Iraq.”

Cohen knows full well that the Japanese have “a good deal of ambivalence about their role in the world.” But in one sense last summer’s North Korean missile test, with a provocative flight path over Japan, was a blessing. It infuriated Japanese public opinion and put Japanese politicians on notice that the bilateral security relationship with America is more vital than ever.

Soon, the Japanese parliament, the Diet, will begin debating the proposed U.S.-Japan military alliance, which pushes new duties and responsibilities on Japan. Reports Cohen: “Prime Minister Obuchi is very positive about the new guidelines. But at the same time, it will be very difficult to persuade the Diet to fund the [1994] KEDO plan [for North Korea] if there is another incident. Any new missile firing would generate domestic political pressure in Japan to withdraw from the program.” Reflecting on the North Korean demand for a viewing fee, Cohen laughed: “That would have been a pretty expensive peek. How do you handle the North Koreans? You can suggest options or opportunities to them but you have to be careful and avoid linkage to compensation. You have to continue to talk to them and hope that they see the light. This will not happen overnight. They are very isolated.” Congress, which takes a dim view of any dealings with Pyongyang, has handed Cohen a June 1 deadline for an inspection.

Cohen considers China crucial: “They don’t want to see North Korea go nuclear or develop longer-range missiles, either. And they don’t want to see Japan develop their own missile systems. There’s more and more contact between China and the Republic of [South] Korea. This is a positive development. Everyone feels we have to continue to engage with China.”

This week in Geneva, North Korea is scheduled to resume its participation in another four-party session with the United States, China and South Korea. Noted Cohen: “The good news is, the North Koreans, despite everything, are still talking.” Cohen did not foreclose the possibility of a further U.S. buildup if, he says, “the Agreed Framework falls apart, for whatever reason. If they suddenly were to become more provocative, then we’d respond. On this, I spent a lot of time with the South Koreans, including President Kim.” Cohen views Kim’s policy of trying to open commercial and cultural doors with North Korea as both pragmatic and courageous. And, given the alternatives, he feels, it is just about the only way to go--no matter the season.

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Times contributing editor Tom Plate’s column runs Tuesdays. He teaches at UCLA. Email: tplate@ucla.edu.