Following the Path of Solar Eclipse ’99

We’ve all heard about the array of millennium celebrations scheduled for the close of 1999. But the culminating natural spectacle will be staged in August, when the last total solar eclipse of the century streaks through Europe and the Middle East. Amateur astronomers around the world are lining up to take part in the show, and they won’t need a countdown clock to tell them when to cheer.

A solar eclipse sweeps across the globe six or seven times each decade. But many take place in areas that are hard to reach, or with unfavorable weather and viewing conditions. The eclipse in 1997 was to be visible in Mongolia and Siberia, except that they were socked in with clouds. The upcoming eclipse is a different story, and owing to its trajectory, it will probably be witnessed by more people than any in history.

On Aug. 11 the moon’s shadow, the umbra, will course a nearly 70-mile-wide path through 17 countries, from England to India. Inside this 8,700-mile-long track--the zone of totality--the viewing experience will last up to several minutes. Where clear skies allow, the backlighted moon, a panoply of stars and all five “naked eye” planets will become visible.

According to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the path of the eclipse will start in the North Atlantic and make landfall fittingly enough at Land’s End, in Cornwall, England, at 11:11 a.m. local time. The shadow will pass over Plymouth before crossing the English Channel to northern France, southern Belgium, Luxembourg and Germany.

Austria, Hungary and Romania are next; the umbra then skirts Bulgaria, crosses the Black Sea and bisects central and eastern Turkey before racing across Iraq, Iran, Pakistan and central India.

Because the eclipse covers such a large swath of accessible territory, the locations to witness it would seem to be endless. But several factors play into the equation that eclipse chasers will want to consider before booking a trip.

The first and most important is to be positioned well within the actual path of the shadow. The closer you are to the center line of the umbra’s route, the longer you will be submerged in totality.

Some tourism representatives are promoting activities just outside the path. While a partial eclipse can be impressive, it doesn’t compare with the experience of totality.

“Almost seeing a total eclipse is like almost winning the lottery,” said Fred Espenak, an astrophysicist with the NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center and veteran of 14 solar eclipse stakeouts.

A close second in importance is the estimation of peak weather conditions. Although August traditionally brings the best weather in Europe, clear skies are not a given along most of the path.

But an advantage of this eclipse is that it will occur in a number of places that are well worth visiting, so a clouded eclipse won’t make the trip a total loss.

Meteorological statistics predict just a 45% probability of seeing the event in England. In Western Europe odds are only slightly better. But conditions improve as the shadow heads east. Bucharest, Romania, will have a more than 60% chance of clear skies on Aug. 11, as will Turkey. Romania also will experience the longest totality--two minutes, 23 seconds.

The viewing odds are most favorable--90%--in Iraq and Iran. Conditions decline dramatically when the umbra slips into Pakistan and India.

“Ideally, if I were going to Europe, I would head to Bucharest,” said Espenak in an interview. But the Romanian capital has only 6,000 hotel beds for an event expected to bring 200,000 visitors into the country. So booking through an established tour operator may make sense.

Despite having the shakiest weather prospects for viewing, Great Britain has been ahead of other countries in preparations for Aug. 11. This is the British Isles’ first eclipse since 1927, and the next one isn’t until 2090.

Anticipating an onslaught of up to 2 million, the Cornwall Tourist Board advises attendees to “bring essential toiletries, water or drinks and packaged foods,” arrive at least the day before the eclipse, and have confirmed lodging.

For Americans, the best bet may be Turkey, where odds for clear skies approach 80%.

Spears Travel, which specializes in eclipse tours, has scheduled a nine-day trip through Turkey, viewing the eclipse near Malatya. Espenak will be a featured guest on the tour, which costs $1,630 per person, including air fare from New York.

Megatrails, which specializes in Turkey, is offering an 11-day fully escorted tour that takes in the eclipse from the city of Sivas. The price is $2,370 per person, including air fare from New York. Another Turkey specialist, Pacha Tours, is modifying four of its standard itineraries to incorporate eclipse-watching from Amasya. Prices start at $1,615 per person, including air fare from New York.

While the pristine conditions promised in Iraq are off-limits to Americans, that is not the case in Iran. Upscale operator Geographic Expeditions, which has been organizing trips in Iran since 1993, will offer an 11-day expedition that includes viewing the eclipse near the fabled city of Isfahan. Limited to 16 participants, the trip is priced at $2,990 per person, plus air fare.

It’s also worth considering a cruise on one of the many ships that will be positioned in the path of the umbra off the coast of England or on the Black Sea. The advantage of being on water is that the captain has some ability to maneuver into a better position should scattered clouds be present. The downside: Rolling seas may make long camera exposures difficult.

Euro Cruises is offering an eight-day cruise aboard the 450-passenger Black Prince, which will be in the English Channel for the eclipse. Weather prospects in the channel are expected to be better than on land in England or France. Per person rates start at $1,865.

Astronaut Buzz Aldrin will be on hand for the Norwegian Sky’s eclipse-watching as part of a 10-day cruise. It will be positioned near the Scilly Isles off Cornwall. Prices start at $2,599; booking agent is Travel Wizard in San Diego.

Royal Olympic Cruises will have three ships--one is already sold out--in the Black Sea during the eclipse. One-week itineraries are available on the 840-passenger Olympic Countess and the 450-passenger World Renaissance. Fares start at $1,515.

If the idea of seeing an eclipse invigorates the astronomer in you, this year’s event should rank high on your list. The next two eclipses will be in central and southern Africa (2001 and 2002), and the following one, in 2003, will be seen only from Antarctica. The next solar eclipse in North America will be in 2017.

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Fred Espenak’s NASA-sponsored Internet site, https://umbra.nascom.nasa.gov/eclipse.html, includes data about this and future eclipses, information about eye safety, photography tips and tracking maps.

Another useful eclipse resource is Great Britain’s Web site, https://www.eclipse.org.uk.

Among the operators offering eclipse tours and cruises:

Spears Travel, telephone (800) 688-8031.

Megatrails, tel. (800) 547-1211.

Pacha Tours, tel. (800) 722-4288.

Royal Olympic Cruises, tel. (800) 872-6400.

Geographic Expeditions, tel. (800) 777-8183.

Euro Cruises, tel. (800) 688-3876.

Travel Wizard, tel. (800) 708-7677.