Is It Safe to Fly? Will My ATM Work?
Frequently asked Y2K questions and their answers:
Question: What is the year 2000 problem?
Answer: The problem stems from the long-standing programming tradition of using two digits to represent a year. For example, 1997 would be stored electronically as 97. The practice was started in the earliest days of computing to conserve disk space--a precious commodity at the time. Even though the price of memory eventually dropped to trivial levels, the tradition of using two digits continued.
In the year 2000, the date 00 could be interpreted as either 1900 or 2000, resulting in possible miscalculations and malfunctions.
The so-called millennium bug potentially affects not only computers but any digital electronic device that is date-sensitive.
Q: Are there other dates besides Jan. 1, 2000, that can cause similar problems?
A: Several dates pose similar problems. July 1, 1999, for example, is the beginning of fiscal year 2000 for many companies and government agencies. Many experts also worry about Sept. 9, 1999, because the date is often stored as 9/9/99, and a string of nines was sometimes used in data files as a type of programming marker. One of the most common errors is the miscalculation of the leap year in 2000. Normally, leap years take place every four years. But a second rule requires that the leap year be skipped every century. Most programmers were aware of the first two rules, but a third rule holds that every four centuries a non-leap year becomes a leap year. The year 2000 is a leap year, but some computers may not expect there to be a Feb. 29.
Q: How long will problems last?
A: Not all year 2000 problems will occur Jan. 1 and then disappear. Because of financial forecasting, advance reservations and other types of computer services that look forward and back in time, the problem could begin months before New Year’s Day and extend months
afterward. Gartner Group, an information technology research and consulting firm, has estimated that only about 10% of failures will take place within two weeks of Jan. 1.
Q: How much has been spent to repair the problem?
A: Estimates on the worldwide cost of repairs vary enormously because they require a high degree of guesswork. One of the more frequently quoted figures comes from Gartner Group, which estimates the cost at $1 trillion, including the cost of lawsuits that are expected to follow.
Q: Are home appliances and consumer electronic products affected?
A: Of the tens of thousands of digital consumer products tested by their manufacturers, very few have turned up any problems with the year 2000. Sony, for example, has found only one consumer product sold in America, a camcorder from the late 1980s, that has any problems.
Q: Will there be power outages?
A: The chance of widespread power outages in the United States appears slim. The North American Electric Reliability Council, a trade group that coordinates electric utilities across the country, reported that as of the end of March, electric utilities had completed more than 75% of their repairs. While there is still the possibility of localized problems, most utilities have taken steps to ensure there will be no serious disruptions during the New Year holidays. In addition, winter is typically a period of low electricity usage.
Q: Will it be safe to fly?
A: So far, no aircraft manufacturer has found any serious problems related to the year 2000. The Federal Aviation Administration has completed repairs on 97% of its mission-critical computer systems. FAA Administrator Jane Garvey has announced her plans to fly coast-to-coast on the rollover to Jan. 1 to demonstrate her confidence in the air traffic control system.
Overseas travel remains a question mark. The State Department has already announced it will begin posting the year 2000 status in various countries later this year to warn travelers of potential problems.
Q: Will automated teller machines work?
A: ATM network operators such as the Star System, ATM makers, the Federal Reserve and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. all say there will be no problems with the machines. The FDIC’s latest year 2000 review found that 97% of banks and savings institutions had satisfactorily prepared.
