Steering Clear of ‘Star Wars’ Prequel’s Orbit

For moviegoers, “Star Wars Episode I: The Phantom Menace” is the most eagerly awaited film in years. For Hollywood studios--other than Fox, which is releasing “Phantom Menace”--it’s a much scarier proposition.

Except for one or two big-budget releases a few weeks before “Phantom Menace” arrives, the remaining studios are staying as far away from the May 19 opening of George Lucas’ preordained blockbuster as possible. But ironically, even though the “Star Wars” prequel is expected to chase the all-time box-office record recently set by “Titanic,” the studios that are avoiding competing with the sci-fi spectacular may lose out on some valuable spillover business, according to industry analysts.

Other than some lower-budget releases and a few efforts to counter-program, the studios are essentially clearing out of town when the expected “Phantom Menace” tidal wave hits.

Three major studios (Disney, Warner Bros. and Paramount) are so light-saber-shy they’re essentially avoiding the merry--and highly lucrative--month of May altogether. And except for a couple of major-city debuts, that’s also the strategy being followed by New Line and Miramax.

“Titanic’s” unprecedented longevity last year resulted in a great many casualties at the other studios--films like “Great Expectations” and “Dark City.” “ ‘Titanic’ knocked a lot of movies out of the box that had expectations to do big grosses,” observes Bob Levin, senior marketing executive at Sony Pictures. “You can’t sail into those waters naively.”

Rather than put themselves in a similar situation last Memorial Day, the decks were cleared for Sony’s “Godzilla.” But when it didn’t perform up to expectations, films like Disney’s “The Horse Whisperer” and Paramount/DreamWorks’ “Deep Impact” were the beneficiaries as well as Fox’s “Hope Floats.”

“Phantom Menace,” which is considered to be as close to a sure thing as there is in Hollywood, is almost guaranteed not to repeat the “Godzilla” pattern. But because of the way Fox and director-producer Lucas are releasing the film, other studios actually stand to benefit from the film’s spillover business. According to Fox senior executive Tom Sherak, the initial engagements for “Phantom Menace” will not resemble the “Godzilla” blitzkrieg--the giant lizard stormed 6,000 screens during its opening weekend. “We’re following a template we established with the release of [the] ‘Star Wars’ special edition a couple of years ago,” Sherak says. The 1997 re-release of the 1977 mega-hit opened in about 2,100 theaters.

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Fox plans to open “Phantom Menace” on 3,800 to 4,000 screens nationwide, which leaves about 24,000 additional first-run venues around the country. If the film, as expected, sells out everywhere, other movies stand to reap significant benefits from the leftover business, particularly from older moviegoers who prefer to wait rather than brave the opening weekend crush.

“[The] ‘Star Wars’ [prequel] is going to create a tidal wave of business. It will benefit every other picture playing in a complex,” says Disney distribution executive Chuck Viane. “Anyone who opens up in front of ‘Star Wars’ [in May] will get a lot of spillover.”

His reasoning is based on Disney’s successful counterattack on other recent blockbusters. When Warner Bros.’ original “Batman” opened in 1989, Disney counter-programmed with “Honey, I Shrunk the Kids.” When Fox’s “Independence Day” debuted, the studio went with “Phenomenon.”

And even when “Titanic” proved to be an unstoppable force, it didn’t prevent “Good Will Hunting” and “As Good as It Gets,” which opened about the same time, from grossing more than $100 million. But this year, “we just didn’t have the right movie,” Viane admits. Disney won’t be in theaters until June 4, when “Instinct,” starring Anthony Hopkins and Cuba Gooding Jr., debuts.

Apparently other studios also feel they don’t have the right film either. Paramount will not venture forth until June 11 with “The General’s Daughter,” a romantic drama starring John Travolta. That’s the same day New Line brings back Austin Powers for the “The Spy Who Shagged Me”--the spy spoof has become the summer’s second-most eagerly awaited film. Warner Bros. is sitting out the summer until July 2 when it lays claim to another major box-office weekend with its putative blockbuster “Wild, Wild West,” starring Will Smith and Kevin Kline.

By and large, however, the studios have decided “if you have a big-star movie, you want to open it on a weekend that’s all your own,” says Nikki Rocco, Universal’s head of distribution. The only high-profile films daring to play opposite “Phantom Menace” are getting to theaters early to garner some attention before the movie becomes a major media event.

Fox will start the summer extra-early this year with its adventure “Entrapment,” starring Sean Connery, which debuts April 30 and has a three-week head start on “Phantom Menace.” Universal will follow with the action adventure “The Mummy,” starring Brendan Fraser, a week later.

As for the dependably lucrative Memorial Day weekend, however, only lower-budget studio releases are being offered. Sony is finally bringing out the much delayed “Arlington Road,” starring Jeff Bridges and Tim Robbins on May 14 and the thriller “Thirteenth Floor” over the Memorial Day weekend. MGM will open “The Extreme Adventures of Super Dave” on May 14, and DreamWorks will counter with its romance “The Love Letter,” starring Kate Capshaw, on May 21.

In addition to “The Mummy,” Universal is looking to score with the raunchy youth comedy “American Pie” (described as a “Porky’s” for the ‘90s) over the Memorial Day weekend, which is the first volley in the summer teen-movie sweepstakes. Its reasoning is that another youth film will draw on “Phantom Menace” patrons over the long weekend.