NATO Strikes Bring Changes for Powers

WASHINGTON —  The last week has been a momentous one for the world’s leading powers.

Nearly lost amid the wrenching upheavals in Kosovo has been a series of larger changes that, while less dramatic, could prove to be of even greater historical importance.

Let’s look at what we have witnessed in recent days:

* Germany and Japan used military force for the first time in more than four decades. The German Luftwaffe sent its Tornado warplanes to take part in the NATO airstrikes in Yugoslavia--the first time Germany had waged war since 1945. The Japanese navy, meanwhile, fired warning shots at two North Korean ships suspected of spying--the first time Japan had resorted to force, even for a warning, since a comparable incident with a Soviet submarine in 1953.

* Russia and China found greater cause to collaborate than at any time since the Sino-Soviet split erupted in the late 1950s. The two countries, which had previously worked together on the U.N. Security Council to try to stop American military action against Iraq, both felt further aggrieved by the NATO airstrikes against Yugoslavia.

China’s statement on Kosovo was revealing. It did not just oppose the NATO operation; it went out of its way to emphasize its alignment with Russia. “China and Russia take similar positions on the Kosovo issue,” announced Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Sun Yuxi. “The two countries often hold consultations on major international issues.”

This is not to suggest that the world is going back to the 1930s and 1940s, when Japan and Germany used military power to gain control over their neighbors. Nor are we returning to the 1950s, when the alliance between the Soviet Union and China was one of the main features of international diplomacy.

Nevertheless, something significant is happening here.

After half a century, the restrictions against the use of force by the two powers defeated in World War II are being eased. Germany and Japan are beginning to behave like normal nations once again.

Of the two, the military endeavor by Germany seemed a bit less noteworthy. Germany is entrenched in the NATO alliance; if it had not taken part in the Yugoslav operations, other countries might fairly have asked why not.

Japan’s warning shots at the North Korean ships, by contrast, appeared to be part of a larger pattern. Over the last year or so, Japan has taken a series of steps seemingly aimed at developing a stronger and more independent military posture, one that depends less on its alliance with the United States.

Some of these actions seem to fly in the face of Japan’s post-World War II constitution, which says that “land, sea and air forces . . . will never be maintained.” But in the United States, the Defense Department isn’t complaining. It is eager for Japan to approve new defense guidelines that will make it easier for the two countries to cooperate in time of war or other emergencies.

In a roundabout way, the U.S. Congress seems to be unintentionally pushing forward the changes in Japan, too.

The recent congressional debate over Kosovo demonstrated the growing influence of isolationist forces within the Republican Party. And that in turn will probably strengthen the hand of those in Japan who say their country can’t rely forever on the United States.

Meanwhile, the NATO operations in Kosovo are likely to prompt Russia and China to explore the possibilities of greater military cooperation. Both countries are worried about America’s willingness to use military power around the world.

“If the preoccupation in Washington is how to win in Yugoslavia, then Russia is irrelevant,” said Russia expert Dimitri Simes, president of the Nixon Center for Peace and Freedom. “But if you are concerned about Russian-Chinese rapprochement or about Russian help for Iran, then there are serious reasons to worry.”

Russia has become China’s leading arms supplier. Yet Simes points out that Russia also has turned down some of China’s requests for advanced weaponry for fear of offending the United States. Now, he said, “I think that some of their calculations may change.”

Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott scoffed at the suggestion that the Clinton administration did not consider the implications for U.S.-Russian relations before the airstrikes in Kosovo.

“Wrong. Of course we thought it through,” Talbott said in an interview. “We’ve been talking to the Russians about Kosovo, including the possible use of force, for 14 months.”

Will Kosovo have a lasting impact on America’s ties with Russia? “It depends upon them,” Talbott answered. “It shouldn’t have. But Russia is going to make its own judgment, based on what its national interest is.” He noted that in Kosovo, America faces “an atrocity of historic proportions.”

Translation: America isn’t going to change its foreign policy on Russia’s behalf, as it might have six years ago. And so, while the world’s other major powers are in flux this week, so is the U.S.

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Jim Mann’s column appears in this space every Wednesday.