Democrats Seem Poised to Retain Brown’s Seat

SAN BERNARDINO —  Throughout the last decade, U.S. Rep. George E. Brown Jr. was an attractive target for the Republican Party, a die-hard liberal Democrat ripe for removal from his increasingly conservative Inland Empire congressional district.

It took death, not politics, to finally remove the 79-year-old Brown from office. He died in July, leaving most of his 14th term uncompleted.

In his absence, however, the Republican Party may have a more difficult time than ever in finally gaining control of the 42nd Congressional District, which runs along the Interstate 10 corridor from Ontario east into San Bernardino.

Brown’s successor will be chosen in a special election Tuesday. And in a district where most voters are registered Democrats, the party is serving up a well-known candidate--a somewhat more conservative state senator who has yet to taste electoral defeat--against a Rancho Cucamonga attorney and residential mortgage broker who lost a race for the same congressional seat last year in his first bid for public office.

Political analysts say they will be greatly surprised if state Sen. Joe Baca (D-Rialto) loses to Elia Pirozzi.

“I don’t sense a lot of anticipation of an upset on the Republican side,” said Stuart Rothenberg, who publishes a Washington-based nonpartisan newsletter that handicaps congressional races.

Republican strategists acknowledge that Pirozzi is the underdog. Winning this seat “has always been an uphill battle,” said Jill Schroeder of the National Republican Congressional Committee, “and it continues to be an uphill battle for us.”

Baca, an elected official for two decades, has long coveted a promotion to Congress. Pirozzi lost to Brown by 15% in the 1998 election. Others on the ballot are Reform Party candidate Rick Simon and Libertarian John Ballard.

Baca arguably faced a tougher battle in September, when he narrowly won his party’s primary nod over Brown’s widow, Marta Macias Brown. While congressional widows usually win election with their party’s endorsement to succeed their husbands, Baca refused to defer, causing some bitterness within Democratic ranks.

One of the questions to be resolved Tuesday is whether Marta Brown’s supporters will now rally around the man who beat her.

“In these special-election runoffs, where the turnout is so low, if you turn off any group of activists within your own party, that can have an impact,” said Republican political consultant Allan Hoffenblum. “The question will be whether the Brown supporters turn out to vote for Baca. If even just a few hundred of them stay home, that can be a significant bloc.”

Brown called for party unity after her bitter loss to Baca, but she has not explicitly endorsed Baca. She could not be reached for comment this week.

However, Democratic leaders say the party is now solidly behind Baca. “Calling for unity means supporting the party nominee,” said Steve Graves, regional director of the Democratic Party. “A lot of Brown’s supporters have been working on Baca’s campaign.”

Baca, who is embraced by organized labor, has voiced supported for a hike in the minimum wage; Pirozzi, who casts himself as a friend of small business, opposes it. On abortion, Baca supports a woman’s right to choose; Pirozzi terms himself a “pro-life candidate.” In the field of education, Baca urges smaller class sizes in public schools, while Pirozzi supports a voucher system allowing parents to select their children’s schools. Pirozzi argues that his Democratic opponent would help sustain a bloated federal bureaucracy; Baca argues that the Republican doesn’t support meaningful tax cuts for the middle class.

Neither candidate embraces a ban on assault weapons, an issue for which Baca--who has enjoyed the support of the National Rifle Assn.--was widely criticized by Marta Brown, who urged stronger gun control measures.

The district’s voter registration favors Democrats over Republicans by about 52% to 33%. But with no other issues on Tuesday’s ballot, a major factor will be which party can best mobilize its voters. Neither candidate can afford to buy Los Angeles television ad time to reach the district’s blue-collar suburbs, so voters are being deluged with direct mail and phone calls.

“In a low-turnout special election, the strategy among the candidates is not so much a matter of coming up with a surprise stand on an issue, or some clever attack pieces, but in identifying their voters, getting campaign material in the right mailboxes, and then pulling their people to the polls to vote,” said Jack Pitney, an associate professor of government at Claremont McKenna College.

Because the seat opened unexpectedly this summer, neither side has had a large campaign coffer. According to campaign financial disclosures through Oct. 27, Baca had raised $569,000, compared to Pirozzi’s $334,000.

Some political observers say the biggest obstacle facing the Republicans is the absence of George Brown, who with his long and storied history as a liberal Democrat struggled to maintain the support of moderate Democrats.

“When I first heard of this open seat, I thought this would be a terrific Republican opportunity,” said Rothenberg. “But when the early surveys came out, it suggested the closeness [in past elections] wasn’t the result of a fundamental drift toward Republicans in the district, but because of George Brown’s own political weaknesses.

“He was the weak link for the party, and without him as the incumbent, the Democrats are in a stronger position than ever, which is an unusual situation,” Rothenberg said. “Baca is conservative enough on some of the social issues that it’s hard to characterize him as a 1960s liberal, like George Brown.”

Pirozzi said his real estate business experience would serve him well in Washington in working for economic development in the Inland Empire.

“The registration numbers are against us,” he said, “but my message is resonating with Democrats and independents,” he said. “Mr. Baca is a formidable candidate, but he’s had his chance [in Sacramento] and now it’s my turn.”

Baca served as a community college trustee before being elected to the Assembly in 1992, and to the state Senate in 1998. It’s precisely that experience in Sacramento, he said, that has prepared him for Washington.

Pirozzi is a “wannabe,” Baca said, and has no legislative track record on which to be judged.

“But I never dismiss anybody” as a political opponent, Baca said. “And the anxiety in this election is in getting out the vote. That’ll be the key factor.”