Choppers Landing Atop the County Hall

You wonder if, any day now, Orange County Supervisor Chuck Smith will follow the lead of the U.S. senator who, in the middle of the Vietnam War, had an idea for how the country could extricate itself.

“Declare victory and get out,” the senator said.

As quagmires go, the board majority’s desire to build an international airport at the former El Toro Marine base is a doozy.

Typical of quagmires, it didn’t start out that way. It began as a simple mission, a worthwhile cause. It made so much sense to so many people.

Why not put a commercial airport in an area where the public was conditioned to military air traffic? Oh, sure, there would be opposition, but the proposed airport presumably had deep and wide citizen support. Two subsequent countywide referendums in the mid-1990s bolstered that notion.

Even so, the five supervisors made a nod early on to the opponents, or so they thought, by scaling down their plans--from 38 million annual passengers to just under 29 million.

But something happened on the way to victory: The opposition proved tougher than expected, and the support proved weak and built on shifting sand.

March 7: A Day of Infamy

This week, the El Toro war appears to be on the verge of possibly claiming one of the generals.

Jan Mittermeier, an airport expert who became the county’s chief executive to help shepherd El Toro, may be about to lose her stripes. I’m not sure how the exact language of her probable exit will be worded, but it’s clear that she’s lost the confidence of a board majority.

She got the ultimate vote of no-confidence when Smith, one of the three board members who had been on her side, publicly acknowledged she had applied for a new job and that, hey, that wasn’t such a bad idea.

Add Smith’s sentiment to that of Supervisors Tom Wilson and Todd Spitzer, who have wrangled with Mittermeier on various issues over the years, and the arithmetic isn’t that tough.

The current fire being taken by Mittermeier is just the latest skirmish in the protracted El Toro battle.

Not to overdo the war metaphor, but just like President Lyndon Johnson during the Vietnam War, the board majority never undertook a concerted all-out blitz to sell Orange County on the airport.

And, in classic Johnsonian style, the board majority dramatically underestimated the opposition. Well-financed and passionate, the anti-airport forces have outfoxed the board majority at virtually every turn.

Smith and other airport supporters have labeled the anti-airport campaign as “propaganda,” but it has worked.

Public support for the airport has dwindled. Not even people who back the airport believe whatever support that exists has any vitality.

And then came Measure F, South County’s equivalent of the Tet Offensive.

However roundabout the strategy originally seemed, Measure F delivered devastating results. At the polls last month, two-thirds of Orange County voters supported it, leaving the airport in a holding pattern.

The anti-airport faction hasn’t slowed down since. TV ads still decry the El Toro airport site and tout alternative uses.

Editorial writers at both daily papers have taken shots at the county’s airport planning process. Airline pilot associations have questioned the takeoff patterns. Influential firms like the Irvine Co. and the Disney Co., while not expressing outright opposition to the airport, haven’t spoken forcefully in support either. And, most recently, leaders in South County and Newport Beach are talking about a possible alliance that would work toward capping John Wayne’s passenger limit and scuttling El Toro plans.

Little wonder that South County airport opponent Len Kranser, who operates an anti-El Toro Web site, describes these as “the best of times, and they’re going to get better.”

When I ask if he dares picture the board abandoning El Toro, Kranser says, “It’s certainly a foreseeable outcome.”

He’s hardly a neutral observer, but Kranser notes, as has Supervisor Smith, that the momentum is all anti-airport.

Momentum can change.

El Toro could still be built.

And Chuck Smith goes to bed every night seeing the light at the end of the tunnel and planning his victory speech.

Dana Parsons’ column appears Wednesday, Friday and Sunday. Readers may reach Parsons by calling (714) 966-7821 or by e-mail to dana.parsons@latimes.com.