For S. Korea’s President, It’s Shaky at the Top

SEOUL —  Although he is planning a historic summit with North Korea and his economic reforms are popular in the West, South Korean President Kim Dae Jung is in danger of becoming a lame duck with nearly three years left in his term.

Facing voters fed up with corruption, party infighting and political gridlock, Kim’s party may fail to muster a majority in parliament in elections Thursday. Even though he himself is not running, the South Korean leader is fighting for his political life, and perhaps his legacy.

A good economic report card doesn’t seem to have helped Kim’s Millennium Democratic Party. National output soared 10.7% in 1999, reversing the 6.7% drop in 1998 that came on the heels of the country’s humiliating $58-billion bailout by the International Monetary Fund.

Nor is the disillusionment likely to be eased by Monday’s announcement of a planned summit between the North and South Korean leaders in June--a victory for Kim’s “Sunshine Policy,” which encourages dialogue between two nations technically still at war.

Rapprochement with North Korea is an emotional and popular issue because so many South Koreans still have relatives in the North. Despite charges from Kim’s political foes that the summit announcement was timed to gain political advantage, it was unclear whether it would affect how people vote.

The public is more “interested in seeing a political process that can work in South Korea going forward,” said Scott Snyder, a representative in Seoul of the Asia Foundation.

The election results could affect both Kim’s domestic and international agendas.

If his party failed to win an outright majority in the country’s 273-seat National Assembly, that would weaken his hand in negotiations with North Korea. It also would make it that much tougher for Kim to further open up South Korea to foreign investment, to reform banks or to untangle the sprawling industrial giants, the chaebols, that still have a stranglehold on many parts of the economy.

Kim, who has been in office a little more than two years, had a parliamentary majority thanks to a coalition with the third-party United Liberal Democrats, but the coalition recently broke apart.

Kim’s party and the main opposition Grand National Party are thought to be running neck and neck ahead of Thursday’s vote, with both well short of a majority. It may be difficult for Kim to rebuild any kind of governing coalition.

Monday’s announcement of the planned summit brought immediate criticism from the Grand National Party about the timing of the news just three days before the election. One of the few clear ideological differences between the two parties has been their stances on North Korea. The opposition party has long criticized Kim for being too soft on its rogue neighbor while the two countries technically are still at war.

Hong Sa Duk, the Grand National Party’s chief campaign manager, charged in remarks reported by the Korea Times that Kim was motivated by the hope of an election victory and glory.

Such political bickering has left many voters still unsure how to vote.

“People keep saying we should change politicians, but there are no proper candidates,” said Park Young Cheul, 50, who saw his restaurant collapse in the country’s economic crisis that began in 1997 and now drives a taxi. Over and over, he let out long sighs when asked how he’ll vote.

“I feel ashamed, as a Korean, that we can’t do anything about current politics,” he said.

The older generation of politicians should retire, Park said.

“Many are too old, elected four or five times--they never abdicate their thrones to the younger generation and younger politicians.”

A 50-ish housewife interviewed in downtown Seoul, who like several other people declined to give her name because she said she feared embarrassing her nation, was so frustrated by the constant bickering that she was nostalgic for past military regimes.

“Kim Dae Jung is doing a good job, but he has to listen to the opinions of his party and people, so he can’t do what he wants,” she said. “We need a dictatorship. . . . [Former] President Park Chung Hee was doing a good job.”

Several scandals have rocked Kim’s administration. In one, “Furgate,” the wives of the justice minister and other officials are accused of having accepted fur coats from a lobbyist. In another, the environment minister quit after accusations that she had accepted bribes. In still another, dubbed “Military Wind,” legislators were accused of freeing their sons from compulsory military service.

The country’s election commission says 16% of the 1,153 candidates running for election Thursday have criminal records that forced them to serve prison terms. About half of those convictions involved politically motivated charges against pro-democracy activities under past military regimes, but the other sentences were for such crimes as bribery, assault and battery, and tax evasion.

Citizens have been barraged with various “blacklists” of unacceptable candidates by civic groups testing their newfound political muscle in this fledgling democracy. The lists cite candidates who have evaded the draft or taxes, been involved in scandals or been associated with previous regimes. The lists are being disseminated via the Internet.

The campaign has struck a nerve with voters, particularly college students.

“I will never, never elect anyone from the blacklist,” said Cho Jin Young, 20, a college student eligible to vote for the first time. The only trouble, she said, was that she didn’t know where to find out exactly who is on the lists.

In addition to political fatigue, the nation is racked by divisive regionalism. The president’s Millennium Democratic Party is popular in the southwestern region of Cholla, from which he hails. Before Kim became president, his party was long the underdog.

Now that the tables are turned and the long-dominant Grand National Party is in the opposition, there is a view from its base in the southeastern part of the country that the president favors Cholla in his economic policies and his political appointments.

Though the country has picked up steam economically, the momentum hasn’t reached many people.

The unemployment rate declined to about 4.6% in March, roughly half of what it was when the economy collapsed, but many people who lost high-paying jobs or their businesses are now scraping by in menial positions.

Political analysts say the election outcome rests with voters in the Seoul metropolitan area, who are more neutral than those in other regions.

In the capital’s Chong Ro district, which includes the Blue House, the South Korean equivalent of the White House, 47-year-old Jung In Bong of the Grand National Party is up against ruling party stalwart Lee Jong Chan, 64, a close associate of Kim and a veteran of four terms in parliament. Lee served as head of the Korean intelligence agency after losing the last election for parliament to a candidate who later was forced to resign because of a scandal.

With sound trucks sporting their images, and wearing sashes across their chests like beauty contestants, both candidates were out stumping on a recent day, stressing their local roots.

Lee also emphasized the importance of continuing the Kim Dae Jung administration.

“As the first election of the millennium, it’s very important that we make the right step,” he told a few dozen voters gathered in a mixed residential and commercial area near where he grew up. “It’s like the first button of the shirt: If it’s wrong, it will be twisted. Kim Dae Jung started reforms, but because of the opposition, he couldn’t get everything done, and so there are many bills pending in the National Assembly.”

Jung is campaigning as “a worker serving the public.”

In contrast to Lee’s emphasis on party, he emphasizes his own agenda. A lawyer who says he has spent Sunday and Monday evenings for several years performing pro bono work for local citizens, Jung has made his main platform a promise to reduce the mandatory tuition fees at public middle and high schools.