McCain Rebounds, Wins Primaries in Michigan, Arizona

By MARK Z. BARABAK

Feb. 23, 2000 12 AM PT

TIMES POLITICAL WRITER

John McCain scored twin victories Tuesday in Michigan and Arizona, bouncing back to seize the momentum from George W. Bush in a seesaw Republican contest that now barrels into California.

Three days after a lopsided defeat in South Carolina, McCain resurrected his candidacy in Michigan by drawing enormous crossover support from Democrats and independents, managing to overcome Bush’s strong backing from Republican regulars.

“What a difference a couple of days make!” the senator from Arizona exulted at a victory rally in Phoenix.

“Today, Michigan sent a powerful message across America. A message that our party wants real reform from the real reformer,” McCain said in a gibe at Bush.

“We are creating a new majority, my friends, a McCain majority,” he went on. The crowd interrupted with wild applause, and then began chanting his name over and over. McCain acknowledged them, then finished his sentence: “And we are Al Gore’s worst nightmare.”

In contrast to the snappish tone of his concession speech Saturday night, McCain reached out to the party establishment arrayed against him, saying: “Don’t fear this campaign, my fellow Republicans. Join it! Join it! This is where you belong, in the spirit of Teddy Roosevelt and Ronald Reagan--Republicans who practiced the politics of addition over the politics of division.”

Arriving at Burbank Airport late Tuesday night to campaign today in Los Angeles, Bush told supporters: “McCain deserves credit for winning Michigan. I deserve credit for winning the Republican vote, overwhelmingly. . . . Every primary is contested now. Everybody knows who he is and everybody knows who I am.”

Bush, who had hoped to wrap up the nomination by this point, said of Michigan: “It’s certainly not a victory. On the other hand, it’s part of a long process. . . . I’m looking forward to the next couple of primaries.”

The Michigan contest was an open primary, like those in New Hampshire and South Carolina, meaning independents and Democrats were free to participate. They did so in huge numbers, giving McCain his margin of victory and giving the state a record turnout.

With 86% of Michigan precincts reporting, McCain had 50% to Bush’s 44%, and 5% for former deputy U.N. ambassador Alan Keyes. In Arizona, with 77% of precincts reporting, McCain had 60% with 36% for Bush and 3% for Keyes.

Exit polls showed Republicans made up less than half the electorate in Michigan: 48%. Independents were 35% and Democrats 17%, and McCain won handily among those voters. In Arizona, balloting was limited to Republicans.

McCain’s victory in Michigan--the first big-state test of the campaign--was by far the more important of the two. A big loss there, even aides conceded, would have effectively handed Bush the nomination. Instead, the contest now heads into a steeplechase of 16 contests over the next 14 days, capped by coast-to-coast primaries from California to New York on March 7.

“This is going to drag on a lot longer than the Bush people would have liked,” Tony Fabrizio, a GOP strategist, said of McCain’s comeback victory. The Arizonan now leads Bush in the quest for delegates needed to win the nomination.

“If they had planned to win this nomination quickly and have a significant amount of money in the bank for the fall election, they’re going to have to rethink that,” said Fabrizio, who is sitting out the primary. “They may wind up broke.”

Michigan was supposed to be the second of Bush’s two “firewall” states, a backup in case South Carolina failed to hold. Less than a month ago, Bush enjoyed a 34-point lead in the polls in Michigan.

He also enjoyed the fervent backing of Gov. John Engler--who commanded ground troops in each of Michigan’s 83 counties--along with the support of virtually all the rest of the state GOP high command.

Bush also boasted a big financial edge over McCain, as he has throughout the campaign season, and had the support of assorted interest groups--from anti-abortion activists to smoker-rights advocates--who spent heavily on Bush’s behalf.

But Michigan differed from South Carolina in several important ways. It is a far bigger, far more diverse state. But more important, Michigan is more centrist politically and less influenced by the Christian right.

“We’re not as conservative as South Carolina and not as liberal as New Hampshire,” said Ed Sarpolus of EPIC/MRA, a nonpartisan polling firm in Lansing. “We’re right in between.”

Michigan Governor Has Many Enemies

Engler’s support--while doubtless helpful to Bush--may not have been an unalloyed blessing. After 10 years in office, he has plenty of enemies, who welcomed the primary as a chance to give the three-term governor--and aspirant to the vice presidency--a high-profile comeuppance.

“There were a lot of people who weren’t happy about Engler’s arrogance about this whole primary, that it would be a cakewalk for Bush,” said Bill Ballenger, who publishes a nonpartisan report on Michigan politics.

In a rare show of public confidence, Engler had openly predicted a 4- to 5-point Bush victory--meaning he probably expected something much larger.

If anything, however, the backing of the governor and his Michigan machine seemed to play to McCain’s anti-establishment image--not a bad thing in a state with a long history of backing political insurgents, from Theodore Roosevelt in 1912 to George C. Wallace in 1968 to Ross Perot in 1992.

Indeed, from the moment he landed in the state early Sunday, limping from his lopsided defeat, McCain sought to seize back the reformist image that Bush took away in South Carolina. He assailed the governor’s record on everything from state spending to tax cuts to McCain’s signature issue of campaign-finance reform.

“If he’s a reformer,” McCain taunted. “I’m an astronaut.”

He also stepped up his attacks on what he called the negative tenor of the Bush campaign, accusing his rival of “character assassination” and flooding the state airwaves with “trash.”

Exit Polls Show Bad Bush Feelings

Unlike South Carolina, McCain’s charges worked against Bush in Michigan, with exit polls showing most voters perceived the senator as the reformer and Bush as the dirtier campaigner.

For his part, the Texas governor arrived in Michigan sounding as though the nomination fight was over. He largely ignored McCain and focused instead on Vice President Gore as he spoke of party unity, cutting taxes and other traditional GOP themes.

“He gave the impression he really didn’t need to work that hard to win it,” said pollster Sarpolus. “That may have convinced some of his supporters they didn’t really need to show up for him.”

Engler, in a television interview aired before the polls closed, pressed the Bush campaign’s contention that the Texas governor had been thwarted by Democrats meddling in the Republican contest.

“There is at least some evidence that there was substantial mischief,” he told MSNBC’s “Hardball.”

“I think again George Bush has run away with the Republican vote. He’s won the Republican primary, but the Michigan primary is open to anyone,” said Engler, who took the blame for the loss.

While McCain and Bush are both generally conservative, they have appealed so far to vastly different constituencies. Bush is the clear-cut favorite of the GOP establishment, going back to last year when he piled up record contributions and unprecedented early endorsements.

McCain, in turn, has emerged as the outsider in the contest, with his push for campaign-finance reform--in the face of resistance from his own party leaders--and his talk of creating “a new Republican Party.”

Never a Question in Arizona

In Arizona, there was never a question who would win. Rather, the Bush campaign hoped to embarrass McCain by minimizing his winning margin.

To that end, Bush vastly outspent McCain on a mail- and TV-advertising blitz intended to depress support for the three-term senator, who was reelected in 1998 with 69% of the vote. Bush also enjoyed the support of Arizona Gov. Jane Dee Hull, who walked precincts for Bush and touted his candidacy in a TV spot that aired heavily in the state.

Bush also received a boost of sorts when the Arizona Republic, the state’s biggest newspaper, withheld its endorsement from McCain. The newspaper, which has long had a contentious relationship with the senator, stayed neutral in the primary.

McCain’s victories earned him all 30 delegates from Arizona and at least 46 of the 58 at stake in Michigan--enough to assume the lead in the race for national delegates. Although Bush gained at least three delegates Tuesday, he only had 67 delegates to date; McCain had 90. A candidate needs 1,034 delegates to win the Republican nomination.

The next contests in the Republican race come later this week in American Samoa, Guam, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Next Tuesday, Republicans in North Dakota, Virginia and Washington state will vote.

The Democratic Party in Michigan will hold caucuses on March 11.

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The Score

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% of votes % of votes in Arizona in Michigan McCain: 60% 50% Bush: 36% 44% Keyes: 3% 5% Other: 1% 1%

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77% of Arizona precincts

86% of Michigan precincts

Delegate Tally

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Ariz. Mich. To date* McCain: 30 46 90 Bush: 0 6 67 Keyes: 0 0 4 Other: 0 0 12

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