McClintock Poll Gives Him Big Lead Over Rivals

Assemblyman Tom McClintock is leading Ventura County Supervisor Judy Mikels by a 4-to-1 margin and Simi Valley lawyer Daniel Gonzalez 2 to 1 in a race to replace retiring state Sen. Cathie Wright (R-Simi Valley), according to a new McClintock poll.

The survey taken this week in the two-county 19th Senate District found that 42% of respondents favored McClintock, a conservative Republican from Northridge, while 9% said they backed Mikels, his moderate Republican opponent in the March 7 primary election.

The poll of 400 likely voters also found that McClintock led Gonzalez 42% to 22%. Gonzalez is unopposed in the Democratic primary and will face either McClintock or Mikels in the fall general election.

Twenty-six percent of voters said they didn’t know whom they favored. Possible margin of error is 5 percentage points.

“I’ve been on the ballot in every election for the last 18 years, and these are the strongest numbers I’ve ever seen,” said McClintock, an anti-tax crusader since first elected to the Assembly in 1982.

But while McClintock staffers said the new poll is a representative sampling of district voters, Mikels challenged its validity.

“I don’t buy those numbers,” she said. “They don’t come out the way ours did. Ours said if we run a [strong] campaign we’re going to be fine. Our poll showed that I was behind in name recognition. But once I was profiled for the voters, 34% were for me and 33% were for McClintock. That told me that, if I continue down the path and stay focused, I can win.”

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Mikels said she could not immediately provide the baseline poll numbers that are the basis for that projection.

“Interestingly enough,” she said, “we ran a poll on my last supervisor’s race three weeks out from election, and it showed my name recognition at 12%. But I won with 69% of the vote. So that’s why I say the only poll that counts is on March 7.”

Gonzalez also questioned the poll results, although he said they are encouraging if true.

“They defy logic,” Gonzalez said. “If the district is as conservative as Tom McClintock would like it to be, Judy Mikels would be closer to him than I am. But if they are true, then I’m in pretty good shape. I haven’t done any campaigning for the primary, and McClintock’s signs are all over the place.”

McClintock said his poll is consistent with others conducted by both parties over the last year and a half. Those showed he had high name recognition and strong support in the west San Fernando Valley and eastern Ventura County.

The 19th District--which includes most of Ventura County and parts of the San Fernando and Santa Clarita valleys--is 42.5% Republican and 39.5% Democrat. Nearly two-thirds of its 389,000 registered voters live in Ventura County.

In the March open primary, voters may cast their ballots for any candidate in a race regardless of political party.

The McClintock poll by Portland-based Moore Information, a nationally known Republican polling firm, surveyed 298 likely voters in Ventura County and 102 in Los Angeles County, said campaign consultant Wayne Johnson in Sacramento.

McClintock was overwhelmingly favored over Mikels by Republicans, Democrats, independents, men and women, Johnson said.

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Among 190 Republican respondents, McClintock led with 63% to Mikels’ 9% and Gonzalez’s 7%--while 21% didn’t know how they would vote. Among 160 Democrats polled, Gonzalez led with 40% to McClintock’s 19% and Mikels’ 9%; 32% did not know.

McClintock was favored by 50 so-called independent voters with a 36% plurality, while Gonzalez had 24% and Mikels 12%. Twenty-seven percent didn’t know how they would vote.

Men favored McClintock 45% to 17% for Gonzalez and 11% for Mikels. Twenty-seven percent did not know. And women favored McClintock 39% to 24% for Gonzalez and 8% for Mikels. Twenty-nine percent did not know.

McClintock, who has represented both Assembly districts that make up the 19th Senate District, also surpassed Mikels in name recognition: Only 41% knew of Mikels, but 81% had heard of him. Gonzalez had 30% recognition.

“I’ve been involved in a lot of high-profile issues for many years,” McClintock said. “[Former Sen.] Ed Davis once told me, ‘A reputation is like a stalagmite. It forms one drop at a time. But over the years it builds into a structure that can’t be knocked over.’ ”