Clinton Calls China Trade Bill a Security Issue

WASHINGTON —  President Clinton stepped up pressure on Congress to approve permanent normal trade ties with China, arguing Sunday that expanded commerce would undermine Beijing’s communist regime, while opponents appeared to be losing their grasp on two pivotal groups of lawmakers.

The accelerating push for the China trade bill, and a desperate bid by opponents to defeat it, came as Congress heads toward its most important vote on trade policy in at least seven years.

Clinton, speaking only days before the House is scheduled to vote on legislation that would end the annual reviews of China’s trading status, made his most forceful case that the choice facing members of Congress affects national security as much as it does global commerce.

“By forcing China to slash subsidies and tariffs that protect inefficient industries, which the Communist Party has long used to exercise day-to-day control, by letting our high-tech companies in to bring the Internet and the information revolution to China, we will be unleashing forces that no totalitarian operation . . . can control,” Clinton said before a group of fellow centrist Democrats in Hyde Park, N.Y.

Such arguments have shifted the terrain of the trade debate in recent weeks away from more traditional questions about whether opening up international markets will cost American jobs. In the view of Clinton and his Cabinet--a view roundly denounced by the bill’s opponents--defeat of the trade bill would strengthen the hand of China’s hard-liners as they seek to depict the United States as an adversary of the Chinese people. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, appearing on ABC-TV’s “This Week,” said the China trade bill represents “the most important national security vote” of the year.

The strategy apparently has helped throw union lobbyists increasingly on the defensive. In recent days labor has lost ground with lawmakers whose votes it needs as it battles the trade bill on Capitol Hill.

But a shrinking group of about two dozen undecided Democratic lawmakers is feeling the heat all the same from television ads in Washington and in their districts and through letter-writing and phone-in campaigns. In the next few days, most will face an all-out lobbying barrage from two competing factions they normally count as friends: the Clinton administration, pushing for the China trade bill, and organized labor, seeking to kill it.

Although Senate passage is considered virtually certain, opponents of the bill insisted that the vote in the 435-member House, which could come as early as Wednesday, remains too close to call.

“Nobody has the votes right now,” said House Minority Whip David E. Bonior (D-Mich.), a key opponent, appearing on CNN’s “Late Edition.”

But GOP House leaders sound more optimistic by the day.

“It’s really been tough to get the votes on this. But we’re doing really well. We’re moving toward that magic number of 218 votes, and I think, in the end, we’ll be able to pass it,” House Majority Whip Tom DeLay of Texas, the chamber’s third-ranking Republican, told “Fox News Sunday.”

Advocates say the bill would enable U.S. businesses to benefit from tariff reductions and other trade concessions made by China as that country prepares to enter the World Trade Organization, which enforces the rules of international commerce. Opponents say China won’t live up to its commitments.

A close look at the roster of supporters and opponents shows that two distinct blocs of lawmakers are joining what appears to be a probable bipartisan majority for passage.

The first group consists of about 190 lawmakers who arrived on Capitol Hill after passage of the North American Free Trade Agreement in 1993 and for whom the China legislation has become the first high-stakes test of their position on global trade.

These members, on balance, are tilting toward the pro-business, free-trade stance of the GOP majority and a minority of centrist Democrats.

The second group consists of nearly 50 more senior House members, mainly Democrats, who joined with organized labor in 1993 to oppose NAFTA but who now are uncommitted or plan to vote for the China trade bill.

Barring unforeseen developments in the final days that might give union lobbyists a come-from-behind victory, labor’s failure to make more substantial inroads with these two groups of lawmakers may be seen as critical.

Just two weeks ago, DeLay had warned that the legislation faced a steep challenge as trade bill advocates intensified their efforts to sway undecided members.

The problem DeLay encountered was twofold: As many as one-third of House Republicans are predictable votes against China trade because of concerns about Beijing’s record of military saber-rattling, espionage and human-rights abuses. Opposing Democrats, meanwhile, can plausibly claim that two-thirds of their ranks will break against the bill, in large part on the argument that expanding trade with China will only improve that country’s capacity as an “export platform” to send goods to the United States. One study touted by opponents estimated that more than 800,000 U.S. jobs would be lost to China in the next decade.

In a House where Republicans hold 222 seats, Democrats 211 and independents two, forging a winning coalition under such conditions would be difficult under the best of circumstances. The upcoming presidential and congressional elections and lingering bitterness over Clinton’s impeachment have compounded the problems.

But the positions taken by lawmakers so far, and past voting records analyzed by The Times, indicate that House Republican leaders and the Clinton administration appear to be successfully threading the political needle on behalf of expanded China trade.

More than 2 of every 5 House members--190 in all--came to Congress after the 1993 vote on NAFTA. Many were swept in on the 1994 electoral tide that brought Republicans to power on Capitol Hill.

Analysis shows that of those 190 members--84 Democrats, 105 Republicans and one independent--90 have indicated they will vote yes, or are leaning toward a yes vote, on the China trade bill. Just 69 oppose the measure or lean against it, and as many 31 are uncommitted.

Typical of the newcomers who support or lean toward passage are Reps. Diana DeGette (D-Colo.), who entered the House in 1997, and James DeMint (R-S.C.), who arrived last year. They acknowledge the path to their decisions has been rocky.

Ultimately, DeGette justified her decision to vote for the bill on the argument that rejecting it would not help advance human rights in China, while approving it would give U.S. businesses improved access to the world’s most populous nation.

DeMint said Friday that he was leaning toward voting for the bill. But he said he has gotten intense pressure on the vote because he represents constituencies sensitive to concerns about labor rights and religious persecution.