Taliban’s Gains in Afghanistan Worry U.S.

WASHINGTON —  A generation after the Soviet invasion launched Afghanistan into a vicious cycle of war, the strict Islamic movement known as the Taliban has scored a series of military victories in recent days that have given it control of more than 95% of the rugged Central Asian nation, according to senior Taliban officials and U.S. intelligence reports.

The latest offensive could mark a turning point both politically and militarily for the Taliban, which seized power in the Afghan capital, Kabul, in 1996. Clinton administration officials say it could also have destabilizing effects in both Asia and Europe.

Washington and Moscow alike are concerned that the Taliban could move more aggressively to export its ideology into Central Asia by aiding Islamic movements now challenging the autocratic former Soviet regimes there.

Like the Hezbollah movement’s success in forcing Israel to abandon southern Lebanon earlier this year, the Taliban triumph over opposition forces supported by Russia, Iran and other countries sends a powerful message about the use of Islam as both a political and a military force.

“The governments of Central Asia and South Asia will see the Taliban’s recent victories as a sign that Islam is on the march, that it can win despite sanctions by the U.S. and U.N. and despite criticism from many parts of the world,” said a U.S. specialist on South Asia who requested anonymity to avoid jeopardizing U.S. diplomatic relationships.

The opposition United National Islamic Front for the Salvation of Afghanistan--which now finds itself cut off from supply lines to Central Asia--has only about a month to reclaim enough key territory to remain a viable political or military force before winter weather isolates its troops.

In a telling sign of the opposition’s losses, half a dozen of the Islamic Front’s key commanders and their troops have defected to the Taliban, a front spokesman acknowledged Saturday.

“Unless the opposition can pull off a miracle very quickly, the war may be almost over,” said a senior Clinton administration official who said he could discuss the situation only on condition of anonymity. “It’s not a total defeat, because there have always been pockets in the countryside beyond control and there probably always will be. But 95% is about as close as any party has ever gotten in ruling that deeply divided country.”

The opposition’s losses have triggered an exodus of tens of thousands of Afghans toward Central Asia, prompting Russia to reinforce its own southern border and the border between Afghanistan and Tajikistan, a former Soviet republic where Russia has troops stationed.

In addition, both Russia and India have expressed growing concern to the U.S. about a potential joint Afghan-Pakistani front that could reshape the politics of the strategic but volatile regions of Central and South Asia. Last week, Russia sent an envoy to Pakistan to press the government to rein in the Taliban and help organize peace talks between the warring sides.

Russia is particularly concerned about Tajikistan, which is still struggling to regain stability after its own civil conflict, and about the impoverished Fergana Valley shared by Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, an area of strong Islamic sentiment. Afghanistan has also been a principal backer of the Muslim rebellion in the Russian republic of Chechnya.

Collaboration between Afghanistan and Pakistan was a key topic during Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee’s visit to Washington two weeks ago. Washington and New Delhi share concern about the direct and indirect implications of the Taliban’s recent victories for the Muslim campaign in Kashmir, to which both India and Pakistan lay claim. Thousands of Islamic militants have trained in Afghanistan and been supplied by Pakistan.

The United States is not yet writing off Afghanistan’s opposition Islamic Front, formerly known as the Northern Alliance, which is led by Gen. Ahmed Shah Masoud. A U.S. official involved in monitoring Afghanistan described him as “one of the greatest guerrilla warriors since Ho Chi Minh” of Vietnam.

But Masoud, who was a U.S.-backed moujahedeen commander against the Soviets but is now supported by Russia, has so far been unable to recoup territorial losses, as he did after summer offensives over the past five years. The difference this time is Pakistan’s growing military assistance to the Taliban, according to U.S. intelligence reports.

Although the Afghan and Pakistani governments vehemently deny joint efforts, Pakistan has increased its aid and helped plan the Taliban’s spring and summer offensives, U.S. sources say.

Nightly flights ferry goods into Afghan cities from Pakistan.

U.S. officials are now trying to determine the long-term intentions of Pakistani leader Gen. Pervez Musharraf, who assumed power a year ago after a military coup ousted democratically elected Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif.

“What does this say about the Pakistani military’s strategy in the region?” asked the senior U.S. official. “To what end did Musharraf decide to consolidate his grip or his allies’ grip on Afghanistan?”

To convert its territorial gains to political advantage, the Taliban has launched a major diplomatic offensive in world capitals to win long-sought recognition as Afghanistan’s only legitimate government.

It currently has official diplomatic relations with only three countries: Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and the United Arab Emirates.

A Taliban delegation headed by Deputy Foreign Minister Abdur Rahman Zahid held talks Friday at the State Department in Washington. The delegation also pressed its case last month at the U.N., where the previous Afghan government, headed by President Burhanuddin Rabbani, which was ousted by the Taliban, still holds the U.N. seat.

Assistant Secretary of State for South Asia Karl F. Inderfurth described Friday’s talks as “frank and straightforward” and said the two sides will hold future discussions.

The U.S.-Taliban talks centered on key areas of U.S. concern. At the top of the list is the Taliban’s support for terrorism, most notably renegade Saudi militant Osama bin Laden and his network of followers. Bin Laden, who now lives in Afghanistan, is on the FBI’s 10 most-wanted list because of his alleged role in orchestrating the 1998 U.S. Embassy bombings in Kenya and Tanzania, which killed more than 220 people and injured more than 5,000. The United States has offered a $5-million reward for his capture.

At the same time, Washington is deeply concerned about Afghanistan’s production and trafficking in narcotics, a major source of income for its war-ravaged economy. Afghanistan is today the world’s largest source of heroin.

The State Department also pressed the Taliban on its human rights record, especially its policies that limit education and employment of females.

Zahid declared that “no one had proven any Afghan was involved” in terrorism. He said Bin Laden is under “our total control” and is “not allowed to initiate anything from Afghanistan.” He said the Taliban has proposed enlisting religious scholars from the Organization of the Islamic Conference, or representatives of the three Muslim countries that recognize the Kabul regime, to help find a solution to the Bin Laden problem.

“We want good relations with all countries, including the United States,” Zahid said. “We were good friends during the jihad [against Soviet occupation] and we would like again to extend the hand of friendship.”

U.S. officials dispute all of the Taliban’s claims. But they also acknowledge that the Taliban now has a much stronger case to make as the only real power in Afghanistan.