County Voters Go Their Own Way

Orange County voters are falling away from the Republican and Democratic parties as the percentage of people registering as independents and members of third parties has surged to historic levels in advance of the Nov. 7 election.

For the first time in 20 years, the GOP does not have an absolute majority going into a general election, with just 49.2% of the voters now calling themselves Republicans.

The percentage of Democrats in Orange County, meanwhile, has fallen to its lowest level in nearly a half-century, at just 32.2% of the electorate.

Those voters abandoning the two major parties have registered, but check “decline to state” or chose a minor party--usually Green, Reform, American Independent, Libertarian or Natural Law.

Political scientists and consultants say the trend is mirrored around the country.

“The political party system is collapsing, and we’re moving away from a party system,” said Fred Smoller, an associate professor of political science at Chapman University. “The sense [is] that the ideas that connect the parties are so close together. They’re getting money from the same places. A large number of people want nothing to do with it.”

Some of the movement away from the two parties can be attributed to a suspicion of government seeded by the Vietnam War and Watergate.

The number of Americans who say they trust government to do the right thing most of time has reversed from three-quarters saying yes in the mid-1960s to three-quarters saying no today, according to Keith Boyum, head of the Center for Public Policy at Cal State Fullerton.

Statewide figures from last February, the latest available, show 47.4% of registered voters were Democrats, 36.8% Republicans, and 19.2% declined to state or registered for a minor party.

One factor discouraging party registration was the California initiative passed in 1996 that allowed voters to participate in any party’s primary. However, in June, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled the initiative unconstitutional.

*

Despite the loosening of party loyalty, the 1,342,746 who have registered to vote is an Orange County record. Republicans have 660,561 voters in their fold; Democrats have 431,695.

And while their percentages are down, Orange County has the third greatest number of Democrats in the state, behind Los Angeles and San Diego counties.

The last time Democrats led in county registration was in 1978, when they edged ahead, 45.8% to 45.5% as a result of Watergate.

Since then, however, Democratic registration has fallen steadily in general elections.

GOP registration peaked in 1988, the year George Bush was elected president, with 55%, but has dropped in every election since.

The category with the biggest gain has been that of voters affiliating with neither party. Except for slight dips in 1964 and 1988, the percentage of voters registering as neither Democrat nor Republican has moved consistently upward, from 3.7% during the Dwight D. Eisenhower presidency to the current 18.6%.

Despite their party’s declining percentages, Orange County Democratic candidates have been making inroads, most prominently with Rep. Loretta Sanchez’s (D-Garden Grove) victory over Republican incumbent Robert K. Dornan in 1996. Since then, Democrats have won two seats in the state Legislature from the central part of the county.

Orange County Republicans, though, may find encouragement from their drop below 50%. When the party hit its lowest registration number in modern times--46% in 1980--Ronald Reagan was elected president.

* Contributing to this story was staff writer Brady MacDonald.

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

GOP Loses Majority in O.C.

For the first time since 1980, Republicans in Orange County dropped below 50% of all registered voters during a presidential election year, according to figure released by the registrar of voters.

More Register, Fewer Vote

While Orange County voter registration has continued to climb in the past half-century, turnout has declined in recent elections.

Registered voters

1956: 192,937

2000: 1,342,746

Source: Orange County Registrar of Voters