War Chest Data Due in Governor’s Race

Some of the bigger questions looming over next year’s governor’s race could be answered this week, as candidates reveal how much they’ve raised toward the race thus far.

The Tuesday filing deadline on financial activity in the first six months of this year is expected to offer an early glimpse at how formidable Gov. Gray Davis will be.

The reports also could show whether Davis’ two declared Republican opponents, Secretary of State Bill Jones and investment banker Bill Simon, the son of a former U.S. Treasury Secretary, have suffered as donors await word on whether former Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan is officially in the race.

Few doubt that Davis will break the record for gubernatorial financing. The only question, say analysts, is by how much.

Davis was setting an early fund-raising rate of $1 million a month last year.

Whispers of a $30-million war chest are legion, and, analysts say, not likely to be far off the mark.

“I think everyone assumes Gray Davis will have $30 million to $35 million in the bank,” said Kam Kuwata, a political consultant and top advisor for the James K. Hahn mayoral campaign.

“For Bill Simon and Dick Riordan, it doesn’t matter what they have because they have the ability to self-finance,” Kuwata said.

Jones, the state’s highest elections official, will have to show figures reflecting deepening support despite Riordan’s feints at running, according to analysts.

“I would be curious to see how it impacted his numbers,” said political consultant John Shallman, who was deputy director of Riordan’s first mayoral campaign.

“It would be my expectation he had a rough time,” he said. “Jones was in the position of being the front-runner. Now Riordan being in the race and public opinion showing he’s now the front-runner can’t help but hurt his campaign.”

Last week, Riordan filed papers allowing him to raise money for an exploratory campaign, and has no financial filing requirement until January, just three months before the GOP primary.

His shadow, however, has been over the campaign for two months.

Riordan has begun traveling the state--with stops in Sacramento, San Diego and the Central Valley--and is soliciting money along the way, said David Gould, Riordan’s campaign treasurer.

The former two-term mayor also visited Washington, where the White House political team urged him to run for the governor’s seat.

“I would guess big Republican money is looking for direction, at what signals have been given to Republican givers from the president, since the word is it was the president who encouraged Riordan to run,” Shallman said.

Nonetheless, one analyst cautioned against reading too much into the first look at financing, more than a year ahead of the race.

“In this state, we’ve seen time and time again big-money candidates losing,” said Arnold Steinberg, a political strategist who has discussed with Riordan his prospective candidacy.

“Many candidates have spent more than their opponents and lost. I’d much rather be in Gray Davis’ position and have his kind of war chest, but we have seen many races in which, unless you have the right message in a well-choreographed campaign, money is not enough.”