Southwest Rises as New Political Battleground

SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. —  Not far from the boulevard named for Republican icon Barry Goldwater, state Democrats have staked new turf, opening their first storefront office in this well-moneyed town where they’re outnumbered among voters nearly 3 to 1.

For Democrats, the humble office with donated furniture is a base camp for what they hope is a remaking of the state’s political future. Rallying behind the first Democratic governor in Arizona since 1982 and other indications of party growth, they’re crowding fundraisers and staging rallies in an effort to remake the political landscape in one of the nation’s fastest-growing, most ethnically diverse states.

“It’s all about resuscitating a Democratic Party that in Arizona has long been given up for dead,” said Scottsdale party organizer Laura Roskind.

And a key to that effort is the state’s early primary. Arizona Democrats -- along with their New Mexico counterparts -- this year pushed their nominating contests to the front of the political calendar.

The votes, among seven primaries or caucuses scheduled for Feb. 3, promise to give the Southwest newfound prominence in deciding which Democratic candidate will oppose President Bush next November. A strong showing in the two states could prove a particular boost for a candidate, some say.

With their growing suburban areas and burgeoning Latino populations, Arizona and New Mexico have become bellwethers for other Western states, including California. The two states also exemplify the nation’s changing demographics to a greater degree than Iowa or New Hampshire, where the nomination fight begins in January.

“We’re more reflective of the diversity America will see in the coming years,” said New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, a Democrat. “We’re moderate states where the political power is shared between Democrats and Republicans. This is where the real battle for president is going to shape up.”

The 2000 presidential results underscore Richardson’s assessment. Bush carried Arizona by 6 percentage points -- less than his supporters had anticipated -- while Al Gore won New Mexico by a mere 366 votes.

The race among the 2004 Democratic presidential hopefuls in Arizona and New Mexico appears wide open, unlike the situation in some other early-voting states. Sensing opportunity, most Democratic candidates have opened local offices, solicited key endorsements and brushed up on their phrase-book Spanish during regular stump visits. Of six nationwide Democratic debates so far, two have been held in the region.

“The state has seen a lot of candidates vying for its loyalty,” said Earl de Berge, director of the Phoenix-based Behavior Research Center, a regional polling group. “Arizona hasn’t had this kind of national attention, of being a Democratic combat zone. It can’t help but raise the political temperature.”

The process also has increased the candidates’ focus on such vital Western issues as water rights, immigration policy and Native American gaming.

“The Southwest is still anybody’s game,” said Arizona state Democratic Chairman James Pederson. “The winning candidate will be the one who visits here the most, who does the best job galvanizing the issues important to the people who live here.”

The campaign has already seen Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut tour Arizona and listen to residents fret over the porous border with Mexico. It has seen former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, retired Army Gen. Wesley K. Clark and Rep. Dennis J. Kucinich of Ohio all don Native American blankets at the National Congress of American Indians meeting last month in Albuquerque. And it has seen Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina field questions recently about health care at a Latino medical clinic in Santa Fe, N.M.

“We’re treating these states very seriously,” said Frank Costanzo, Dean’s Arizona campaign director. “We all have strong organizations here because we all know states like Arizona represent a cross-section of the rest of the United States.”

The most recent statewide poll comparing the candidates -- conducted after the Oct. 9 Democratic debate in Phoenix -- showed Dean, Clark and Lieberman bunched at the top but with relatively slight support.

The poll also showed that 41% of Democrats queried said they had yet to pick a candidate.

Stressing his antiwar, anti-establishment message, Dean appears to be strong among male and Latino voters, according to the Rocky Mountain Poll. This weekend, Dean supporters were to be on a bus caravan, called the Southwest Voter Express, through the region. The candidate is due back in Arizona in mid-December.

Clark, whose following is heavily white and upper-income, according to the poll, recently began airing a 60-second advertisement in Arizona highlighting his military career. Last week, he opened his Arizona headquarters and announced that former Phoenix Mayor Paul Johnson would serve as the campaign’s state chairman.

Lieberman’s image as a moderate appeals to voters here, pollsters say. With his decision to skip the Iowa caucuses, his chances of remaining a viable contender for his party’s presidential nod hinge in part on doing well in several of the Feb. 3 contests.

Campaigning Democrats have encountered a region that is diverse and complex. Arizona’s population has soared in the last decade, with the state gaining 150,000 residents each year. The percentage of conservative retirees has declined, replaced by voters between 25 and 44 years old who compose about 40% of the state’s 2.2 million voters. Nine of 10 residents live in urban and suburban areas.

Democratic strategists hope to do a better job of harnessing the Latino vote in a state that has seen that portion of its population rise by 88% since 1990 -- to one-fourth of the state’s more than 5 million residents.

Although 80% of the state’s Latino voters are registered Democrats, about 40% crossed party lines to vote for Bush in 2000, according to pollster De Berge. But he said that based on recent surveys by his group, more Latinos intended to vote along party lines next year.

Democratic Gov. Janet Napolitano, elected last year, says her party continues to make strides in conservative Arizona -- the only state to vote Republican in presidential elections every year between 1952 and 1992. (President Clinton broke the streak, carrying the state by a small margin in 1996.)

“This is a state in transition; you can just smell the energy here,” Napolitano said, adding that the state party’s $7-million political war chest is eight times larger than it was a few years ago.

She said one local Democratic fundraising event that typically attracted only a few hundred people -- “mostly cops” -- now sells out, with nearly 1,000 contributors in attendance.

And while both houses of the Arizona Legislature remain controlled by Republicans, Napolitano has continually used her veto power to rally support for Democratic budget measures that would have normally gone down to defeat.

“For the first time in years, we’re seeing a lively debate in Arizona’s halls of power,” said Bruce Merrill, an Arizona State University professor. “The Democrats seem revitalized.”

Richardson, the New Mexico governor, said his hope was that the interest in his state and Arizona among the Democratic candidates will continue if the party claims the White House.

“The image I carry is seeing Howard Dean draped in an Indian blanket [in Albuquerque], talking about Native American self-determination and sovereignty,” he said. “This is what having an early primary accomplishes. If he goes to the White House, he might remember wearing that blanket.”