USC Is Crunched by the Numbers

Humans say USC’s football team is No. 1 in the country.

Computers say the Trojans are No. 3.

As a result, Oklahoma and Louisiana State will meet in the bowl championship series’ national-title game on Jan. 4 in New Orleans; USC will make its 29th appearance in the Rose Bowl on New Year’s Day, facing Big Ten champion Michigan.

“We’re real proud of where we are, excited as we can be to be playing in the Rose Bowl, and to be the No. 1 team in America,” USC Coach Pete Carroll said. “This is a national-championship game for us.”

USC’s exclusion from the BCS championship game became official Sunday afternoon, when BCS officials announced Oklahoma and LSU had finished 1-2 in the computer-assisted rankings, with the Trojans third.

But the Trojans knew Saturday night, following their 52-28 victory over Oregon State, that they were in a precarious situation because of a BCS factor that rates the relative strength of teams’ opponents.

This made Hawaii’s game late Saturday crucial for USC. Because the Trojans had earlier defeated Hawaii, a victory by Hawaii over No. 18 Boise State would have enhanced USC’s schedule strength.

But at 12:17 a.m. Pacific time, Boise State won, 45-28, sealing the Trojans’ fate.

USC’s absence from the championship game appeared likely to increase pressure on those who run college football to scrap the six-year-old BCS when its contract expires after the 2005 season, or modify it as soon as next season.

“I’d relish that,” Carroll said Sunday. “It seems so crazy that I’m watching Hawaii against Boise State at midnight and it matters to us. I don’t have all the answers but I think it’s clear there are some issues.”

Earlier Sunday, the 65 sports reporters polled by the Associated Press and the 63 coaches in the USA Today/ESPN poll picked USC first, followed by LSU and Oklahoma. (The Los Angeles Times does not vote in the media poll.)

These polls are incorporated in the BCS tally, along with rankings by seven independent computer analysts, the strength of schedule and other factors.

When the final BCS tabulations were disclosed, Oklahoma, with 12 wins and one loss, had retained its top spot despite a decisive 35-7 loss to Kansas State on Saturday night in the Big 12 championship game. LSU, following a 34-13 victory over Georgia in the Southeastern Conference championship game, climbed to No. 2 in part because it was judged to have played a tougher schedule than USC.

The final BCS standings had Oklahoma with 5.11 points followed by LSU with 5.99 and USC with 6.15. The difference of 0.16 points between LSU (12-1) and 11-1 USC is the second-closest finish in the BCS’ six-year history. In 2001, Nebraska beat Colorado by 0.05 points after losing to the Buffaloes, 62-36, in its final regular season game. The Cornhuskers went on to lose the Rose Bowl, 37-14, to Miami.

This leaves USC playing 10-2 Michigan, ranked No. 4 in the BCS and both traditional polls, in what Carroll called “a retro Rose Bowl.” Should the Trojans win in their 21st Rose Bowl appearance, they could claim the AP version of the national championship if that poll’s voters keep them at No. 1. The Sugar Bowl winner, meanwhile, will receive a crystal football symbolic of the BCS championship.

The BCS was created in 1998 to prevent dual national champions and subdue sentiment for a playoff.

The six most powerful football conferences -- the Pac-10, Big Ten, Southeastern, Big 12, Big East and Atlantic Coast -- along with television executives and the heads of the Rose, Sugar, Orange and Fiesta bowls, crafted a system that combines the human poll rankings with the seven computer programs. But in two of the last three years, a team that lost decisively in its final game and failed to win its conference championship was afforded a shot at No. 1.

“With the events this year,” BCS Coordinator Mike Tranghese said Sunday, “we’d be foolish if we didn’t look at this again in the spring.”

Some Trojan players who showed up on campus Sunday were confused by the BCS outcome. Freshman running back Reggie Bush held a bouquet of roses that Carroll had received from Mike Riffey, president and chairman of the Rose Bowl.

“What do I do with these, coach?” Bush asked Carroll.

“Whatever you want,” Carroll said.

Sunday’s big winner was the Rose Bowl.

“Our kids have mostly grown up in the BCS generation,” Carroll said. “But look down the halls here. It’s Rose Bowl, Rose Bowl, Rose Bowl. USC has won eight national championships. [Seven] of them [have] come after winning the Rose Bowl.”

“If we win the Rose Bowl,” punter Tom Malone said, “we will call ourselves national champs.”

Tranghese, also commissioner of the Big East, said that “at the end of the day, strength of schedule turned out to be the determining factor.”

USC was hurt by unexpectedly mediocre seasons turned in by traditional powerhouses Auburn, Notre Dame and BYU -- all teams defeated by the Trojans -- and by an unexpected paucity of strong teams in the Pacific 10, the conference of which USC is champion.

USC Athletic Director Mike Garrett said there are some benefits to USC playing in the Rose Bowl. There will be 32,000 tickets available to USC for the Pasadena game, he said, compared with only 16,000 tickets that would have been available for the Sugar Bowl. He noted that the Pac-10 had agreed to participate in the BCS system.

“It’s what we have,” Garrett said. “We’re talking about a contract we signed on to. Things don’t always work out how you want.”

On the USC campus, some students weren’t satisfied.

“The BCS should check themselves before they wreck themselves,” said Richard Ujadughele, a junior from Bellflower. “After the game yesterday, I thought it was a sure thing we were going to the Sugar Bowl. I was even calling up travel agents, trying to find packages.”

Added Aiko Makino, a junior from Arcadia: “When we all got up today and heard the news about the BCS, it broke a lot of USC student hearts. It just makes no sense to me. How can a team like Oklahoma lose so badly and not win its conference and still go to the Sugar Bowl?”

Oklahoma Coach Bob Stoops rejected the notion that his team didn’t belong in the championship game. “There’s nothing to apologize for.”

LSU Coach Nick Saban suggested the need for some form of playoff. “I don’t think anyone will know who the legitimate national champion is unless all three teams in consideration get the opportunity to play one another,” he said.

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(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX)

BCS bowl games

BCS bowl games for the 2003 season, with the sites, dates, times (Pacific standard), television and teams:

Rose Bowl

No. 3 USC vs. No. 4 Michigan:

at Pasadena, Jan. 1, 1:30 p.m.,

Ch. 7

Orange Bowl

No. 7 Florida State vs.

No. 9 Miami: at Miami, Jan. 1,

5:30 p.m., Ch. 7

Fiesta Bowl

No. 10 Kansas State vs.

No. 5 Ohio State: at Tempe, Ariz., Jan. 2, 5 p.m., Ch. 7

Sugar Bowl

No. 2 Louisiana State vs.

No. 1 Oklahoma: at New Orleans, Jan. 4, 5 p.m., Ch. 7

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Associated Press contributed to this report.