Will Arnold Change Careers if His Film Flops?

Yes, California, it’s almost time to mark another Fourth of July. But fireworks will be only a small part of a weeklong celebration of the democratic process.

On Tuesday, the quarreling children of the Legislature are expected to stage a complete meltdown, blow the budget deadline and send the state into further chaos.

On Wednesday, Californians can determine the state’s political future by deciding whether to go see “Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines.”

Arnold Schwarzenegger is the star of the movie, and if it’s a box office hit, he may decide to star in “Terminator 4, 5 and 6.” If the movie tanks, he might figure his film career is kaput and run against Gov. Gray Davis, provided the recall drive makes the ballot.

As far as I can determine, this will be the first time in history that the outcome of a campaign will be based on popcorn sales. But that makes it the perfect setup for Californians, who don’t take politics very seriously.

If you think it would be a disaster to have a former bodybuilder with absolutely no political experience as governor, you should go to the movie at least twice a day Wednesday through Sunday.

If you think Conan the Republican is the answer to the state’s problems, you should boycott “Terminator 3” and tell your friends to do the same.

Yes, it all sounds bizarre, but that’s part of the contract when you live in California. Maybe we should hold all our elections in movie theaters.

In staging this recall and blocking any budget resolution that might take the heat off Gray Davis, state Republicans have managed the impossible dream of making the governor seem sympathetic.

Sure, he was less than forthcoming about the state’s budget woes, and his fund-raising has been manic from Day 1.

But by those measures, shouldn’t we recall President Bush? He pushed through a huge tax cut without being honest about the budget woes it will create, and that’s only the beginning of his credibility problems.

I digress, though. What I’d like to do today is handicap the candidates.

Although Rep. Darrell Issa has bankrolled the recall campaign, the truth is that the Republican leadership would rather have Mr. Ed as its candidate. That’s not just because Issa is too far to the right for California tastes, but because Mr. Ed was never accused of stealing cars. (The charges, involving a theft when he was 18, were dismissed.)

Many Republicans don’t even want the recall to go forward. They think it’s much smarter to let Davis slowly twist in the wind. Then, in 2006, the GOP sends us Condoleezza Rice as savior and fairy godmother. But in politics, good sense never stands in the way of blind ambition.

Bill “Simple” Simon Jr., who came closer to beating Davis last time around than most people expected, wants another crack at it. But nobody I know is turning flips over the second coming of a man who ran the most inept campaign in the history of American politics.

Former L.A. Mayor Dick Riordan, who got poked in the eye in the last dance, would love to be governor, but his wife won’t let him. So Riordan is prepared to be a corner man this time, and send “The Terminator” into the ring against Davis.

That’s all fine and good, but they’re forgetting one thing.

Arnold -- with his moderate politics, fat assets and sky-high name recognition -- might be able to take that pencil-neck Davis, and he might be able to put down the “Rise of the Machines.”

But he can’t take me.

As I said last week, if it’s going to be a circus in which a guy can be considered a player without uttering a word about what he believes in, and 10% to 20% of the vote in a scattered field can get you over the top, let’s send in the best clown.

I’ve lived places where dead people won elections, and I’m just as qualified as they were. That’s why I announced my candidacy last week. And the reaction, my fellow Californians, can only be described as a mandate.

I stopped counting, at a couple of hundred, the messages from people who eagerly volunteered to sign my nominating petition (there’ll be free empanadas for campaign workers). And my campaign strategy is coming from Garry South, the Gray Davis creator who strikes mortal fear in -- guess who.

The former Mr. Universe.

When Schwarzenegger badmouthed Davis a couple of years ago, South torched the Terminator. He faxed reporters copies of a Premiere magazine article alleging indiscretions in Arnold’s personal life.

“The Schwarzenegger machine’s hysterical overreaction bordered on the ludicrous,” South wrote this year in an op-ed piece for The Times, wondering if Arnold’s got a sturdy enough jaw to survive a gubernatorial campaign.

“He’s in for the shock of his life,” South went on. “Resourceful, well-paid ‘opposition researchers’ ... will turn over every rock in Schwarzenegger’s life.”

Do yourself and the great state of California a favor this holiday week. Raise a flag, skip the movie and launch Arnold’s political career.

I can’t wait for the day when I can look him in the eye and utter his only memorable line from “Terminator 2”:

Hasta la vista, baby.

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Steve Lopez for Governor: I May Be Gray, but I’m No Davis. Contact campaign headquarters at steve.lopez@latimes.com.