Dean’s Sights Already Set on Beating Bush in ’04

HOUSTON —  With the first presidential contests in Iowa and New Hampshire two months away, Democratic front-runner Howard Dean has been campaigning hard in some unexpected places.

The former Vermont governor has stumped in 14 states this month, including some with late primaries -- Oregon, Idaho, Florida and Pennsylvania. This week alone, he is visiting seven states, including Texas, Michigan and New York.

While his competitors focus their energies on half a dozen early-primary states, Dean has already segued into general-election mode by dashing around the country, hoping to create a sense of inevitability about his selection as the Democratic nominee.

“We’ve proven over two quarters that we can compete with the Democratic field,” campaign manager Joe Trippi said. “Now, this is about building a campaign that can defeat George Bush.”

The broad and ambitious nature of his schedule is similar to the tack adopted by presidential front-runners such as George W. Bush, Al Gore and Walter F. Mondale in previous primary campaigns, and underscores the relentlessness with which the onetime unknown candidate is seeking his party’s top prize.

Of the top-tier Democratic candidates, Dean is in a singular position to pursue a strong national campaign, in part because of his financial resources and lack of spending constraints, now that he has opted out of public financing. But his strategy is not without risks.

If he wins the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary in January, Dean would be poised to sweep through other states and secure the nomination. However, if he spreads himself too thin and fails to hold off his competitors in the early states, his campaign could be viewed as faltering. Recent polls showed him slightly behind Missouri Rep. Richard A. Gephardt in Iowa.

“The question is, in trying to put together a national campaign, is he creating a soft underbelly in Iowa and New Hampshire?” asked Stuart Rothenberg, an independent analyst and publisher of the Rothenberg Political Report.Dean acknowledges the gamble he’s taking. Other candidates “are camping out in their respective states, and I’ve got to split my time, plus raise money,” he said in an interview on a flight to Portland, Ore., last week. “So it’s tough for us. We’re going to have to recalibrate every few days to find out what’s going on elsewhere.”

His advisors are convinced that Dean’s national effort will put him in a strong position to challenge President Bush later next year.

“The mistake is to hunker down into a one-state strategy aimed at trying to do a blocking movement in the hopes that you might catch fire later on,” Trippi said.

If Dean could simultaneously shore up support in the early states and broaden his appeal elsewhere, he could also help resolve doubts that Democratic voters have about his electability, some political experts say.

“If there are reservations about Dean in the party, it’s about how he’s going to do in a general election,” said Charlie Cook, a nonpartisan campaign analyst based in Washington.

“For the Dean campaign to give a preview of coming attractions and show them, ‘This is what it would look and sound like,’ it tells people that they don’t have anything to worry about,” Cook said.

As Dean crisscrosses the country, the energy and discipline that have powered his campaign so far are on full display.

He frequently travels several time zones a day. After a full day of meeting with voters in Iowa on Nov. 11, he flew west to Portland, for his third visit this year to Oregon, which doesn’t hold its primary until May. That night, he headed across the country to Washington.

“You gotta keep the momentum up,” he said, popping peanut M&M;’s as he settled in for a flight, halfway through his 19-hour day.

The next day, after securing the endorsements of the Service Employees International Union and the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees -- two of the country’s most influential labor unions -- Dean barely paused to relish the moment.

As his small jet taxied for takeoff, ferrying him north for a day of campaigning in New Hampshire, Dean punched at his cellphone, pressing other union leaders to support him.

The former governor is hoping that even if he does not shoot past his opponents in Iowa and New Hampshire, he will be positioned to compete against them in the flurry of state primaries in February and March.

“He is maybe the only guy right now who can run a sprint as well as a marathon,” Rothenberg said. “He could put the race away with two quick wins. On the other hand, if this becomes a long, drawn-out fight for nomination, he’s building a national campaign.”

The campaign has run television commercials in seven states besides Iowa and New Hampshire, including Texas, Oklahoma and Washington back in August.

During a stop in New Mexico on Wednesday, Gov. Bill Richardson went out of his way to praise Dean’s broad campaign, even though as chair of the Democratic National Convention, he is remaining neutral in the race.

“He’s been to New Mexico more than any other presidential candidate, and he certainly has the strongest organization here,” Richardson said.

Dean went on the air in New Mexico with a Spanish-language television commercial at the end of September, and he picked up a score of Latino endorsements there this week.

One advantage Dean has had in building an expansive campaign early in the season is time. He ended his last term as governor in January, which freed him up to campaign full-time.”He plowed a lot of ground early, and so was in a position to take advantage of the national momentum when it hit,” said Democratic strategist Anita Dunn, who is not affiliated with any of the campaigns.

Dean also has the benefit of financial resources. Through the end of September, the former governor had raised $25 million, substantially ahead of Gephardt and Massachusetts Sen. John F. Kerry. After deciding this month to decline public financing, Dean set the ambitious goal of raising $200 million in small donations.

The campaign already has 17 state directors working full-time. Kerry has 12 paid state directors, retired Army Gen. Wesley K. Clark has nine, and Gephardt has eight. Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman has full-time political staff in 14 states, and North Carolina Sen. John Edwards has them in 11.

A less measurable -- but possibly potent -- force is Dean’s network of volunteers, many of whom are connected through his Web site. About 142,000 participate in meetings held in local communities on the first Tuesday of each month to plan how to support his candidacy.

Zephyr Teachout, Dean’s director of Internet organizing, is in the midst of a 58-day tour through 30 states to teach supporters how to use the Internet to organize. And on Thursday, Trippi and other senior advisors embarked on a four-day, 13-city tour to meet with supporters about the campaign’s national strategy and teach people how to use such political tools as phone banking and canvassing.

Still, Dean’s strategists insist that the candidate also remains focused on the first contests in Iowa and New Hampshire, keenly aware that competitors will try to slow him down there.

Said Trippi, “The last thing this campaign is going to do is make the mistake of underestimating any of them.”