GOP May Get Push to Center

With his triumph in the recall race, Arnold Schwarzenegger restored the California Republican Party to power 11 months after its worst electoral defeat in 120 years.

Now, as standard-bearer of a suddenly revitalized GOP, the moderate governor-elect could choose to draw on his vast reservoir of political capital to broaden his party’s appeal beyond its conservative base, strategists say.

Most immediately, he has an opportunity to influence the party’s battle to unseat U.S. Sen. Barbara Boxer in November 2004. More important for his own political future, Schwarzenegger has a chance to reshape the Legislature’s Republican minority, now dominated by conservatives, and perhaps expand it.

The depth of Schwarzenegger’s interest in remaking the state party in his own ideological image remains to be seen. With less than five weeks to prepare his takeover of a state that’s a fiscal shambles, he has focused initially on building his administration, putting off decisions on how to wield his extraordinary political clout.

“All the attention is on forming a government right now,” Schwarzenegger spokesman Rob Stutzman said.

On Sunday, another aide said it was uncertain if Schwarzenegger would join President Bush on Wednesday at fund-raisers in Fresno and Riverside for the president’s reelection campaign, but the two are likely to meet before Bush leaves Thursday for Japan.

With or without Schwarzenegger’s help, the Bush campaign is sure to be richly endowed, but for California Republicans the incoming governor’s power to raise huge sums of money marks a major turnaround.

Since Republican Gov. Pete Wilson left office nearly five years ago, the California GOP has struggled to match the Democrats’ robust collection of campaign money. Democrats control both houses of the Legislature, both U.S. Senate seats and a majority of the state’s congressional delegation. In November, Democrats won every statewide office on the ballot for the first time since 1882.

Now that Schwarzenegger has ended the GOP’s losing streak, many Republicans hope his victory will attract more money to the party and make it more competitive, starting with next year’s campaign against Boxer.

“It makes a huge difference, and it’s going to make it much easier to win the Senate race,” said former Secretary of State Bill Jones, a potential candidate for Boxer’s seat.

Before the recall of Democratic Gov. Gray Davis, Jones said, Republican donors had been “very downcast,” undermining the party’s attempted comeback.

“There’s this myth that Republicans can’t win here,” said Bush campaign advisor Mindy Tucker, a counselor to the state party. “That myth was disproved the other night” by Schwarzenegger’s triumph.

But that ignores the unique circumstances of Schwarzenegger’s victory. The world-famous movie star was able to leap over the fund-raising difficulties and unfamiliarity that bedevil most candidates in big races. He was running against a governor who had come to personify voters’ anger at status quo politics.

In a quick recall race that bypassed party nominations, Schwarzenegger was able to capture the governorship with no initial vetting in a Republican primary, often a high hurdle for moderates. Though his profile as a fiscal conservative is popular among Republicans, his liberal stands on abortion, gun control and gay rights would have dampened his appeal in a primary.

There is an additional barrier to any effort to influence the Senate or upcoming legislative races: The deadlines for candidates to file for those races occur within weeks, just as Schwarzenegger is putting together his budget.

For years, Republicans have tended to nominate top-of-the-ticket candidates well to the right of most Californians, most recently businessman Bill Simon Jr. for governor in 2002 and then-Atty. Gen. Dan Lungren in 1998. Their conservative stands on social issues made prime targets for Democratic attacks. In the recall, however, most conservatives bypassed one of their own on the ballot -- state Sen. Tom McClintock of Thousand Oaks -- and went with Schwarzenegger, the candidate more likely to win.

“This party for several election cycles has been bent on self-destruction,” said Mark Chapin Johnson of Tustin, a major Republican donor who backs moderates. “Sanity is starting to prevail.”

But Boxer campaign strategist Roy Behr said Republicans were deluding themselves to think that Schwarzenegger’s victory would make the party any more likely to nominate a moderate for the Senate race.

“Republican donors are going to be interested in supporting candidates who can win, and the Republican primary process is not going to produce a candidate who can win,” Behr said. “It’s going to produce a far-right candidate, just as it has consistently for the last 20 years.”

At any rate, given the fragile coalition of moderates and conservatives that elected Schwarzenegger, advisors and outside strategists said he is unlikely to back candidates in Republican primaries, whether for U.S. Senate or the state Legislature.

“He’s not going to cut off the right wing of the Republican Party,” said GOP consultant Allan Hoffenblum. “He’s going to broaden its base.”

In the early 1990s, then-Gov. Pete Wilson irked conservatives by supporting fellow moderates in GOP primaries, a practice that one former aide described as “more trouble than it was worth.” Wilson’s goal was pragmatic: In the moderate, often upscale coastal districts where Republicans can compete with Democrats, conservative nominees are typically doomed in the general election.

Now, however, the California political map offers fewer competitive districts where Republicans might pick up new seats. Lawmakers adjusted the map after the 2000 census in a collaborative way that protected incumbents of each party but ensured a lopsided balance of power: Democrats now outnumber Republicans in the Assembly 48 to 32, and in the Senate 25 to 15.

By leaving as few as half a dozen seats up for grabs, lawmakers intensified the polarization of the Legislature. Though liberal Democrats control its overall direction, conservative Republicans have been adamant in exercising their power to block tax hikes, which require a two-thirds vote. In essence, lawmakers are locked in a perpetual state of ideological combat.

Schwarzenegger, like Davis, is sure to be caught in the middle -- with the fate of his political agenda at stake. With the dearth of competitive districts hindering wholesale GOP advances, the main tool at his disposal is the same one that drove his candidacy: star power. He can deploy it in raising money for the party and in campaigning.

During his campaign, Schwarzenegger offered a more radical plan to reshape the Legislature. Three retired judges chosen by lottery would redraw the legislative map “for the benefit of the voters, not politicians.” Proposals to overhaul the map have languished in the Legislature but could be revived after Schwarzenegger takes power.

“There is bipartisan feeling in Sacramento that these districts are terrible,” said Tony Quinn, an expert on reapportionment.

Anti-tax advocate Ted Costa, who led the drive to get the Davis recall before voters, said he will submit papers this week to start circulating a petition for a ballot measure that would lead to a new map favoring moderates in both parties.

“All these people who did the bipartisan gerrymander, shame on them all,” Costa said.

Schwarzenegger has not taken a position on Costa’s measure.

Another key test of his interest in electing moderates to the Legislature will come in the state Senate reelection race of McClintock, the Republican who won more than 1 million votes in the recall race after Schwarzenegger forces failed to persuade him to step aside. McClintock, now the best-known leader of the state party’s large conservative faction, could face a primary challenge from moderate Beth Rogers.

Some Republicans have wondered whether Schwarzenegger’s appointment of Rogers to his transition team signaled he would back her in the March primary against McClintock. Former state Republican Chairman Shawn Steel, an ally of the conservatives, said he expects Schwarzenegger to steer clear of the conflict.

“It would really threaten Arnold’s ability to govern effectively with a united, strong right-moderate coalition,” Steel said. “I expect his people will whisper to Beth Rogers to stay out of the race.”

Schwarzenegger advisors said the Rogers appointment was not meant as a signal to McClintock. One aide said the governor-elect “is smart and knows grudges don’t move the ball forward.”