NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST

By BEN BOLCH

April 2, 2004 12 AM PT

1. ATLANTA BRAVES

Key additions: P Antonio Alfonseca, Armando Almanza, Juan Cruz, Chris Reitsma and John Thomson, RF J.D. Drew.

Key losses: P Greg Maddux and Shane Reynolds, OF Gary Sheffield, C Javy Lopez, 3B Vinny Castilla, 1B Robert Fick.

Strengths: The addition of Drew allows the Braves to maintain perhaps the best offensive outfield in the game; Chipper Jones, Andruw Jones and Drew are all capable of delivering 30-homer, 100-RBI seasons. Russ Ortiz and Mike Hampton comprise a formidable one-two punch in the rotation. First baseman Adam LaRoche could make a push for rookie of the year.

Weaknesses: Paul Byrd’s elbow injury might force the Braves to fill the fifth starter’s spot by committee until he returns in June. Three regulars -- LaRoche, Mark DeRosa and Johnny Estrada -- will be everyday players for the first time. There’s not much to brag about in the bullpen except closer John Smoltz.

Outlook: The Braves haven’t looked this vulnerable since the days of Gerald Perry, Andres Thomas and Zane Smith. Whether they can extend an unprecedented 12-year reign as division champions will hinge on the health of Drew and the stability of a reformulated rotation.

At Dodger Stadium: Aug. 19-22.

PROJECTED LINEUP

SS Rafael Furcal

2B Marcus Giles

LF Chipper Jones

RF J.D. Drew

CF Andruw Jones

3B Mark DeRosa

C Johnny Estrada

1B Adam LaRoche

STARTING PITCHERS

Russ Ortiz

Mike Hampton

John Thomson

Horacio Ramirez

Jaret Wright

BULLPEN

John Smoltz

Chris Reitsma

Antonio Alfonseca

Juan Cruz

Kevin Gryboski

C.J. Nitkowski

2. FLORIDA MARLINS

Key additions: 1B Hee Seop Choi and Wil Cordero, P Armando Benitez, Michael Neu and Darren Oliver.

Key losses: C Ivan Rodriguez, 1B Derrek Lee, P Braden Looper, Mark Redman and Ugueth Urbina, RF Juan Encarnacion

Strengths: Josh Beckett, the World Series MVP, and Brad Penny lead a fearsome rotation that will get a boost when A.J. Burnett returns from elbow surgery in May. Speedy Juan Pierre will jump-start the offense, with right fielder Miguel Cabrera providing power and consistency at the plate. A healthy Mike Lowell and Luis Castillo are the core of a solid infield.

Weaknesses: A deep and dependable bullpen was thinned by the losses of Looper and Urbina. The enigmatic Benitez takes over as closer. Choi must prove he has recovered from the concussion that derailed his 2003 season.

Outlook: The Marlins will go as far as their starting pitching takes them. That could be a long way, considering the experience they gained in hard-fought playoff victories over the Cubs and Yankees. Without the burden of the 16-22 record he inherited when he took over as manager in May, Jack McKeon could guide the Marlins to their first division title.

At Dodger Stadium: Aug. 16-18.

PROJECTED LINEUP

CF Juan Pierre

2B Luis Castillo

RF Miguel Cabrera

3B Mike Lowell

LF Jeff Conine

1B Hee Seop Choi

C Ramon Castro

SS Alex Gonzalez

STARTING PITCHERS

Josh Beckett

Brad Penny

Dontrelle Willis

Carl Pavano

Darren Oliver

BULLPEN

Armando Benitez

Chad Fox

Michael Tejera

Nate Bump

Tommy Phelps

Blaine Neal

3. PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES

Key additions: P Billy Wagner, Roberto Hernandez, Eric Milton and Tim Worrell.

Key losses: P Jose Mesa, Terry Adams, Brandon Duckworth, Carlos Silva, Valerio De Los Santos, Turk Wendell and Mike Williams.

Strengths: A starting rotation that includes four former All-Stars -- Kevin Millwood, Randy Wolf, Vicente Padilla and Milton -- is the deepest in the division. Newcomers Wagner and Worrell fortify a bullpen that recorded only 33 saves last season. Jim Thome and Pat Burrell, if he can regain his stroke, form the heart of an imposing batting order.

Weaknesses: Third baseman David Bell continues to be plagued by injuries, including a shoulder problem that hampered his play this spring. If Bell is unable to go, second baseman Placido Polanco could move to third or the Phillies could turn to Tomas Perez or Angel castoff Shawn Wooten.

Outlook: On paper, the Phillies appear ready to contend for their first playoff appearance since 1993. But Manager Larry Bowa always seems to get the least out of his teams, especially when the playoff races heat up after the All-Star break.

At Dodger Stadium: Aug. 6-8.

PROJECTED LINEUP

CF Marlon Byrd

2B Placido Polanco

1B Jim Thome

LF Pat Burrell

RF Bobby Abreu

C Mike Lieberthal

SS Jimmy Rollins

3B David Bell

STARTING PITCHERS

Kevin Millwood

Randy Wolf

Vicente Padilla

Eric Milton

Brett Myers

BULLPEN

Billy Wagner

Tim Worrell

Rheal Cormier

Roberto Hernandez

Amaury Telemaco

David Coggin

4. NEW YORK METS

Key additions: SS Kaz Matsui, CF Mike Cameron, P Braden Looper, Scott Erickson and James Baldwin, OF Karim Garcia and Shane Spencer.

Key losses: 1B Tony Clark, OF Timo Perez, P Jaime Cerda.

Strengths: Cameron should be symbolic of General Manager Jim Duquette’s emphasis on speed and defense. Prize acquisition Matsui should give the Mets a nifty double-play combination if Jose Reyes, who switched to second base to accommodate his new teammate, can shake off persistent hamstring injuries.

Weaknesses: The Mike Piazza-Jason Phillips platoon at first base, intended to keep Piazza’s bat in the lineup on days he’s not catching, might not last if Piazza can’t regain the stroke that he lost toward the end of last season. The pitching staff is showing signs of age: Tom Glavine and Al Leiter are 38, and John Franco is 43.

Outlook: The Mets are markedly improved but could be saddled with another last-place finish unless Glavine rebounds from his dreadful first season in New York and Piazza regains his productivity. It will not bode well for the Mets if journeyman Steve Trachsel continues to be their most consistent starter.

At Dodger Stadium: April 27-29.

PROJECTED LINEUP

SS Kaz Matsui

2B Jose Reyes

C Mike Piazza

LF Cliff Floyd

CF Mike Cameron

1B Jason Phillips

3B Ty Wigginton

RF Karim Garcia

STARTING PITCHERS

Tom Glavine

Al Leiter

Steve Trachsel

Jae Weong Seo

Scott Erickson

BULLPEN

Braden Looper

David Weathers

John Franco

Mike Stanton

Ricky Bottalico

Grant Roberts

5. MONTREAL EXPOS

Key additions: OF Carl Everett and Juan Rivera, 1B Nick Johnson, 3B Tony Batista.

Key losses: OF Vladimir Guerrero, P Javier Vazquez and Scott Stewart, 1B Wil Cordero, C Michael Barrett.

Strengths: Everett and Batista should compensate for much of the power drop-off with the departure of Guerrero. Catcher Brian Schneider threw out a league-best 53.3% of would-be base stealers last season.

Weaknesses: Starter Tony Armas Jr., attempting to return from shoulder surgery, is already on the disabled list after straining a muscle on his right side. Injury-plagued Zach Day also is trying to regain top form after missing considerable time in 2003. Outfielder Brad Wilkerson ranked third in the major leagues with 155 strikeouts and must trim that number considerably.

Outlook: The Expos could continue to prove pesky for their division rivals if they get off to a fast start and capitalize on their 22 “home” games in Puerto Rico, all before the All-Star break. The lineup is capable of keeping the Expos in games if they can find more than the one dependable starter they have in Livan Hernandez.

At Dodger Stadium: April 30-May 2.

PROJECTED LINEUP

CF Peter Bergeron

2B Jose Vidro

1B Nick Johnson

RF Carl Everett

SS Orlando Cabrera

LF Brad Wilkerson

3B Tony Batista

C Brian Schneider

STARTING PITCHERS

Livan Hernandez