On a Winter Night in Iowa, Democracy Gets Personal

WAVERLY, Iowa —  When voters gather here in a week to declare their choices for the Democratic presidential nomination, the final tumult of a long campaign will be roaring in their ears.

“Rush to war ... stop Bush ... universal health care ... stop Bush

But next Monday’s critical Iowa caucuses may be won by a much softer sound -- neighbors talking with neighbors. If Ward 4 in the community of Waverly is any indication (and it usually is, having been a bellwether of Iowa politics for many years), then an extremely close contest will come down to 1,001 incalculable variables.

Instead of their usual morning kaffeeklatsch, will an elderly group of neighbors in Ward 4 follow a friend and caucus for Rep. Dick Gephardt? Can a Lutheran minister deliver votes for Sen. John F. Kerry, even though she abhors the hard sell? And how about that young kid just out of UC Berkeley -- did those months trudging to every Democratic house in this northeastern Iowa community pay off for Sen. John Edwards?

The lot of them must reckon with Howard Dean, the former Vermont governor, powered in Waverly not only by his crowd-pleasing attacks on President Bush but also by the support of a local activist who heads one of Iowa’s most respected Democratic families.

Iowans need little persuading about the importance of their beloved caucuses, which have led off the nation’s presidential primary season since the 1970s. Folks in Waverly got a reminder of the power of every vote four years ago.

In those Democratic caucuses, former Sen. Bill Bradley of New Jersey was poised to take Ward 4 by a vote or two, until one of his supporters, a young man, left before the final ballot. Then a woman -- who announced, “I just like his face” -- defected to Vice President Al Gore. Suddenly, it was a dead heat and the caucus chair decided there was only one way to break the tie -- with a coin flip. That’s how Ward 4 awarded four delegates to Gore and three to Bradley. Activists here say the finish in 2004 remains nearly as uncertain.

They dearly want to find a candidate who can beat Bush in November. But enough remain undecided that the only thing that seems likely is that some of the delegates chosen next Monday night will be designated “uncommitted.”

Delegates selected in Ward 4 and more than 1,900 other precincts move on to county conventions, the first step in a complicated process for choosing delegates for the Democratic National Convention.

Founded by German immigrant farmers more than 150 years ago, Waverly is known to the outside world, if at all, for its “living” holiday displays. Costumed townspeople strike poses in store windows at Christmastime. The A&E; cable channel recently said that the holiday tableau and other merriment qualified Waverly as one of America’s “Ultimate Holiday Towns.”

The community of less than 9,000, split east-west by the Cedar River, has weathered the recession better than many other towns in Iowa because of its stable employers -- a small liberal arts college, a life insurance company, an industrial crane manufacturer and a plant that makes Nestle products.

Like voters in the rest of Iowa, the 1,607 voters in Ward 4 are increasingly noncommittal about the two major parties; 44% are independents, 35% are Republicans and 21% are Democrats.

That’s made the precinct amenable to candidates of both parties and a predictor of the winner in Iowa for many years -- picking George H.W. Bush for president in 1988, Bill Clinton in both 1992 and 1996 and, narrowly, Gore in 2000.

Such flexibility bespeaks a populace that takes a long look at political candidates, often in person.

People want to feel solid about their candidates, before they plunge into a cold winter night to caucus; not shrouded in a curtained polling booth but, instead, standing in front of their neighbors on behalf of the man, or woman, they think should be the next president.

The ritual will be renewed next Monday in a classroom at Waverly-Shell Rock High School. Supporters of each candidate will stake out their corner of the room. Quickly, they’ll flush out the uncommitted and try to pry away backers for any candidates -- Ohio Rep. Dennis J. Kucinich is frequently mentioned -- who might not have enough followers.

A candidate must maintain support of at least 15% of those in the room to remain in contention. Otherwise, their supporters can join another candidate or an uncommitted group.

Only 70 voters appeared in 2000 for the Ward 4 caucus, meaning one activist could hold considerable sway by bringing along a friend or two to back the same candidate. Caucus-goers must sometimes remain until quite late, so their votes can be counted in the final tabulation.

Come caucus night, Karen Thalacker, the volunteer Gephardt captain for all of Bremer County, could deliver carloads of supporters for the Missouri congressman. She’s an energetic lawyer and mother who teaches at Waverly’s Wartburg College and serves on the boards of the hospital and women’s shelter.

She wasn’t expecting much when she saw Gephardt for the first time in May. “But I left that first time seeing him thinking, ‘Wow!’ ... He really seems to understand the issues that are facing everyday Americans.”

Now, she’s rallying not only Democrats but also Republicans and independents -- who can switch their affiliation the night of the caucuses under same-day registration rules -- to come out for Gephardt.

One of those she can count on is Ann Dirksen, a rehabilitation counselor who hopes to lure several of her parents’ old bridge friends out for the evening.

“I’m thinking if I can get Betty across the street, then surely her husband, Russ, will come along because she is the powerhouse in the family,” Dirksen said. “And then Marilyn, she was recently widowed. She might be up for the experience. And then right next door are the Kings. He’s a college professor, and I don’t think they are on anybody else’s radar.”

Dirksen, whose husband can’t attend because he works nights making John Deere parts, said the key to her caucus strategy is persistence and a gentle touch. “We can make it like a little neighborhood outing,” she said. “Instead of Hardee’s for breakfast, we’ll all go to caucus together.”

For much of last year, Dean’s staff dwarfed those of the three other major candidates competing in Iowa: Gephardt, Kerry and Edwards. Locals remember that Dean’s first Bremer County coordinator, Tim Fink, was ubiquitous last summer, seemingly working fairs, parades and other events when the other campaigns were nowhere in sight.

“It was easier to grab people’s attention,” recalled Fink, who has moved on to coordinate other counties. “We could explain [Dean] had an incredible record of success, but also really hammer the war issue

Late last fall, Dean got a local boost with the endorsement of Art Hessburg, who will coordinate the Ward 4 caucus. His daughter, Jean, is the executive director of the state Democratic Party. Hessburg believes Dean has been impervious to the barbs about his temper and other purported shortcomings. “The negative campaigning, I don’t think it’s doing ... a lot,” he said. “In fact, I predict it’s had some backfire effect and will help Dean.”

With just two years in town, the Rev. Nancy Larson does not have Hessburg’s political standing. But the Lutheran pastor, 50, is quietly passing the word to colleagues and her housemate that Kerry is the candidate with the experience to be president.

Lake Lambert, an ethics professor at Wartburg College, concurs. He’s telling his colleagues that the Massachusetts senator’s two battlefield tours in Vietnam and time on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee offer the best hope that the Democrats will “have some solid credibility on the issues of security, defense and foreign policy ... [since] the campaign with Bush is largely going to be defined by those issues.”

Exhausted staff members for all four leading candidates are pushing toward the finish line after months of seven-day weeks and 14-hour days.

And any edge can help.

Edwards may have gained a boost in Waverly when one of his key supporters -- Donna Ellison, Bremer County’s recorder-registrar -- had to undergo back surgery in late December.

Laid up at home in recovery, Ellison worked the phone for days on behalf of Edwards, buttonholing voters she has come to know over a decade in elective office.

“Donna’s bad back could end up being our gain,” said Brian Brokaw, a recent UC Berkeley graduate and Edwards staffer in three Iowa counties.

Brokaw still must turn vague supporters into caucus-goers. The Sacramento native, who walked his first precinct at age 7, trudged to more than 1,000 Democratic households in Waverly during the fall and winter. Late last month, he walked through snow to hang a flier on the final home.

The 22-year-old said it will all be worth it -- a constantly runny nose, frozen feet, a missed family vacation in Maui -- if the work delivers a few more votes for the senator from North Carolina.

“Right now,” he said, “you realize that these are some of the most important people in the country.”