His 84 Might Not Equal 56, but Gagne’s No Ordinary Joe

The Dodgers approach the All-Star break leading the National League West despite ranking 12th among the circuit’s 16 teams in runs and seventh in earned-run average.

What this underscores again is the mediocrity of the division and the superiority of the jungle cat who closes games for the Dodgers.

With Eric Gagne as centerpiece of a bullpen that has converted 23 of 27 save opportunities, it is difficult to dispute his effect on the division race.

Coming up to the break, consider that Matt Herges and the San Francisco Giant bullpen had blown 16 of 39 save opportunities, that Trevor Hoffman, Rod Beck and the San Diego Padre bullpen had blown 12 of 36, that Shawn Chacon and the Colorado Rockies bullpen had blown 12 of 31 and the Arizona Diamondbacks and a cast of thousands had blown 11 of 35.

It is difficult to find a new context by which to measure Gagne’s accomplishments, but Steve Hirdt, the analyst at the Elias Sports Bureau, baseball’s official stats house, tried.

Asked if he agreed with the widespread assessment that Gagne’s record of 84 consecutive saves was comparable to Joe DiMaggio’s record 56-game hitting streak, Hirdt said it was too early to put them in the same category.

“The reason that the DiMaggio streak stands above it, in my opinion,” he said, “is that every player since 1876 has been eligible to hit in 56 straight games. There have been thousands of players who could have done it.

“There haven’t been thousands of players who were eligible to do what Gagne has done. In fact, there’s been a relatively small amount, maybe dozens, particularly since Tony La Russa and Dennis Eckersley redefined what the closer does when they were at Oakland, which is that he will only pitch in a save situation and only pitch the ninth inning.

“So, the DiMaggio record has stood that test of time, whereas Gagne’s hasn’t.”

However, Hirdt added, there is no demeaning the Gagne record.

“A good closer will convert 80 to 85% of his save chances, so as a means of comparison you look for what else in sport is 80 to 85%,” he said.

“Well, maybe it’s a good foul shooter in basketball. Even then, mathematically, the chance that a good foul shooter will make five in a row is less than 50%. It’s about 44%, so that puts a statistical framework of sorts around what Gagne did. He was 100% over a span of 84 games, but compared to our foul shooter, it was even more impressive than that. In foul shooting, it’s all on you. There’s no concern about a teammate making an error, an umpire making a bad call, the wind blowing out.

“The NBA record for converting consecutive foul shots is 97. Gagne is right there.”

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Barry Bonds broke Rickey Henderson’s record for career walks last Sunday, but the two are apples and oranges. Pitchers tried their best to keep Henderson off base because of his base-stealing ability. They are happy to put Bonds on rather than risk yielding a home run. Bonds had 547 intentional walks entering the weekend compared to 61 for Henderson.

It’s one record that definitely demands an asterisk, or as Henderson said while playing with the independent Newark Bears in an attempt to land another major league shot at 45: “I’m proud of Barry

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Although baseball officials remain concerned that the BALCO shoe will drop on some of the game’s biggest stars once the spotlight is off the Olympics, the steroid cloud didn’t stop fans from sending Bonds, Gary Sheffield and Jason Giambi -- each of whom testified during the grand jury investigation into the Bay Area supplements lab -- to the All-Star game.

Bonds, the one player most consistently shadowed by steroid rumors, led NL outfield voting among fans and players and was second overall in each poll to Scott Rolen, the St. Louis Cardinal third baseman.

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Seldom has the competition for major awards been ... well, more competitive. At the break, here’s some choices:

Most Valuable Player: Vladimir Guerrero, narrowly over Ivan Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez and Michael Young, in the AL; and Rolen narrowly over Bonds, Jim Thome and Sean Casey in the NL.

Cy Young: Mark Mulder narrowly over Curt Schilling and Pedro Martinez in the AL; Roger Clemens by a fraction over Johnson, Jason Schmidt and Ben Sheets in an NL dogfight that finds Clemens going for his seventh Cy Young and Johnson his sixth.

Managers: Buck Showalter of Texas in the AL; La Russa of St. Louis in the NL.

Rookies: Shortstops Bobby Crosby of Oakland in the AL and Khalil Greene of San Diego in the NL.