For Flynn, Tough Fall Test Awaits

Facing his first real election challenge in more than two decades, veteran Ventura County Supervisor John Flynn began gearing up Wednesday for a November runoff against popular Oxnard Mayor Manuel Lopez -- a race expected to pit the incumbent’s record of service against a growing push for leadership change in the mostly Latino district.

Flynn, 71, was the top vote-getter in Tuesday’s 5th District primary, collecting 46% compared with 24% for Lopez, 76.

Oxnard Councilman John Zaragoza, who had strong support from law enforcement, finished with 23% of the vote, and community leader Arlene Fraser captured 6%.

But Lopez pointed out that together he and the other challengers received more votes than Flynn in the four-way race and said he expected a significant slice of that “anti-incumbent” vote to flow to him this fall.

“I knew I had a big mountain to climb just to get into the primary but now it’s a completely new contest,” Lopez said. “I would think people who supported [Zaragoza and Fraser] would be anti-incumbent, so I think there’s a very good possibility we could pick up a good share of those votes.”

Flynn is unconvinced. Seeking a record-tying eighth supervisorial term, the hands-on politician was studying precinct returns from Tuesday’s balloting to identify areas where he needs to shore up support in the Oxnard-based district.

Flynn, citing his three challengers, said he was not surprised to be forced into a runoff for the first time since 1980. And while he has butted heads in recent years with prominent Oxnard leaders -- some eager to elect the first Latino to the Board of Supervisors in nearly 100 years -- he said he didn’t believe his popularity with most constituents had waned.

“I think I made a super showing when you consider I was running against the mayor and a City Council person, that’s what stands out,” Flynn said. “The other thing that stands out is the terrible defeat suffered by the sheriff and the deputy sheriff’s association. I’m sure the sheriff has got black-and-blue marks all over him this morning.”

Indeed, none of the incumbents in Tuesday’s primary was supported by the county’s law enforcement establishment. Incumbents in three supervisorial races drew fire for denying a hefty pension boost for deputies and capping budget increases for public safety departments.

Still, even without that backing, the incumbents fared well on election day.

Flynn took the most votes in the 5th District despite a strong push by the Ventura County Deputy Sheriffs’ Assn. for Zaragoza. In the Ventura-based 1st District, Supervisor Steve Bennett breezed to reelection even though the deputy sheriffs’ union withheld its endorsement, citing Bennett’s positions on public safety funding.

And in perhaps the sharpest rebuke of Ventura County’s powerful law enforcement lobby, Supervisor Kathy Long was swept back into office despite strong support by the deputy sheriffs’ association and Sheriff Bob Brooks’ endorsement of her challenger, Camarillo City Councilman Mike Morgan.

In fact, Morgan was recruited by the sheriff to challenge Long, and the deputies’ union spent more than $26,000 to try to get him elected. Instead, Long took 60% of the vote in defeating Morgan for the third time in as many tries. It was Long’s largest margin of victory and an overwhelming win, considering she beat him by only a little more than 1,000 votes four years ago.

“To me [Tuesday’s vote] is a strong message to law enforcement that the first responsibility of any manager is fiscal responsibility,” said Long, who before Tuesday had said the election would decide who sets the county’s budget policy. “I believe the voters felt that putting limits on the growth [of law enforcement budgets] was appropriate and the right position to take.”

Brooks, however, doesn’t see it that way. He said the incumbents succeeded in reshaping concerns he and the union raised about public safety funding into a campaign centered on the deputies’ desire for improved pension benefits.

“I think they got that message across and that’s what carried the day,” said Brooks, who with Dist. Atty. Greg Totten is suing the supervisors over budget restrictions they say are illegal and put residents at risk. “I think if the issue was clear to the public that this is about our ability to maintain adequate levels of law enforcement in this county, they would clearly speak out because they support that.”

The law enforcement lobby has tried before to express its displeasure about public safety funding through the electoral process.

Two years ago, Supervisor Judy Mikels fended off a law enforcement-backed challenger in her quest for a third term in the Simi Valley-based 4th District.

Sheriff’s deputies withdrew their support for Mikels in that race after she refused to approve a costly retirement benefits upgrade sought in labor negotiations. The union backed Moorpark fraud investigator John Lane with money and manpower, sending throngs of deputies to walk precincts on his behalf. Mikels squeaked by in the primary with 51% of the vote.

But Cal Lutheran University political science professor Herb Gooch said he would not read too much into law enforcement’s failure so far to push its political agenda. He said there would not have even been a challenger in the 3rd District race had the law enforcement lobby not flexed its muscle.

“They’ve showed their ability to be a player, even if they didn’t win this time,” Gooch said of the deputies. “They will definitely be a factor to watch.”

Gooch said that in the 5th District he believed internal politics and a variety of factors had more to do with forcing a runoff than the rift over public safety funding. He noted that Flynn had come under fire for a series of high-profile clashes he has had with Oxnard community leaders, including a bitter feud with Irma Lopez, the wife of Manuel Lopez.

Gooch said also at play was a rising sentiment that the time had come for a Latino to represent a district where Latinos constitute the majority. Gooch said it was clear that Flynn understood well the changing face of the Oxnard-based district, evidenced by his efforts in recent years to learn Spanish to communicate with constituents.

But whether Flynn can be beat is another question. Gooch said it would be tough to do. But others, including Lopez and Zaragoza, said they believed the time could be right.

With thousands of absentee and provisional ballots remaining to be counted in the 5th District contest, Zaragoza said Wednesday he was holding onto a slim hope he could overtake Lopez and earn the spot in the runoff. Consequently, he said he had not even thought about whether he would endorse either candidate. But if he does endorse someone, he said, that support could make all of the difference.

“The numbers are there,” Zaragoza said. “If you add Manny’s numbers and my numbers, I think it shows that [Flynn] can be beat.”