SCOUTING REPORT

STARTERS

* Tim Duncan has joined Shaquille O’Neal as the player for whom one could make an MVP case every year, given his skills and all of the services he provides the Spurs. In his first season away from David Robinson and beside free-agent signee Rasho Nesterovic, Duncan averaged 22.3 points and 12.4 rebounds in 69 games. In three games against the Lakers, he averaged 19.7 points and shot 47.7%. At times, the Lakers had larger issues with Tony Parker, who also averaged 19.7 points against them, five points more than his average. At about midseason, the Spurs made Sacramento King expatriate Hedo Turkoglu a starter, allowing them to bring Manu Ginobili off the bench. Bruce Bowen is a three-point shooter (40% against the Memphis Grizzlies) and free-throw misser (25%), still. O’Neal and Kobe Bryant were first-team All-NBA, as was Duncan. Karl Malone just had his best week as a Laker, Gary Payton could have been better than Phil Jackson has allowed, and Devean George has been a short-term improvement over the injured Rick Fox. EDGE: LAKERS

BENCH

* Spur Coach Gregg Popovich has tightened his rotation to seven, with Ginobili and Robert Horry the only players getting big minutes off the bench. Ginobili started three of four games in the regular season against the Lakers and averaged 17.8 points. He was perhaps the Spurs’ best player in April, but struggled in the Spurs’ first-round sweep of the Grizzlies. Horry averaged 15.9 minutes in his first season in San Antonio, about half of last year’s workload, when injuries and need pushed him close to 30 minutes a game with the Lakers. Guard Jason Hart did not play much against the Grizzlies, but he made some shots. Kevin Willis and Malik Rose will get some minutes against O’Neal, particularly if Nesterovic falls into foul trouble. From the shadow of Payton’s arrival, Derek Fisher’s role has increased gradually, and he is capable of making three-pointers in bunches, as is Kareem Rush. The Lakers are thin in the frontcourt, but Slava Medvedenko’s Achilles’ tendon has improved and he should be more active than he was in the Houston series. Luke Walton is a developing playmaker and shooter. EDGE: SPURS

OFFENSE

* Even with two new starters and little contribution from their small forward, the Lakers ranked third in scoring and fourth in field-goal percentage during the regular season. They accomplished this despite horrendous three-point shooting by the team and worse free-throw shooting by O’Neal. And, while O’Neal’s free throws only got worse in the first round, Laker jump shooters made 39.6% of their three-pointers in the first four games against the Rockets before falling off in the fifth. The Lakers also were among the league leaders in assists and fewest turnovers. By the playoffs, and trying to get Malone and Payton involved, they went often to the pick-and-roll. The only team worse at shooting free throws than the Lakers were the Spurs, but that’s not the sole reason they ranked 19th in the league in scoring. They are a defensive team that relies on winning games at their tempo, which means lots of Duncan, sprinkled with Duncan and Parker on the pick and roll. EDGE: LAKERS

DEFENSE

* Among those who are strong enough and athletic enough to push Bryant by themselves, Bowen ranks with Ron Artest. It doesn’t guarantee success -- Bryant averaged 32.3 points against the Spurs in last year’s Western Conference semifinals and 25.8 points in four games against the Spurs this season. Among the strategies used to drag Bryant out of the triangle offense -- and kill the Laker momentum -- is to challenge him physically. Utah’s Raja Bell did it with some success. Overall, the Spurs try to force opposing offenses out of the middle and to the baseline and sidelines. Bowen is first team all-defense. Duncan is second team. Parker and Ginobili have improved. It doesn’t hurt that the Spurs have a defensive reputation, which occasionally gets them the benefit of the doubt with officials. Bryant is first-team all-defense, deserved when he stays with his man, not so much when he begins to hunt steals and blocks, leaving teammates vulnerable. When he’s in the mood, O’Neal can still be one of the game’s best shot-blockers. EDGE: SPURS

COACHING

* Well, they haven’t imploded yet, and it’s May, so maybe they won’t. The Laker season was their strangest and most compelling ever, and then they won a Pacific Division title and eliminated the Houston Rockets in five games. While it was not a seamless season for Phil Jackson either -- he says he might have mishandled the Bryant situation and he might have lost Payton -- perhaps only Jackson could have kept their attention from October to today. Popovich has earned a reputation as a coach players will play for, a rarity in the NBA. Bottom line, Jackson has nine championships, Popovich has two. EDGE: LAKERS

KEY TO THE SERIES

* Drearily enough, the high screen-and-roll. The Spurs run it to exhaustion, the Lakers haven’t committed to defending it. If it continues, it will mean open jump shots and free paths to the rim for the Spurs and a short series. The Lakers got Payton and Malone in part because they are strong, active defenders, but O’Neal will be the critical element. When the Rockets scored off the screen-and-roll, it was because O’Neal was caught in the middle, in a position to defend neither the outside jump shot nor the drive to the basket.

* PREDICTION: SPURS IN 7

-- Tim Brown