One Small Laker Letdown May Mean a Big One

Flash back to April 6, when the Lakers played the Portland Trail Blazers at Staples Center. With victories in 11 of their previous 12 games, the Lakers were expected to steamroller the Trail Blazers, but instead they lost by 11.

That defeat now haunts the Lakers, because if they had won, they would have had home-court advantage against San Antonio. The Lakers would have finished 57-25 and held home-court edge over San Antonio based on victories in three of four regular-season games.

So thanks to Ruben Patterson and the Trail Blazers, the Lakers will have to win at least once at the SBC Center in a best-of-seven series that has been sliced down to a best-of-three sprint to the finish after four home-team victories.

Spurs’ move -- San Antonio must control the tempo of tonight’s Game 5 from the opening tip. Coach Gregg Popovich tried to do that in Game 4 by having point guard Tony Parker pressure the Lakers’ Gary Payton the length of the court, but the Spurs could not keep the ball out of the hands of Kobe Bryant, who finished with 42 points and five assists.

Bruce Bowen must avoid foul trouble and remember that scoring off the dribble has never been his strong point. The Spurs need Bowen in the game because Bryant proved Tuesday that Manu Ginobili cannot defend him. Bowen stays close enough to Bryant and grabs just enough to make it a challenge for the Laker swingman. In the second half of Game 4, Bryant leaped over Ginobili for jump shots and chewed him up on drives to the basket.

The Spurs need to concentrate on stopping Bryant, and the best way to do that is to double- and triple-team him aggressively all over the floor. They can’t afford to have both Shaquille O’Neal and Bryant dominate, and they can take their chances with the Laker center because of his free-throw shooting history. The Spurs can’t get away with one player defending Bryant.

Lakers’ move -- O’Neal was explosive around the basket in the second half of Game 4. He had 14 points and seven rebounds in the third quarter alone. When O’Neal plays like that, everything usually clicks for the Lakers because he makes team defense easy. O’Neal must be careful with his arms when the Spurs attack the basket because he still has a tendency to drop them and create contact. The Lakers need O’Neal to play 40-plus minutes, which means he has to play smart. Karl Malone had his moments Tuesday, but he can still be more forceful. As he did on the road against Houston in Game 4 in the first round, Malone should go quick with his moves, whether taking a shot or driving to the basket. Malone is more effective offensively when he plays in rhythm and doesn’t defer to other players, and he should expect the Spurs to give him more room to work after O’Neal and Bryant’s huge efforts.

In the fourth quarter of Game 4, Coach Phil Jackson turned to a small lineup with Derek Fisher and Payton in the backcourt and Bryant at small forward. This group did a great job of switching on perimeter screens and stepping into the key on drives by Parker and Ginobili.

Something to look for -- The Spurs played tougher than they did in Game 3 but still lost Game 4 when some of their players began to play timidly. If they are going to win the series, the Spurs need starters Rasho Nesterovic, Hedo Turkoglu and Bowen to be more consistent.

Because the Lakers have decided to swarm Tim Duncan, Popovich might be forced to give more playing time to Robert Horry and Devin Brown if his perimeter starters are not making shots. Both players are active and the Spurs need more movement in their halfcourt offense. That’s how they opened up their double-digit lead in the first half of Game 4 and that’s what they need to do tonight to help get Duncan into an offensive groove.