Fire Risk Is High Despite Above-Average Rainfall

Despite slightly more rainfall than normal in downtown Los Angeles this fall, a red-flag fire hazard warning remained in effect Monday in the mountains of Southern California as the relative humidity hovered at dangerously low levels.

“There’s been some rainfall above Pasadena and Altadena, but we’re still dry in places like Santa Clarita and along the coast,” said John R. Todd, an assistant chief in the forestry division of the Los Angeles County Fire Department. “There’s a threat of a little rain later this week, and anything would help, but what we really need is 4 or 5 inches of rain.”

In downtown Los Angeles, total rainfall for the season, which runs from July 1 through June 30, stood at 1.86 inches Monday. The normal total through Nov. 28 is 1.74 inches. Last year, the second-wettest on record, the total was 4.76 inches by Nov. 28.

Last month’s rains have turned the lower slopes of the San Gabriel Mountains emerald green in many areas, but brisk northern winds have kept the relative humidity low, and Todd said the water content of the brush -- a key fuel in hillside fires -- remains low.

The National Weather Service said there is about a 20% chance of light rain Thursday night through Saturday morning, but Bill Patzert, a climatologist with the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in La Canada Flintridge, said there is at least an equal chance that it will fizzle out. “The jet stream has been shifting to the north, and that’s carrying the storm systems with it,” Patzert said. “It’s a preview of coming attractions: a continuing shift to the north that will mean colder and snowier weather in the Midwest while leaving Los Angeles relatively dry for the next three months.”

Forecasters said skies should be partly cloudy today and Wednesday, with pleasant temperatures and a gradual rise in the relative humidity. The clouds are expected to thicken Thursday, Friday and Saturday, with an increasing chance of showers as a weak storm system passes across to the north. Conflicting interpretations by weather service computers indicate the storm might strengthen, remain relatively weak or, as Patzert suggested, fizzle out altogether.