Candidates' fault lines on issues emerge

By Mark Z. Barabak and Michael Finnegan

June 11, 2007 12 AM PT

Times Staff Writers

Close the prison at Guantanamo, or double its size? Raise or lower taxes? Let the free market or the federal government mend the healthcare system?

With months still to go before the presidential primaries, the rough contours of the 2008 general election are already taking shape as Democrats and Republicans divide over those issues, Iraq and others. Come next year, voters could face choices similar to those in the polarized 2004 campaign.

“The differences among us are minor,” Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York said in a Democratic presidential debate June 3. “The differences between us and the Republicans are major. And I don’t want anybody in America to be confused.”

Clinton was talking about the war in Iraq and trying to sidestep an assault from party rivals. But she could just as well have been discussing the partisan divide over letting gays and lesbians serve openly in the military (Democrats say yes) or whether America should establish English as its official language (Democrats say no).

For now, candidates on both sides are mainly focused on winning their parties’ nominations. Meanwhile, in their campaign appearances and in five nationally televised debates, the leading contenders have begun staking a series of bright-line positions the eventual nominees will probably carry into the fall campaign.

The current political landscape seems to favor Democrats. A survey conducted by the Pew Research Center after last week’s back-to-back New Hampshire debates found most Americans closer to Democrats’ support for raising taxes, putting more tax dollars into healthcare, pulling out of Iraq and allowing gays to serve openly in the military.

“Democrats’ great advantage is they represent change,” said Andrew Kohut, president of the nonpartisan Pew Center. “We’re in an environment in which the public is favoring change and not continuity.”

Still, Kohut and others said, it is impossible to know whether Democrats will retain that edge all the way to November 2008.

“The issue agenda, at least right now, tilts pretty heavily against Republicans,” GOP strategist Tony Fabrizio said. “That doesn’t mean the race will be about the issue agenda. The race could be about character. The race could be about leadership. The race could be about a whole host of things, not necessarily the specifics of healthcare or taxes or education.”

Some issues, though, go to the core of each party’s beliefs, giving voters a distinct choice. Abortion and taxes, both an important part of the primary campaign, are two.

Democrats talk of the need to keep abortion legal and ensure that women make their own healthcare choices, not “the government or ... some men sitting on the United States Supreme Court,” as former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina put it when Democrats held a debate in April. The major Republican candidates, with the notable exception of former New York Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani, would like to reverse the high court decision legalizing abortion.

On taxes, all the leading Democrats would restore the higher rates paid by upper-income Americans before President Bush took office. In addition, Sen. Christopher J. Dodd of Connecticut has proposed a carbon tax to fight global warming.

Republicans, by contrast, emphasize spending cuts; some advocate lowering taxes even more. “I’d like middle-income Americans to be able to save their money and not have to pay any tax at all on interest, dividends or capital gains,” former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney said at the GOP debate last month in Simi Valley. (Former Sen. Fred D. Thompson of Tennessee, campaigning from the sidelines as he prepares to enter the Republican race, mainly echoes other top-tier candidates.)

The split over healthcare also reflects broad philosophical differences.

Generally, Democrats favor a bigger role for government in the nation’s healthcare system, and Republicans advocate free-market steps toward covering the estimated 45 million people who lack insurance.

Edwards and Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) would roll back the Bush tax cuts for upper-income Americans -- those making more than $200,000 a year under Edwards’ plan and $250,000 a year under Obama’s proposal -- to pay for expanded healthcare.

“I believe that unless we have a law requiring that every man, woman and child in America be covered, we’re going to have millions of people who aren’t covered,” Edwards said at last week’s New Hampshire debate. (Clinton, whose healthcare overhaul plan collapsed during her husband’s presidency, has yet to unveil a comprehensive proposal.)

The leading Republicans reject that approach. Giuliani proposed giving Americans a tax deduction that would encourage them to buy whatever insurance they like, as they do for their homes or automobiles. “What the Democrats suggested on this stage two nights ago was socialized medicine,” he said.

Democrats and Republicans also sharply disagree on whether gays and lesbians should be allowed to serve openly in the military. Last week all eight Democrats favored revoking the current “don’t ask, don’t tell” approach. Clinton, whose husband installed the policy, quoted the late Republican Sen. Barry Goldwater of Arizona: “You don’t have to be straight to shoot straight.” The 10 Republicans who took the stage Tuesday were unanimously opposed.

Another fault line has emerged over making English the nation’s official language. Apart from former Sen. Mike Gravel of Alaska, all the Democrats on stage were opposed.

“The issue is not whether or not future generations of immigrants are going to learn English,” Obama said. “The question is: How can we come up with both a legal, sensible immigration policy? And when we get distracted by those kinds of questions, I think we do a disservice to the American people.”

Among Republicans, Sen. John McCain of Arizona was the only candidate to share those reservations. “I think it’s fine,” he said of establishing English as the official language. But he noted that the government has treaties with the Navajo tribe “where we respect their sovereignty and they use their native language in their deliberations. It’s not a big deal.”

As those comments suggest, there are a few issues that don’t fall neatly along partisan lines. Clinton, Obama and Edwards would close the U.S. detention center at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, a stance shared by McCain.

But Romney flatly rejects the notion: “My view is we ought to double Guantanamo,” he said at last month’s GOP debate in South Carolina.

The biggest issue facing the candidates, Iraq, is also the least predictable. Democrats are opposed to the war, offering different exit plans. Leading Republicans call Iraq a vital front in the fight against terrorism.

No one knows what the conditions will be a few months from now, much less in November 2008, and no issue will probably do more to shape the political environment.

“If we’re still in Iraq, it’s going to be a real problem for the Republicans,” pollster Kohut said. “If we pull out and the place is falling apart worse than it is now, that may take some of the Democrats’ advantage away.”

mark.barabak@latimes.com

michael.finnegan@latimes.com

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX)

Where the top contenders stand

HILLARY RODHAM CLINTON

Taxes: Favors rolling back President Bush’s tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans.

Iraq war: Favors a cap on troop levels and phased withdrawal, with the U.S. out by 2009.

Healthcare: Working on a plan for universal healthcare. Would require insurers in federal programs such as Medicare and Medicaid to cover prevention. Would end discrimination against those with preexisting conditions.

Guantanamo Bay: Favors closing U.S. detention center.

JOHN EDWARDS

Taxes: Favors rolling back Bush tax cuts for those making more than $200,000 a year and using a portion of the revenue to finance expanded healthcare.

Iraq war: Favors capping funding for troops at 100,000 and withdrawal of all combat troops over the next 12 to 18 months.

Healthcare: Would require employers to provide coverage or help workers buy it, and allow employers or consumers to join regional pools to purchase in bulk and hold down premium costs. Wants to expand Medicaid and other public health programs.

Guantanamo Bay: Favors closing detention center.

BARACK OBAMA

Taxes: Would roll back Bush tax cuts for those making more than $250,000 a year to finance expanded healthcare.

Iraq war: Supports capping troop levels at 130,000 and completing pullout of combat brigades by March 31, 2008.

Healthcare: Would expand federal role in regulating insurers and paying for costliest cases. Would require most employers to contribute to worker coverage; require parents to obtain insurance for children.

Guantanamo Bay: Favors closing detention center.

RUDOLPH W. GIULIANI

Taxes: Supports making Bush tax cuts permanent.

Iraq war: Supported the president’s “surge” plan and opposes establishment of a timetable for withdrawal. Would keep troops in Iraq until the country is stabilized.

Healthcare: Backs moving individuals from employerbased plans to the free market, with tax deductions to help pay for insurance. Opposes governmentmandated universal care.

Guantanamo Bay: Supports a wide range of interrogation tactics; no position on Guantanamo closure.

JOHN MCCAIN

Taxes: Supports making Bush tax cuts permanent.

Iraq war: Voted for the invasion; criticizes the conduct of the war. Believes a pullout would lead to further instability and conflicts in the region.

Healthcare: Would make generic drugs more available to individuals and ease restrictions on importing drugs as a way of driving down prescription expenses. Backs caps on malpractice suits. Opposes mandated universal care.

Guantanamo Bay: Favors closing detention center.

MITT ROMNEY

Taxes: Supports making Bush tax cuts permanent; would eliminate federal taxes on interest, dividends and capital gains for the middle class, not the wealthy.

Iraq war: Supports Bush and troop increase; criticizes conduct of the war. Says keeping troops there is key to fighting terrorism.

Healthcare: Would leave reform up to states. As governor, approved a plan requiring Massachusetts residents to enroll in Medicaid or buy health insurance. Nationally, favors a market-based approach to expanding care.

Guantanamo Bay: Supports “enhanced interrogation techniques.” Has suggested doubling the size of the detention center.

Sources: Associated Press, Pew Forum, Times reporting