Let the bet hedging begin

DAVID GEFFEN offered sage advice to his Hollywood friends when it came to deciding whom to support in this year’s presidential election: Follow your heart.

But sometimes the heart sends mixed messages. Take Jon Peters, for example. The “Superman Returns” producer, former Sony Pictures chairman and onetime Barbra Streisand boyfriend is heading off to New York to work on his memoirs with Judith Regan. And while Peters is there, he plans to pay a visit to New York Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg, who is said to be exploring the possibility of entering the 2008 presidential race as an independent -- sort of like a Ralph Nader but with former presidential candidate Mitt Romney’s money.

“David Geffen is one of the smartest men I know, and he tells me [Sen. Barack] Obama is the next president,” Peters said. “But I think once you incorporate the super delegates, the Democratic primary is too close to call.

“Should [Sen. Hillary Rodham] Clinton emerge as the nominee, she will hold her own in Hollywood, but you will see a number of Hollywood players shift to [Sen. John] McCain and Mayor Bloomberg, should he toss his hat into the ring,” he said, adding, “Personally, I have received calls from both camps.”

Peters -- who, by the way, previously has given to the presidential campaigns of Michael S. Dukakis, Bill Clinton and George W. Bush -- knows better than most how to hedge a bet, and there may be a lot of that west of La Brea and south of Mulholland in the weeks ahead.

Hollywood came out of Super Tuesday the way the parties did: fractured, a little dazed and slightly confused.

The industry’s partisans and activists had been looking for the guidance of a little audience research. They wanted voters to give them feedback on how their candidates were playing. But the delegate counts have proved harder to understand than Nielsen ratings.

Hollywood’s biggest political fundraisers are back where they started: hitting friends up for donations and endorsements. It could get positively Darwinian. Call it survival of the biggest “Q” number.

Peters aside -- and barring a late surge by Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas) -- what this means is that McCain, Clinton and Obama will have to spend nearly as much time courting Hollywood (and its money) as they will campaigning for the Texas primary. After all, they don’t call Tinseltown the ATM of U.S. politics for nothing.

As with any good show, there will be lots of improvisations, but at the moment the script looks pretty much like this:

John McCain

Ever since he declared victory on Super Tuesday, his people have been working the phones, trying to rally support among industry insiders.

He was here last week for a fundraiser at the home of MGM Chairman and Chief Executive Harry Sloan. (Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger stopped by. So did former Rudolph W. Guiliani supporter Kelsey Grammer.) Millionaire businesswoman Noel Irwin Hentschel, a Republican with many friends in Hollywood, said she plans to hold a gathering for McCain in the coming weeks at her Bel-Air estate.

She said former studio chief Sherry Lansing and her director husband, William Friedkin, live in the neighborhood. So does former studio head and Yahoo honcho Terry Semel. She’s hoping the three will stop by to meet McCain, who charmed the showbiz crowd in 2000.

“He’s funny and he’s feisty and he’s focused,” Hentschel said of McCain. “He’s authentic.”

McCain’s got a significant boost from what many in Hollywood saw as Bill Clinton’s condescending treatment of Obama. It made the Arizona’s senator’s what-you-see-is-what-you-get personality look newly attractive.

If it’s a race between Hillary Clinton and McCain, some of the more moderate Dems may just bolt to the GOP.

Hillary Rodham Clinton

This week brought news that Clinton had loaned her campaign $5 million, which immediately sparked a wave of gossip among the Hollywood politicos. Then the calls went out for more donations, they started coming in and Clinton’s supporters wanted everyone to top off the tank. (A lot of those calls apparently went to voicemail. There is serious Clinton fatigue in some quarters.)

After the Kodak Theatre debate, there was a lot of talk about reports that Steven Spielberg had been coaching her on her delivery, as he did with former Vice President Al Gore in 2000. (Even Spielberg couldn’t get the future Nobel laureate to loosen up.)

People were impressed with Clinton’s performance. “This is your ticket to the stars,” said Sim Farar, Clinton’s national finance chairman and one of Hollywood’s top fundraisers. “We’re going all the way.”

Bill Clinton is expected to make a trip to Los Angeles in the near future to remind Hollywood of its long and deep ties to his family.

Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton tied up the endorsement of Jack Nicholson this week.

Barack Obama

Ever since Iowa, Obama has been on a roll in Hollywood. The only thing the Industry likes better than a winner is a winner who started as an underdog. That’s Obama’s story, and his supporters are sticking with it.

Irena Medavoy and her producer husband, Mike, were doing their part this week to keep the money train moving for the Illinois senator. Like the rest of Hollywood’s Obamaites, they were declaring victory all around.

“We’re excited and we’re motivated,” Irena Medavoy said. “Nobody here dislikes Hillary; it’s just that we love Obama.”

It seems the contest between the two Dems will continue for months. For Hollywood, as for the country, this election cycle has turned into a cliffhanger. The conventions could have ratings higher than the Oscars.

Irena Medavoy summed it up this way: “Here we go into history, babe.”

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tina.daunt@latimes.com