For bubble teams, there’s toils and troubles ahead

This is the time of year when we start saying goodbye to preseason favorites (Connecticut, North Carolina) and welcoming some surprises (Temple, Wisconsin).

The good news for teams that are between locks and long-gones is that time remains to make a case to get into the NCAA tournament.

But as Heidi Klum says, “One day you’re in, the next you’re out.”

Here’s a look at some of the major conferences and which teams in the country still need to work to make the final cut for an at-large bid.

Atlantic Coast

Bubble team to watch: Georgia Tech (17-8, Ratings Percentage Index 29). The Yellow Jackets are only 2-7 away from home against teams in the top 100, according to CollegeRPI.com, and are just 1-5 in ACC road games. But they do have home wins against Duke, Clemson and Wake Forest.

Others on the bubble: Clemson, Florida State, Maryland, Virginia Tech.

In: Duke, Wake Forest.

Out: Boston College, Miami, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Virginia.

Atlantic 10

Bubble team to watch: Charlotte (18-6, RPI 41). The 49ers have three wins against top-50 opponents, beating Temple, Richmond and Louisville. The downside is they have lost six other games to teams in this category.

Other bubble teams: Dayton, Rhode Island.

In: Richmond, Temple, Xavier.

Out: Duquesne, Fordham, George Washington, La Salle, Massachusetts, St. Bonaventure, St. Louis, St. Joseph’s.

Big East

Bubble team to watch: Louisville (16-9, RPI 31). Winning at Syracuse on Sunday was huge, but the Cardinals still have Georgetown and Syracuse at home and Connecticut and Marquette on the road. A 19-point loss to St. John’s hurts their resume.

Other bubble teams: Cincinnati, Marquette, South Florida.

In: Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia.

Out: Connecticut, DePaul, Notre Dame, Providence, Rutgers, Seton Hall, St. John’s.

Big Ten

Bubble team to watch: Northwestern (17-8, RPI 77). The Wildcats probably have to win out and make some waves in the conference tournament to get in. So far they have only one signature victory -- against Purdue.

Other bubble team: Illinois.

In: Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin.

Out: Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Penn State.

Big 12

Bubble team to watch: Oklahoma State (17-7, RPI 39). The Cowboys are 2-5 in road games and only 4-7 against the RPI top 100. A win at Kansas State will carry some weight, though.

Other bubble teams: Missouri, Texas Tech.

In: Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, Texas, Texas A&M.

Out: Colorado, Iowa State, Nebraska, Oklahoma.

Southeastern

Bubble team to watch: Florida (17-8, RPI 59). The Gators’ victories over Michigan State and Florida State stand out. If they beat Tennessee, Vanderbilt and Kentucky, they’re in.

Bubble teams: Mississippi, Mississippi State.

In: Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt.

Out: Auburn, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Louisiana State, South Carolina.

Mountain West

Bubble team to watch: San Diego State (18-7, RPI 40). A win over Nevada Las Vegas helps the Aztecs’ chances. Losses to Pacific and Wyoming hurt.

Other bubble teams: None.

In: Brigham Young, New Mexico, UNLV.

Out: Air Force, Colorado State, Texas Christian, Utah, Wyoming.

Pacific 10

Bubble team to watch: California (17-8, RPI 24). The Bears played an aggressive nonconference schedule, ranked first in the nation for strength. But it’s a deceiving stat. Cal hasn’t beaten an RPI top-50 team.

Other bubble team: Washington.

In: Conference tournament winner only.

Out: Arizona, Arizona State, Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Washington State.

Bracket watch

*Four top seedings: Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse, Villanova.

*Last four in:

Illinois (17-9, RPI 70). The blowout loss to Ohio State doesn’t help, but that victory at Wisconsin sure does.

Marquette (16-8, RPI 57). The Golden Eagles can prove themselves more with a victory against Pitt.

Mississippi State (18-7, RPI 58). The Bulldogs swept fellow bubble team Mississippi.

Siena (22-5, RPI 35). The Saints won 15 in a row before loss to Niagara.

*First four out:

Dayton (17-7, RPI 32). Any momentum from beating Charlotte was erased with a loss to St. Louis.

Florida. The Gators wasted a big chance to help their profile, losing to Xavier at home.

St. Mary’s (21-5, RPI 44). The Gaels lost twice last week, falling to Gonzaga for a second time and to Portland in overtime.

Mississippi (17-7, RPI 48). Beating Texas El Paso on a neutral court and South Carolina at home is solid but not enough.

sryan@tribune.com