In year of outsiders, Florida governor stands his ground

Reporting from Tallahassee, Fla. —  It’s easy to find people who will say bad things about Charlie Crist.

He will “say or do anything to get elected,” says Marco Rubio, his Republican rival in the race to be a U.S. senator from Florida. “He’s the most evasive politician when it comes to answering questions,” growls the Democrat in the race, Rep. Kendrick B. Meek. The incoming president of the Florida Senate, Republican Mike Haridopolos, laments, “There’s just no trust.”

Especially among the state’s political class, there’s little love for the Florida governor after he bolted the GOP and became an independent candidate for the Senate.

But a large chunk of the state’s voters appears to view him much more favorably.

Polls have shown Crist either as the favorite in the three-way contest or running neck and neck with Rubio — with Meek trailing far behind.

When Crist launched his independent bid four months ago, the accepted wisdom was that he would run short of support — and, more crucially, money — as the summer progressed, leaving the Republican and the Democrat to battle in a traditional manner.

That hasn’t happened.

Instead, Crist appears to have made a successful pitch to moderates, including many Democrats. He has more cash on hand for his campaign than either Rubio or Meek. The ex-Republican even snagged an endorsement recently from the Teamsters. And perhaps most important, he commands the bully pulpit of the governor’s office.

With Meek finally securing the Democratic nomination in late August after a bruising primary, the stage is set for a three-man sprint to the finish that defies prognostication and has campaign strategists rewriting their playbooks.

“Three-way chess is a lot more complicated than two-way chess,” says Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster and a Rubio consultant.

A victory by the centrist Crist in a populous state would counter the notion that this is an election cycle governed by extremes, favoring candidates who are outsiders. Crist, 54, has almost two decades of government service under his belt.

Crist’s continued viability also has left the Democratic Party in a somewhat serious fix. For weeks, speculation built in Washington that Meek could be left high and dry, with the party tacitly backing Crist instead. But after former President Clinton and the Obama White House came to Meek’s aid, the congressman responded by walloping his primary challenger, Jeff Greene.

Had Greene, a billionaire businessman with little political support, defeated Meek, national Democrats would have felt free to back Crist. Now, however, they can’t easily do that.

In public, Democrats remain bullish on Meek. But the Democratic National Committee and the party’s Senate campaign organization also have kept their powder dry on Crist, refusing to attack him the way they routinely slam opponents.

There’s no guarantee that Crist would align himself with Democrats, as have the Senate’s other independents, Joe Lieberman of Connecticut and Bernie Sanders of Vermont.

But in the polarized Senate, it would be difficult for Crist to stay on the sidelines. And party affiliation translates into committee assignments, legislative opportunities and financial support.

It’s been a whipsaw time for Crist, who just two years ago was believed to be on Sen. John McCain’s short list for vice president when the Arizona Republican ran for president. Silver-haired, tanned, with a ready smile and easygoing manner, Crist (whose family name is Greek and shortened from “Christodoulou”) has long been a familiar figure for Floridians.

Never a hard-core conservative on social issues, Crist nevertheless earned the nickname “Chain Gang Charlie” for his law-and-order reputation while a member of the Florida Senate. Later, in 2002, he was elected attorney general, and four years later succeeded Jeb Bush as governor.

When he declined to run for a second term and said that he would instead run for the Senate seat left open by the retiring Mel Martinez, it looked like he would sail into office.

But his centrism, once such an asset for Republicans such as McCain, became a millstone, and the challenge from Rubio, a charismatic 39-year-old conservative with ties to the “tea party” movement, seemed to doom his campaign before it got off the ground.

In April, long before the state’s Republican primary, Crist surprised the state with his announcement that he would leave the GOP and go it alone. And perhaps the more surprising development is that it appears to be working.

The governor’s break with the party gave him the freedom to veto Republican-backed legislation such as a bill that would tie teacher pay to test scores. The massive oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico gave him the chance to crusade against offshore drilling, and Crist spent much of his time during the disaster in pure governor mode, walking the beaches of the Florida Panhandle rather than campaigning.

“He’s shown enormous leadership,” said Susan Glickman, a Florida environmental activist.

Meek, not surprisingly, disagrees. “Walking on the beach and pointing at oil is not leadership,” he said at a campaign event in West Palm Beach.

But some at Meek’s event wouldn’t rule out voting for the governor. “I don’t dislike Crist,” said Philip Whitacre, 78, a retired Navy rear admiral. “Maybe he’s the lesser of [the] evils.”

Rubio’s camp is counting on Crist and Meek splitting the Democratic vote, while Meek hopes Crist will drain votes away from Rubio.

So Meek’s campaign reminds voters of Crist’s conservative past (he opposed the federal healthcare overhaul, for example), while Rubio’s highlights Crist’s more left-leaning positions (he supported the stimulus and has straddled the line on same-sex marriage and abortion).

Both Marco and Meeks will frame Crist as a flip-flopping opportunist, leaving Crist fighting a two-front war.

Chris Ingram, a Republican strategist in Tampa, believes Crist will win — although he makes it clear that he isn’t a fan.

“Charlie Crist is the consummate wind-testing, poll-driven politician who will give the public exactly what it wants,” Ingram says. “He makes people feel good.”

joliphant@latimes.com