Forget California exodus. New Jersey residents lead an influx back into the Golden State
After a half decade of Californians moving to places like Texas and Florida, an unlikely state has been supplying California with new residents.
New Jersey, a similarly expensive and densely populated state, saw more residents move to California than the other way around in 2022 — a rarity amid the state’s population exodus. It was one of only eight states to be part of a reverse exodus phenomenon, and the state with the largest net number of transplants to California.
Among those moving from the Garden State to the Golden State was Korri Sammad, 26, who made the move from South Orange, N.J., to Los Angeles in 2021 to pursue his performance art career.
He moved with $1,200 in his pocket. “I didn’t have a job or anything, I just tried to figure it out,” he said. Jobs included serving at a Dave and Buster’s restaurant, then working at strip clubs, where his job “was to rake up money for the female dancers.”
After nine months in Los Angeles, Sammad moved in with a cousin in Hayward. Since then, he’s been working and performing, primarily rapping at gay bars up and down the West Coast. “I had like 25 shows in one year,” he said. “I’ve definitely gotten a lot more access being in California.”
Though Sammad misses “the vibe of the people” in New Jersey, where he thinks people move faster because of the cold, he believes that California has changed his life and perspective. He plans to stay.
Cities in the Los Angeles area are seeing lower rents as Orange County prices hold firm or even increase. Experts are calling for more tenant protections.
In recent years, California has experienced a net exodus to most other states, with experts attributing the population shift primarily to California’s high housing costs. But a handful of states have bucked that trend, sending transplants into the Golden State at a time when more people are moving out. New Jersey, one of the nation’s most densely populated states, has recently recorded the biggest net exodus of residents moving to California.
In 2022, the so-called California exodus resulted in 818,000 Californians leaving for other states, while 476,000 moved in, resulting in a total domestic loss of 342,000 in the Golden State.
The exodus was highlighted by the droves who left for Texas. The five states that saw the most net arrivals from California — Texas, Arizona, Nevada, Florida and Idaho — each had between 20,000 and 60,000 more people arrive than leave for the Golden State.
Commute times decreased during the pandemic after rising for years before. As Southern California sprawls, long commutes seem to be inevitable.
By contrast, the eight states that were net contributors to California’s population added to a net contribution under 15,000 people. In other words, the size of the net exodus to each state has been much larger than the number of transplants moving into California.
More than 13,000 New Jerseyans moved to California in 2022, and fewer than 7,000 Californians moved to New Jersey. The net migration into California — nearly 7,000 people — was the highest of any state. Illinois was second, with net in-migration to California of around 4,000 people.
Nebraska, with 2,000 more leaving for California than arriving, was the third highest.
In total, 41 of 49 states saw more Californian arrivals than departures for the Golden State.
Typically, experts point to the state’s housing and affordability crisis as the primary driver of migration decisions.
However, New Jerseyans face “many of the same problems that Californians do in terms of cost of living and taxes,” said Ashley Koning, assistant research professor and director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers University–New Brunswick.
In a 2023 poll, one-third of New Jersey residents polled said they would want to leave New Jersey if given the chance, she said, adding that she was surprised that those leaving would go somewhere that is “certainly not a cost savings by any means.”
New transplants from other states and countries are disproportionately educated, new census data show, discounting the notion of a California ‘brain drain.’
Koning listed several possibilities as to why residents of her home state might make the move.
“It could be something as simple as the weather,” she theorized. “We experience all four seasons like many parts of California don’t.”
The polling suggests “it could very well be a move among millennials and younger adults,” Koning said. Similar lack of affordability across the two states suggested that “this is more about ambiance and atmosphere and potentially job opportunities” in tech, she said.
The California exodus has slowed but continued since 2020, with the state’s population declining by 0.1% between July 2022 and July 2023, according to new Census Bureau data.
Cost of living was not a factor in Sammad’s move. Hayward is an exurb of San Francisco, much like South Orange is an exurb of New York, and costs are comparable, he said.
“The gas prices are crazy, but other than that everything is pretty much the same cost,” he said.
The rapper plans to move back to Los Angeles this summer. “I want to be seen, I want to be out there,” he said. “California is the perfect place for me to do that.
“I didn’t grow up on a beach, or around palm trees,” Sammad said, and now that he’s gotten a taste of the West Coast he’s realized it’s the right place for him. “This is my new home for sure.”
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