Column: Harris' defeat opens a bumpy path to the White House for Newsom

By George SkeltonCapitol Journal Columnist

Nov. 7, 2024 12:44 PM PT

SACRAMENTO — Gov. Gavin Newsom got a huge political boost when Donald Trump defeated Kamala Harris in Tuesday’s presidential election. Newsom now has a direct path to the White House in 2028.

With Harris — his fellow Californian and longtime Democratic ally — not running for reelection in 2028, Newsom won’t feel politically and morally inhibited from entering the race.

That’s the conventional way of looking at the election’s impact on Newsom. But there’s also another way: Newsom’s brand of fiercely anti-Trump liberal politics was rejected by most American voters. What does that portend for his national political future?

Once again, California — despite it wielding by far the largest cache of electoral votes in the nation — kept its record intact of never having sent a Democrat to the White House. In fact, Harris was the first California Democrat to ever be nominated for president.

If Harris had won Tuesday, Newsom, 57, could have kissed any presidential aspirations goodbye. He’d instead be pondering whether to ask Harris for a Cabinet post, abandoning his last two years as governor. That would have been a lousy trade. Tedious and boring. But the option’s now off the table anyway.

So, should Newsom leap into the political breach and prepare to run when Trump is termed out in four years? Actually, Newsom would need to start running full-bore the minute he’s termed out as governor in about two years — and be warming up long before.

Sure, go for it, if he really, deep down covets the Oval Office. I’ve always had doubts and wondered whether he just enjoys — as any politician would — the national attention and being mentioned in the same sentence with potential presidents. But I’m in the minority on that.

“When any governor of California — the largest state by far with more people than Australia — looks in the mirror in the morning, they always see a president staring back,” says Garry South, a veteran Democratic tactician and political strategist for former Gov. Gray Davis.

I’m also very skeptical Newsom could be elected president. The party’s nomination? Perhaps. But the Oval? He’s too liberal for most of America.

Longtime Democratic strategist Bill Carrick says that after Democratic insiders conduct a thorough autopsy of Tuesday’s defeat they may “reach the conclusion they can’t run somebody [in 2028] who’s going to come off as too progressive.”

“I think a progressive could get the nomination if they’re a good enough candidate,” Carrick adds. “But can they win in November? That’s the big question.”

Regardless, Newsom inevitably will be pushed into the presidential arena by the news media, which already has anointed him as a leading contender. His persona and name help TV ratings, and draw clicks and readers.

“He’s one of the most charismatic and articulate figures that Democrats have right now,” says South, who advised the then-San Francisco mayor when he attempted to run for governor in 2010 before stepping aside for Jerry Brown.

“There has to be a Democratic face of opposition to Trump policies and Newsom could play that role,” South says. “There’s got to be some Democrat who pops up. And after Newsom’s term is up, he’ll be foot-loose and fancy-free.”

Newsom isn’t waiting until his day job ends. The governor popped up Thursday with a stunt that signaled he wants to lead the attack on Trump.

Newsom called a special legislative session — he loves ordering up these attention-getting “special” sessions— ”to safeguard California and fundamental rights in the face of an incoming Trump administration.”

“The freedoms we hold dear in California are under attack and we won’t sit idle,” the governor declared in a statement. “We are prepared to fight…”

He said legislators “will focus on bolstering California legal resources to protect civil rights, reproductive freedom, climate action and immigrant families.”

In other words, political animal Newsom is marking his territory as the anti-Trump lead dog.

Actually, it’s just the next phase of his previous nationwide travels to promote the Democratic ticket while laying the groundwork for a potential presidential bid.

One factor Newsom — or any Democrat — presumably will benefit from in 2028 is that voters again will be seeking change after four years of Trump rule. The underlying motivator behind voting in the last three presidential elections has been the demand for change.

Trump got elected in 2016 because voters sought change from Democrat Barack Obama’s two presidential terms. And Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton definitely did not represent change.

Then in 2020, voters sought change from despicable Trump and elected Joe Biden. And on Tuesday, they sought relief from the “Biden-Harris” administration. By 2028, they most likely again will be fed up with Trumpism.

But the presidency may be a bridge too far for a California Democrat.

For much of America, we’re La La Land on the left coast, a socialist state harboring the likes of San Francisco liberals Harris and Newsom — welcoming illegal immigration, coddling criminals, overregulating business and suffocating successful people with sky-high taxes.

Rather than attacking Trump even before all the votes are counted, Newsom should focus on trying to burnish his record as California governor. Homelessness is still a disgrace. People are fleeing the state because they can’t afford to live here. The tax system is outdated and broken.

Not even California voters agree with Newsom’s lenient sentencing policies for repeat criminals — as shown by the landslide approval of Proposition 36.

And he should ease up on the hyper rhetoric about climate change. Not every wildfire, flood, hurricane or hot day is the result of global warming. And constantly attacking Big Oil is an assault on thousands of workers who vote.

So, yes, start running for president — but veer a bit toward the middle.