Poll Analysis: Californians Think State Is Going in Right Direction

Californians are more positive about the direction of the state and the condition of the economy than they have been in recent years. President Clinton's job approval rating soars along with California's economy, but the job ratings of Governor Pete Wilson and the state legislature have not improved from six months ago.
     For the first time in the 1990s, a majority of Californians believe things in California are generally going in the right direction, according to a new Los Angeles Times poll. Not only are Californians satisfied with the direction of the state, they are also satisfied with the job performance of President Bill Clinton. President Clinton's job approval has reached 72%, up 11 percent from when it was last measured statewide in an October 1997 Times Poll. However, while President Clinton's rating has risen alongside the surging economy, Governor Pete Wilson's and the state legislature's ratings have held at the same modest level of six months ago.
     
Perception of California's economyand direction
With the Dow soaring, unemployment rates lower than they have been in years and low interest rates, for the first time since the Times Poll began asking the question in 1991 a majority of Californians think things in the state are moving in the right direction. Fifty-two percent of Californians believe things in California are generally going in the right direction. This is up from 47% in a Times Poll conducted in November and December 1997. Thirty-eight percent believe things are seriously off on the wrong track. The perception regarding California's direction has steadily improved since May 1992 when just 13% gave the state a positive evaluation during the depth of the recession. That number was up to 25% two years later and improved to 32% by March 1996 as residents began to take notice of the recovering economy. The proportion saying that things are going in the right direction went above 40% in October 1996.
     The positive perception of the state's direction is far-reaching, with similarly high proportions of Democrats, Republicans, liberals, moderates and conservatives saying the state is moving in the right direction. African American residents are less likely to hold this view, with just 37% saying things are going in the right direction and 49% believing that the state is seriously off on the wrong track. Residents in the Bay Area and Central Valley are also more likely than residents in other regions throughout the state to think things are off on the wrong track, with 45% and 41% respectively giving this response. Furthermore, the most educated Californians, those with a college degree, are more positive about the state's direction (61%), than those with only some college (50%), high school graduates (49%) and those with less than a high school diploma (46%). More affluent residents are also more likely to have a positive perception of the state's direction. And while there is little difference in opinion between men and women overall, older women have a less positive view than younger women (49% to 59%) and Democratic women are less positive than Republican women (49% to 58%).
     Standing behind the positive perception of the state's direction may be the even more positive evaluation of the state's economy. Two-thirds (66%) of Californians describe the state's economy as "robust." This is up 11 points from an October 1997 Times poll, when 55% described the state in this manner. Positive perception of the economy has also increased throughout the 1990s (according to Los Angeles Times polls). In December 1991, just 16% of residents called the economy robust. That number dropped further to 9% nearly two years later in October 1993 before improving gradually from that point forward.
     High proportions of Democrats (69%) and Republicans (77%) and residents of all ideological positions believe the state's economy is robust today. However, independents are more inclined than other subgroups to think the economy is shaky, with 39% giving this response. Views also are disparate when looking at residents by gender, age, income, region, ethnicity, and marital status.
     Men are more likely than women to believe the California economy is robust (72% to 60%). Women typically have a more negative view on the economy than men -- perhaps because they generally earn less income and are employed in lower proportions. However, for the first time in the past few years, a majority of women consider the economy robust (according to Los Angeles Times polls). In October 1997, just 43% of women called the economy robust. Republican women are more positive than Democratic women (75% to 62%) and older women are more positive than younger women (64% to 55%).
     Older Californians are more likely than younger Californians to believe the economy is robust. While 51% of 18 to 29 year olds gave this response, 69% of those between 30 and 44, 66% of those between 45 and 64, and 76% of residents 65 years of age or older did so. Eighteen to 29 year old residents are less likely to be employed and more likely to have lower incomes than 30 to 64 year old residents. This may account for their more negative perception of the economy and the state's direction.
     Unsurprisingly, given the uncertainty of their own financial position, residents making less than $20,000 a year in household income are divided over whether the economy is shaky or robust (48%-48%). More affluent residents are more positive: 61% of those making between $20,000 and $40,000, 70% of those making between $40,000 and $60,000, and 85% of those making more than $60,000 a year in household income describe the economy as robust.
     Residents in the Central Valley are far more negative about the state's economy, with 48% describing it as shaky and 51% believing the economy is robust. Meanwhile, the vast majority of residents in Los Angeles County (67%), the rest of Southern California (72%), the Bay Area (73%), and the rest of Northern California (72%) consider the state's economy robust. The Central Valley has not received the economic boost experienced in regions of the state with high-tech, manufacturing, and entertainment industries. Furthermore, the Central Valley includes a disproportionate number of lower income and less educated residents -- two groups more likely to view the economy as shaky.
     African Americans are more than twice as likely as whites to believe the economy is shaky, with 57% giving this response compared to just 26% of whites. Forty-six percent of Latinos also feel the economy is shaky. African Americans and Latinos are also more likely to be less affluent -- a trait that is correlated with a more negative impression of the economy.
     Perception of a strong economy also increases with rising education. Residents with less than a high school education are more likely to see the economy as shaky (50%) than robust (45%). Sixty percent of residents with a high school education, 67% of residents with some college education, and 85% of those with a college degree or more believe the economy is robust. Education and income level are also correlated and impact one's impression of the economy.
     Married residents have a more positive impression of the state's economy as well, with 71% calling it robust and 27% calling it shaky, to 60%-38% among unmarried Californians. Unmarried residents tend to be younger and therefore are more likely to be unemployed and making lower incomes.
     
Most important problems facing the state
When the economy is strong, residents have more energy to turn their attention to social problems such as education. The survey results clearly show this to be the case today. Once-strong concerns about the economy have now been replaced by concerns about education in California. Twenty-seven percent of Californians name education as one of the two most important problems they see facing the state. The proportion giving this response is up 6 percent from a November/December 1997 Times poll and up 8 points from October 1997. Meanwhile, while the economy was called the most important concern by 44% of Californians three years ago (14% said education at the time), just 21% do so today. Crime continues to be the top concern among Californians, with 35% of respondents naming some form of crime (including drug use, gangs and violence) as one of their top two concerns. The proportion calling immigration/illegal immigration a top concern has also declined. Just 10% of respondents called this one of their two top concerns, compared to 19% in October 1997, 22% in September 1996 (just two months before Prop. 209 appeared on the ballot) and 21% in October 1994 (one month before Prop. 187 appeared on the ballot).
     Education is a strong concern among most subgroups, but was named by higher proportions of liberals (in particular liberal Democrats) and moderates, more affluent residents, and Northern California residents. Only 19% of Latinos, 9% of residents with less than a high school education, and 17% of residents making less than $20,000 a year in household income named education as a top concern. Crime was a stronger concern among less affluent residents, Southern California and Central Valley residents, African Americans, Democratic women, parents and residents with less than a college degree. The economy was a stronger issue with Republican men and African Americans (unemployment in particular among African Americans). Immigration/illegal immigration was named as the most important problem by a slightly higher proportion of more affluent residents, whites, independents and Republicans, and more educated residents.
     
President Clinton's job approval rating
Most likely as an outgrowth of a strong economy, Bill Clinton is enjoying a record job approval rating in California. Seventy-two percent of Californians give the president a positive job approval rating. In fact, 41% said they strongly approve of the job Bill Clinton is doing as president. Clinton's overall approval rating is up 11 points from October 1997 when 61% of Californians gave Clinton a positive review before allegations of sexual misconduct with Monica Lewinsky emerged.
     President Clinton gets high job approval ratings from all subgroups, including 90% of Democrats (62% strongly approving), 67% of independents, and even half (49%) of Republicans. Just six months ago, only 29% of Republicans approved of Clinton's job performance. Today that number is 20 points higher. Eighty-eight percent of liberals, 78% of moderates and 54% of conservatives also approve of the job Bill Clinton is doing as president. Among conservatives, his rating has improved by 14 points -- up from 40% in October 1997. His ratings are up 13 points among men, from 59% in October 1997 to 72% today, and 9 points with women (from 64% to 73%).
     Clinton gets his strongest ratings in the Bay Area (83%) and Los Angeles County (80%) and his weakest ratings -- albeit still quite high -- in the Central Valley (61%) and Southern California excluding Los Angeles County (67%), the two most conservative regions in the state. His ratings are also stronger with unmarried residents (77%) than married Californians (69%) and with African Americans (92%) and Latinos (79%) than whites (68%). Clinton's ratings are universally high among Californians of various ages (although stronger with younger men), incomes, and educational levels.
     
Pete Wilson's job approval rating
California's governor does not fare as well as President Clinton. The strong economy may have helped hold Wilson's rating steady from where it was six months ago, but Californians remain divided in their opinion of him. Currently, 47 percent of California residents approve of the job he is doing and 43% disapprove. In fact, just 13% strongly approve of the Governor's job performance, while 28% strongly disapprove. His overall rating is virtually unchanged from October 1997 when 48% of respondents approved of the job Wilson was doing and 45% disapproved. Wilson's job approval rating had gradually increased over the past 21/2 years; residents disapproved of Wilson by nearly 2 to 1 (60% to 33% approving) in September 1995. Any improvement in Wilson's job rating resulting from the strong economy is most likely washed away by residents holding him accountable for the state's public school system, crime rate, and other problems. President Clinton's rating, which is most likely based on the nation's peace and prosperity, is not as greatly affected as Wilson's by problems specific to California. Furthermore, as a two-term governor, many residents may have reached a solid opinion of Wilson that isn't altered by California's good economic times.
     Unsurprisingly, Wilson does well with members of his own party, receiving a positive approval rating from 72% of Republicans. However, his ratings are fairly weak among Democrats (40% approving) and independents (35% approving, down 12 points from six months ago). While he does quite well with Republicans, his approval ratings are lower with conservatives (58%) and lower still among moderates (55%) and liberals (31%). Wilson's approval rating is also lower among less affluent residents, younger residents, African Americans and Latinos, and residents in Los Angeles County and the Bay Area.
     
The state legislature's job approval rating
Like Wilson, the state legislature did not greatly benefit from the rising tide of economic prosperity in the state. Just 43% of Californians give the California state legislature a positive job approval rating. One-third (34%) disapprove of the job being done by the state legislature and 23% are uncertain. The margin between approval and disapproval (7 points) is slightly better than it was six months ago when 41% gave the legislature a positive review and an equal proportion gave the legislature a negative evaluation. While the proportion giving the state legislature a negative review is slightly lower, this survey marked the first time in over five years that the state legislature did not record an increase in job approval. The state legislature's ratings had steadily improved over the past 51/2 years since it reached a low of 13% approval and 73% disapproval in September 1992.
     Despite the Democrats' control of the legislature, there was very little difference in ratings by party affiliation and ideology. There was also no real difference by gender, age, income, or ethnicity.