Poll Analysis: Clinton’s Leadership Ratings Strong Despite Starr Report

The release of Independent Counsel Kenneth Starr's report outlining potential grounds for impeaching President Clinton has not diminished Clinton's public support, according to a new Los Angeles Times poll. Clinton continues to receive a strong job approval rating and is still widely regarded as an effective leader. Furthermore, most Americans consider his relationship with former White House intern, Monica Lewinsky, to be a private matter and believe he should neither resign nor be impeached.

Opinions on resignation or impeachment
     Americans continue to show great interest in all matters Lewinsky--with 78% of respondents having heard at least a little about the Starr Report. However, despite the report's graphic sexual details of Clinton's relationship with Lewinsky, just 32% of Americans believe Clinton should resign from office (63% think he should not). Moreover, just 18% believe he should be impeached. Another 34% would like Congress to censure the president and 41% would prefer Congress to drop the matter altogether. Contributing to these views may be that 68% of Americans believe Clinton's relationship with Lewinsky is more of a private than a public matter.
     Unsurprisingly, Republicans (58%) and conservatives (51%) are more likely than Democrats (13%) and liberals (18%) to believe that Clinton should resign from office. Moderates (26%) and independents (32%) fall in between in their opinion. However, the vast majority of all Americans, regardless of ideology or party affiliation, do not believe that Clinton should be impeached. Republicans (34%) and conservatives (28%) are more likely than other subgroups to support impeachment, while other Americans are more inclined to censure the president or drop the matter.
     Awareness of the Starr Report impacts views on how Clinton and Congress should react to Clinton's actions. Americans who have heard at least a little about the report are only slightly more likely to believe that Clinton should resign than those who did not hear about the report (34% to 27%). Yet, these Americans are more likely to want the president censured than those who are unaware of the Starr Report (38% to 21%). Americans who have not heard about the Starr Report are more likely to want the matter dropped (52% versus 39% among those who have heard about the Starr Report).
     Older, white, more educated and married Americans are also more likely than other subgroups to believe that Clinton should resign in light of the Starr Report. When it comes to how Congress should react, the same subgroups are slightly more inclined to believe Congress should impeach the president while higher proportions of younger, less educated, lower-income and unmarried Americans and African Americans preferring that Congress drop the matter.
     The partisan cleavage is further illustrated in the perception of whether this issue is a public or private matter. More than 8 out 10 liberals and Democrats and approximately 7 out of 10 moderates and independents believe Clinton's relationship with Lewinsky is more of a private matter. A smaller proportion, 50%, of conservatives and 44% of Republicans feel this way. Americans who have heard about the Starr Report are more likely to see the matter as public (26%) than those who have not (14%). Older Americans are also slightly more inclined to believe this issue is a public matter.
     Belief that Clinton committed offenses outlined in Starr ReportWhile most Americans do not believe that Clinton should resign or be impeached, 60% believe he committed perjury. Americans are divided over whether he attempted to obstruct justice (42% yes and 46% no), tampered with witnesses (40% to 41%), or abused his constitutional powers (42% to 48%).
     Republicans and conservatives are again more likely to believe he committed these offenses than Democrats and liberals (moderates' and independents' views generally fall in between). However, half of liberals, moderates, Democrats and independents believe Clinton committed perjury. Americans who have heard, read, or seen something about the Starr Report are more likely to believe Clinton committed perjury than those who did not (63% to 49%) and they are also more likely to believe that he obstructed justice and tampered with witnesses. Older Americans are also more likely to believe the president committed perjury.

Impact of Starr report on perceptions of Clinton
     When asked directly, 71 percent of Americans said the Starr Report has not changed their opinion of the president. Just 21% said the report has given them a worse opinion of Clinton. When asked specifically if the sexual details included in the report changed their impression of Clinton, 64% said they did not (30% have a more unfavorable view of Clinton as a result). Over the past eight months, Americans have been inundated with information about Clinton and Lewinsky. Therefore, views about Clinton may be well cemented at this point, and even the most lurid details do little to change those views.
     Americans who heard about the Starr Report are more likely to have a diminished view of Clinton than those who have not heard about the report (25% to 9%). Republicans and conservatives are also slightly more likely to have a worse view of Clinton in light of recent developments.
     The Starr Report is more likely to have diminished opinions of Kenneth Starr than president Clinton, with 45% saying that his inclusion of the sexual details gives them a less favorable impression of the Independent Counsel (45% said it does not change their view and six percent said it gives them a more favorable impression). Americans who heard about the Starr Report are also more likely to say that what they heard gives them a more unfavorable impression of the author (49% versus 29% among those with no awareness of the report). Liberals, moderates, Democrats, and independents are also more likely to have an unfavorable impression of Starr in light of his decision to include sexual details in his report.
     Clinton continues to receive a strong job approval rating, with 64% giving him a positive review for the way he is handling his job as president (this number is unchanged from one month ago or from late January when news of the relationship first became public). Even higher proportions--78%--approve of Clinton's handling of the economy. Another indicator that Americans continue to trust Clinton's leadership is that 46% of Americans believe that Clinton has better ideas for how to solve the problems this country currently faces than do the Republicans in Congress. Thirty-two percent believe the Republicans in Congress are better suited to solve the nation's problems. The results to this question are virtually unchanged from the last time this question was asked by the Times Poll in February 1997. In essence, higher proportions of Americans put their trust in the presidency than the Republican controlled Congress.
     Americans also believe that Clinton "cares about people like them" (63%) and is effective and gets things done (73%). In fact, these results are slightly better for the president than they were one month ago.
     Ratings of Clinton's leadership break along party lines, with Democrats having more positive views of the president in each area than Republicans. Clinton is also fairly strong with independents and moderate Americans on each dimension tested. This result bodes well for the president in his ability to sustain majority support from the American public in the coming days.
     Opinions toward Clinton may also be little changed because of the perception that things are going well in the country. Fifty-six percent of Americans believe things in the country are generally going in the right direction, the greatest optimism seen in over five years (with half of Republicans and conservatives giving this response as well). Americans also believe the economy is going well, with 88% giving this response ( a view held by nearly equally high proportions of Americans regardless of party affiliation, ideology, gender, or age).While Clinton's ratings for his presidential leadership remain high, Americans continue to view him more negatively on personal characteristics. The first indicator of this is in his favorable rating--an evaluation based on one's overall impression of Clinton. Americans are nearly divided in their view of the president overall, with 51% rating him favorably and 44% negatively. This finding is virtually unchanged from one month ago, but remains lower than his rating in January 1998 (57% to 36%).
     Americans continue to be divided over whether Clinton has the honesty and integrity to serve as president, with 50% believing he does and 44% believing he does not. They are more resolved in the belief that Clinton does not share their moral values (68% giving this response). However, again, on both these dimensions, opinions have not worsened from one month ago despite the Starr Report.
     Clinton's ratings of personal characteristics are stronger with Democrats than Republicans, but he also does well among independents in these areas. However, more than half of liberals and Democrats said that Clinton does not share their moral values. Americans who have heard, read, or seen the Starr Report give Clinton a lower favorable rating and are less likely than those who have not heard about the Starr Report to think that Clinton has the honesty and integrity needed to be president and to think that Clinton shares their moral values.

Opinions of Congress' handling of the charges against Clinton
     Regardless of opinions toward Clinton, Americans are nearly divided over whether Clinton will get fair treatment from Congress. Forty-two percent of Americans believe Congress will consider the charges against the President outlined in the Starr Report in a fair and balanced manner. However, 50% believe Congress will act in a partisan political manner when considering the charges. Even one-third of Republicans and 40% of conservatives believe partisanship will enter into Clinton's treatment. Moreover, half of Americans believe Kenneth Starr's inclusion of explicit sexual details of Clinton's relationship with Lewinsky were designed to embarrass and weaken the president rather than strengthen his legal case. Twenty-eight percent believe the details were included to strengthen the legal case and 16% volunteered that both motives were involved. Following the trend seen throughout this survey, Republicans (52%) and conservatives (44%) are more likely to believe Starr included sexual details to strengthen his case.

Issue's importance to the nation and affect on Clinton's job performance
     While most Americans prefer a Congressional reprimand against Clinton rather than impeachment, slightly over half of Americans believe that this issue is of great or some importance to the nation. As the events have unfolded, this perception has gradually increased. In late January, just 47% called this issue important to the nation (26% of great importance). By mid-August when Clinton addressed the nation, the number had risen to 51% (26% still saying it is of great importance). Today, 54% believe this issue is important to the nation, with 35% saying it is of great importance. With the possibility of impeachment hearings looming in the near future, Americans may not consider Clinton's actions to be a matter of public concern, but may realize that the consequences of the controversy could hurt the country.
     Americans who have heard about the Starr Report are more likely to consider this issue important to the nation than those who have not (59% to 39%). Older Americans, Republicans and conservatives are also more likely to feel this way.
     Americans are also more likely to believe the controversy surrounding Clinton has interfered with his ability to effectively do his job as president than they were before the release of the Starr Report. Sixty-six percent of Americans now hold this view, compared to 51% one month ago and just 34% who believed the Lewinsky allegations would diminish Clinton's ability to lead in late January. High proportions of Americans of all parties and ideologies believe the controversy has interfered with Clinton's job performance, with approximately 7 out of 10 liberals, moderates, conservatives, independents and Republicans giving this response and nearly 6 out of 10 Democrats.

How the Poll Was Conducted
     The Times Poll contacted 968 adults nationwide, by telephone September 13. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the nation. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and non-listed numbers could be contacted. The entire sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education, and region. The margin of sampling error for the entire sample is plus or minus four percentage points. For certain subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.