Poll Analysis: Battleground States: Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan Remain a Toss-up
Times Poll Assoc. Director
With as many as 18 states up for grabs in this tight presidential race, each of these states -- and particularly larger ones such as Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania -- will be critical in giving either candidate enough electoral college votes to push him over the 270 necessary to guarantee victory.
Gore leads Bush by four points in Michigan, but Bush leads Gore by four points in Florida. In Pennsylvania, Bush squeaks by with just two percentage points. All of these leads fall within the polls margin of error. In other words, voters in these states could still swing in either direction, not the news either campaign wants to hear a week before a very close election.
Florida
The Horserace
According to the latest Los Angeles Times poll, conducted from Oct. 27th through 29th, Bush leads Gore by four percentage points among likely voters:
48% plan to vote for Bush
44% say they will vote for Gore
Ralph Nader, the Green Party candidate, received just 2% of the vote, while Pat Buchanan, the Reform Party candidate, got less than half a percent of the likely vote. Six percent of likely voters said they were still undecided at the time of the poll, enough to sway the vote to Gores camp should this group vote Democratic next week.
As the Times Poll has seen nationally, Bush has not only shored up the Republican vote (nine out of 10 Republicans plan to vote for him), but he has also swung the much sought-after independent vote, leading Gore by 10 percentage points with this group (45% to Gores 35%). He has also managed to convince more than one in 10 Democrats (12%) that he is their preferred candidate.
At the same time, Gore has secured the moderate vote in Florida, with 55% of this group saying they will vote for him, and 40% saying that they will vote for Bush. Additionally, Gore gets similar numbers of self-identified conservatives (16%) saying they will vote for him as Bush gets self-identified liberals (14%).
In Florida, like much of the nation, there is a wide gender gap, with women supporting Gore, and men supporting Bush: 51% of women plan to vote for Gore (42% Bush)
55% of men plan to vote for Bush (34% Gore)
Gore also fares better with unmarried voters, while Bush remains the choice of married voters, though again, given the gender gap, he is stronger with married men (57% to Gores 33%) than with married women (51% to Gores 48%).
Senior citizens (those 65 and older), who make up 30% of the likely voter population in Florida, overwhelmingly support Gore (52% to Bushs 38%). Other age groups favor Bush:
Among 18-44 year-olds, 54% plan to vote for Bush, 36% for Gore
Among those 45 to 64, 51% plan to vote for Bush, 42% for Gore
Handling the Issues
One problem Gore faces in Florida is that voters are not crediting him for the strong economy. Among the 58% of likely voters who say the country is heading in the right direction, three in 10 still plan to vote for Bush (60% plan to vote for Gore). In contrast, among the 31% who say the country is heading in the wrong direction, just 12% plan to vote for Gore (80% for Bush).
Additionally, equal numbers of likely voters say that each candidate could do a better job keeping the economy prosperous. Likely voters are also split on who could do a better job improving education, with 44% saying both Bush and Gore would do a better job.
The "honesty issue" is also causing Gore trouble in Florida, where voters give Bush a 9% lead in believing he is the one with the honesty and integrity to be president over Gore.
However, more than four out of 10 likely voters (41%) do not think that Bush has the experience or intelligence to be president. Even one in 10 Republicans feels this way, while 70% of Democrats concur.
Gore, on the other hand, has proven himself in voters eyes in this arena; just 26% say he does not have the experience or intelligence to be president (72% say he does). More than nine out of 10 (94%) Democrats believe him to have the experience and intelligence to be president, and half of Republicans believe so as well.
Additionally, a third of likely voters in Florida say they do not have confidence that Bush could handle an international crisis wisely (66% say they have confidence that Bush could handle such a crisis). Twenty-eight percent of independents feel this way, and a full quarter of men - Bushs stronghold - say they do not have confidence in Bush in this area.
In contrast, 28% of likely voters do not have confidence in Gore to handle an international crisis (71% do have confidence). Again, however, the differences in these numbers - five percentage points - are within the polls margin of error.
Michigan
The Horserace
In Michigan, another battleground state, Gore leads Bush by four percentage points among likely voters:
48% plan to vote for Gore
44% say they will vote for Bush
Nader received 3% of the vote, while Buchanan received less than half a percent of the likely vote. Five percent of likely voters said they did not know for whom they would vote at the time the poll was conducted.
Mirroring the national trend, Bush does overwhelmingly well with his own party in Michigan, where more than nine out of 10 (95%) plan to vote for him. Gore, who has been weaker in shoring up the Democratic vote on a national level, is doing equally as well with Democrats, 93% of whom plan to vote for him next Tuesday. Independents in Michigan are divided in their support, with 45% saying they will vote for Bush, and 44% saying Gore is their choice.
Gore also swings self-identified moderates to his camp, widening his lead to nearly 20 points with this group (54% plan to vote for him, 37% plan to vote for Bush). In a reversal of national figures, which show Bush faring better among self-identified liberals than Gore does with self-identified conservatives, in Michigan, 18% of conservatives plan to vote for Gore, while just 8% of liberals say they will vote for Bush.
As the Times Poll has found nationally, a gender gap also exists in Michigan, though to a far lesser extent than in other states, including California and Florida.
55% of women plan to vote for Gore (42% Bush)
48% of men plan to vote for Bush (40% Gore)
Among union households (a whopping 37% in Michigan), Gore beats Bush by nearly two to one:
61% of union household members plan to vote for Gore (33% Bush)
51% of non-union household members say they will vote fore Bush (41% for Gore)
Handling the Issues
In Michigan, likely voters believe Gore would do a better job of handling education (48% to Bushs 40%) as well as keeping our economy prosperous (50% to Bushs 36%).
However, likely voters in this state are more divided in who they believe has the honesty and integrity to be president, with 39% saying Bush does, and 38% saying Gore does. Independent voters, who are evenly split in their presidential preference in this state, overwhelmingly choose Bush over Gore (44% to 27%) on the honesty issue.
At the same time, as in Florida, nearly four in 10 (38%) likely voters in Michigan do not think that Bush has the experience or intelligence to be president. A full third of independents feel this way. In fact, a bare majority (53%) of likely voters do believe that Bush has the intelligence and experience to serve as president.
In contrast, three-quarters of likely voters say that Gore has the intelligence and experience to be president (21% disagree). More than half of all Republicans (53%) believe Gore has the experience and intelligence for the job, as well as 79% of independents.
Additionally, while 80% of likely voters have confidence in Gore to handle an international crisis wisely, less than two-thirds (64%) have confidence in Bush. More strikingly, a full third of likely voters in Michigan do not have confidence in Bush to handle international crises (just 19% do not have confidence in Gore).
Pennsylvania
The Horserace
Pennsylvania is the most divided of the states the Times Poll surveyed, with Bush maintaining a two-point edge over Gore among likely voters:
47% plan to vote for Bush
45% say they will vote for Gore
Nader received 2% of the vote, while Buchanan once got less than half a percent of the likely vote. Four percent of likely voters were undecided at the time of the poll.
Both leading candidates get 88% of their own parties, with 11% of Democrats jumping ship to the Bush camp (just 5% of Republicans say they will vote for Gore). More striking is that Bush is getting a quarter of the self-identified liberal vote and Gore is getting 20% of self-identified conservatives. Moderates fall into the Gore camp (51% to Bushs 39%), but at the same time, independents in this state swing toward Bush (53% to Gores 33%).
Bushs lead among men is by eight points (50% to Gores 42%) while Gores lead among women is by five points (49% to Bushs 44%). A more conspicuous gap exists among married and unmarried likely voters, where Bush leads Gore by eight points among married voters, but Gore leads Bush by more than 20 points among unmarried voters.
Like Michigan, Pennsylvania has a large union household population (31%), and as in Michigan, this group overwhelmingly leans to Gore:
57% of union households will vote for Gore (33% Bush)
53% of non-union households will vote for Bush (40% Gore)
Handling the Issues
As in Florida, honesty is once again an "issue" for Gore:
48% of likely voters say Bush has the honesty and integrity to be president
39% of likely voters believe Gore has the honesty and integrity for the job
At the same time, Pennsylvania likely voters say Gore is the candidate who will keep the economy prosperous over Bush (49% to 40%). Independent voters slightly favor Bush on this issue (44% to Gores 40%), but both men and women believe Gore would do better on the economy, though by only a hair among men:
45% of male likely voters in Pennsylvania say Gore would keep the economy prosperous (42% Bush)
53% of women voters say Gore would do a better job (39% say Bush)
Pennsylvania likely voters are more torn on whom they see handling education better, with 45% saying Gore would do a better job and 43% saying Bush. On this issue, independent voters swing toward Bush (50% to Gores 38%), and men say Bush would do a better job, while women overwhelmingly feel that Gore would.
More likely voters in Pennsylvania have confidence in Gore to handle an international crisis wisely (71% to Bushs 63%). More striking is that while 48% of Republicans have confidence in Gore (46% do not), just 33% of Democrats have confidence in Bush (62% do not).
Similarly, likely voters in Pennsylvania give Gore a 17-point lead over Bush in believing him to have the intelligence and experience to be president.
In short, with just a week to go to the election, voters in these fiercely contested states are not giving much comfort to either candidate. At the same time, they are not giving either candidate reason to believe that he will lose. Voters in these three states just might decide the election, but if they do, they will not assure us of their decision until the polls close on election day.
How the Poll Was Conducted
The Times Poll conducted interviews in three of the states that are considered the battleground states in this presidential election - Michigan, Pennsylvania and Florida - by telephone Friday through Sunday.
Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in each state. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and non-listed numbers could be contacted. The entire sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education, and region. The margin of sampling error for likely voters is plus or minus 5 percentage points. For certain subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.
Gore leads Bush by four points in Michigan, but Bush leads Gore by four points in Florida. In Pennsylvania, Bush squeaks by with just two percentage points. All of these leads fall within the polls margin of error. In other words, voters in these states could still swing in either direction, not the news either campaign wants to hear a week before a very close election.
The Horserace
According to the latest Los Angeles Times poll, conducted from Oct. 27th through 29th, Bush leads Gore by four percentage points among likely voters:
48% plan to vote for Bush
44% say they will vote for Gore
Ralph Nader, the Green Party candidate, received just 2% of the vote, while Pat Buchanan, the Reform Party candidate, got less than half a percent of the likely vote. Six percent of likely voters said they were still undecided at the time of the poll, enough to sway the vote to Gores camp should this group vote Democratic next week.
As the Times Poll has seen nationally, Bush has not only shored up the Republican vote (nine out of 10 Republicans plan to vote for him), but he has also swung the much sought-after independent vote, leading Gore by 10 percentage points with this group (45% to Gores 35%). He has also managed to convince more than one in 10 Democrats (12%) that he is their preferred candidate.
At the same time, Gore has secured the moderate vote in Florida, with 55% of this group saying they will vote for him, and 40% saying that they will vote for Bush. Additionally, Gore gets similar numbers of self-identified conservatives (16%) saying they will vote for him as Bush gets self-identified liberals (14%).
In Florida, like much of the nation, there is a wide gender gap, with women supporting Gore, and men supporting Bush: 51% of women plan to vote for Gore (42% Bush)
55% of men plan to vote for Bush (34% Gore)
Gore also fares better with unmarried voters, while Bush remains the choice of married voters, though again, given the gender gap, he is stronger with married men (57% to Gores 33%) than with married women (51% to Gores 48%).
Senior citizens (those 65 and older), who make up 30% of the likely voter population in Florida, overwhelmingly support Gore (52% to Bushs 38%). Other age groups favor Bush:
Among 18-44 year-olds, 54% plan to vote for Bush, 36% for Gore
Among those 45 to 64, 51% plan to vote for Bush, 42% for Gore
Handling the Issues
One problem Gore faces in Florida is that voters are not crediting him for the strong economy. Among the 58% of likely voters who say the country is heading in the right direction, three in 10 still plan to vote for Bush (60% plan to vote for Gore). In contrast, among the 31% who say the country is heading in the wrong direction, just 12% plan to vote for Gore (80% for Bush).
Additionally, equal numbers of likely voters say that each candidate could do a better job keeping the economy prosperous. Likely voters are also split on who could do a better job improving education, with 44% saying both Bush and Gore would do a better job.
The "honesty issue" is also causing Gore trouble in Florida, where voters give Bush a 9% lead in believing he is the one with the honesty and integrity to be president over Gore.
However, more than four out of 10 likely voters (41%) do not think that Bush has the experience or intelligence to be president. Even one in 10 Republicans feels this way, while 70% of Democrats concur.
Gore, on the other hand, has proven himself in voters eyes in this arena; just 26% say he does not have the experience or intelligence to be president (72% say he does). More than nine out of 10 (94%) Democrats believe him to have the experience and intelligence to be president, and half of Republicans believe so as well.
Additionally, a third of likely voters in Florida say they do not have confidence that Bush could handle an international crisis wisely (66% say they have confidence that Bush could handle such a crisis). Twenty-eight percent of independents feel this way, and a full quarter of men - Bushs stronghold - say they do not have confidence in Bush in this area.
In contrast, 28% of likely voters do not have confidence in Gore to handle an international crisis (71% do have confidence). Again, however, the differences in these numbers - five percentage points - are within the polls margin of error.
The Horserace
In Michigan, another battleground state, Gore leads Bush by four percentage points among likely voters:
48% plan to vote for Gore
44% say they will vote for Bush
Nader received 3% of the vote, while Buchanan received less than half a percent of the likely vote. Five percent of likely voters said they did not know for whom they would vote at the time the poll was conducted.
Mirroring the national trend, Bush does overwhelmingly well with his own party in Michigan, where more than nine out of 10 (95%) plan to vote for him. Gore, who has been weaker in shoring up the Democratic vote on a national level, is doing equally as well with Democrats, 93% of whom plan to vote for him next Tuesday. Independents in Michigan are divided in their support, with 45% saying they will vote for Bush, and 44% saying Gore is their choice.
Gore also swings self-identified moderates to his camp, widening his lead to nearly 20 points with this group (54% plan to vote for him, 37% plan to vote for Bush). In a reversal of national figures, which show Bush faring better among self-identified liberals than Gore does with self-identified conservatives, in Michigan, 18% of conservatives plan to vote for Gore, while just 8% of liberals say they will vote for Bush.
As the Times Poll has found nationally, a gender gap also exists in Michigan, though to a far lesser extent than in other states, including California and Florida.
55% of women plan to vote for Gore (42% Bush)
48% of men plan to vote for Bush (40% Gore)
Among union households (a whopping 37% in Michigan), Gore beats Bush by nearly two to one:
61% of union household members plan to vote for Gore (33% Bush)
51% of non-union household members say they will vote fore Bush (41% for Gore)
Handling the Issues
In Michigan, likely voters believe Gore would do a better job of handling education (48% to Bushs 40%) as well as keeping our economy prosperous (50% to Bushs 36%).
However, likely voters in this state are more divided in who they believe has the honesty and integrity to be president, with 39% saying Bush does, and 38% saying Gore does. Independent voters, who are evenly split in their presidential preference in this state, overwhelmingly choose Bush over Gore (44% to 27%) on the honesty issue.
At the same time, as in Florida, nearly four in 10 (38%) likely voters in Michigan do not think that Bush has the experience or intelligence to be president. A full third of independents feel this way. In fact, a bare majority (53%) of likely voters do believe that Bush has the intelligence and experience to serve as president.
In contrast, three-quarters of likely voters say that Gore has the intelligence and experience to be president (21% disagree). More than half of all Republicans (53%) believe Gore has the experience and intelligence for the job, as well as 79% of independents.
Additionally, while 80% of likely voters have confidence in Gore to handle an international crisis wisely, less than two-thirds (64%) have confidence in Bush. More strikingly, a full third of likely voters in Michigan do not have confidence in Bush to handle international crises (just 19% do not have confidence in Gore).
The Horserace
Pennsylvania is the most divided of the states the Times Poll surveyed, with Bush maintaining a two-point edge over Gore among likely voters:
47% plan to vote for Bush
45% say they will vote for Gore
Nader received 2% of the vote, while Buchanan once got less than half a percent of the likely vote. Four percent of likely voters were undecided at the time of the poll.
Both leading candidates get 88% of their own parties, with 11% of Democrats jumping ship to the Bush camp (just 5% of Republicans say they will vote for Gore). More striking is that Bush is getting a quarter of the self-identified liberal vote and Gore is getting 20% of self-identified conservatives. Moderates fall into the Gore camp (51% to Bushs 39%), but at the same time, independents in this state swing toward Bush (53% to Gores 33%).
Bushs lead among men is by eight points (50% to Gores 42%) while Gores lead among women is by five points (49% to Bushs 44%). A more conspicuous gap exists among married and unmarried likely voters, where Bush leads Gore by eight points among married voters, but Gore leads Bush by more than 20 points among unmarried voters.
Like Michigan, Pennsylvania has a large union household population (31%), and as in Michigan, this group overwhelmingly leans to Gore:
57% of union households will vote for Gore (33% Bush)
53% of non-union households will vote for Bush (40% Gore)
Handling the Issues
As in Florida, honesty is once again an "issue" for Gore:
48% of likely voters say Bush has the honesty and integrity to be president
39% of likely voters believe Gore has the honesty and integrity for the job
At the same time, Pennsylvania likely voters say Gore is the candidate who will keep the economy prosperous over Bush (49% to 40%). Independent voters slightly favor Bush on this issue (44% to Gores 40%), but both men and women believe Gore would do better on the economy, though by only a hair among men:
45% of male likely voters in Pennsylvania say Gore would keep the economy prosperous (42% Bush)
53% of women voters say Gore would do a better job (39% say Bush)
Pennsylvania likely voters are more torn on whom they see handling education better, with 45% saying Gore would do a better job and 43% saying Bush. On this issue, independent voters swing toward Bush (50% to Gores 38%), and men say Bush would do a better job, while women overwhelmingly feel that Gore would.
More likely voters in Pennsylvania have confidence in Gore to handle an international crisis wisely (71% to Bushs 63%). More striking is that while 48% of Republicans have confidence in Gore (46% do not), just 33% of Democrats have confidence in Bush (62% do not).
Similarly, likely voters in Pennsylvania give Gore a 17-point lead over Bush in believing him to have the intelligence and experience to be president.
In short, with just a week to go to the election, voters in these fiercely contested states are not giving much comfort to either candidate. At the same time, they are not giving either candidate reason to believe that he will lose. Voters in these three states just might decide the election, but if they do, they will not assure us of their decision until the polls close on election day.
The Times Poll conducted interviews in three of the states that are considered the battleground states in this presidential election - Michigan, Pennsylvania and Florida - by telephone Friday through Sunday.
| State | Registered Voters | Likely Voters |
| Michigan | 640 | 401 |
| Pennsylvania | 647 | 420 |
| Florida | 575 | 401 |
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