California drought will only get worse, experts say

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Brandon Arthur, 10, crawls out of the gooey muddy tailings left by his father Steve Arthur’s water well drill site in Terra Bella. (Bob Chamberlin / Los Angeles Times)

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Sunrise illuminates previous signs of life amid the dry, steep banks due to drought conditions at Lake Shasta. (Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Times)

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Puddles of water are all that remain in some areas of San Gabriel River’s West Fork in the Angeles National Forest. (Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Times)

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Pastel colors at dawn reveal a receding Lake Cachuma in Santa Barbara County. (Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Times)

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Dusk falls as a lone boater heads out on Lake Shasta near the Lake Shasta Dam. Amid serious drought conditions, Lake Shasta is at only 37% of capacity and is likely to go lower. (Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Times)

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The Bridge Bay Marina at Lake Shasta reveals signs of serious drought conditions. (Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Times)

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An egret searches for food in a nearly dry canal near Red Bluff in Northern California. (Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Times)

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A passing boat is dwarfed by the steep, barren banks of Lake Oroville in Northern California, whose water level has fallen 160 feet. (Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Times)

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Pier pilings reach high out of the water at dusk amid extremely low water levels at Castaic Lake Recreation Area. (Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Times)

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Owner Elaine Newton walks with her daughter Ashleigh Newton along the family-owned Rancheria Marina docks and boat ramps that are now idle, at Huntington Lake due to historically low water levels caused by the drought. (Mark Boster / Los Angeles Times)

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Chalked initials and the date mark the exposed wall of one of the dams revealed as the water level fell amid the continuing drought at Huntington Lake in Fresno County. (Mark Boster / Los Angeles Times)

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The Bridge Bay Marina at Lake Shasta reveals signs of serious drought conditions June 22. (Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Times)

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A nearly-empty boat house and dock are dwarfed by land at the drought-stricken Lake Isabella on July 12. (Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Times)

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A couple strolls with their dog along a dusty shoreline that is usually under water at Huntington Lake on July 10. Water is at the lowest level that many in the tiny High Sierra community in Fresno County can remember. (Mark Boster / Los Angeles Times)

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The water level at Huntington Lake is at the lowest that many in the tiny High Sierra community in Fresno County can remember. Most of the boat docks around the lake are now high and very dry. (Mark Boster / Los Angeles Times)

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Low water at Huntington Lake during the drought leaves a bridge of land to the island. Kayaking to the island is usually part of a summer visit. (Diana Marcum / Los Angeles Times)

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An observation deck over the lake is left high and dry as the water level has dropped 50 percent in Huntington Lake this summer. (Diana Marcum / Los Angeles Times)

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Severe drought conditions are evident as hundreds of house boats are dwarfed by steep banks that show the water level down 160 feet from the high water mark at Bidwell Canyon Marina on Lake Oroville on June 21. (Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Times)

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Looking toward the San Gabriel River from East Fork Road north of Azuza in February, the San Gabriel reservoir can be seen in the far distance where it has receded more than a mile. (Don Bartletti / Los Angeles Times)

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Secret Service agents look over a dry farm field as President Barack Obama speaks to media about the drought situation in California in February. (Wally Skalij / Los Angeles Times)

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A boat launch at Folsom Lake sits along the banks of the drought-ridden lake in February. (Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times)

By Veronica Rocha

July 19, 2014 8:12 AM PT

California is probably headed into a deeper drought this summer, making it harder to escape in the future, an expert says.

With more than 80% of the state in an extreme drought, dry conditions will probably continue and won’t improve much in the next few months, said climatologist Brian Fuchs of the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska.

The prolonged statewide drought means it will be “harder to break the cycle,” much like some thirsty regions in Oklahoma and the entire state of Texas, which have been struggling with drought since 2010, he said.

A U.S. Drought Monitor map released Thursday showed 81% of California in the category of extreme drought or worse, up from 78%. Three months ago, it was 68%.

Drought conditions in parts of Riverside, San Bernardino and San Diego counties also have worsened.

The maps created by Fuchs and 10 other climatologists are based on 50 indicators, including weather patterns, soil conditions and water activity.

“The impacts really tell the story,” he said.

The mapping project came about in 1999, when drought crippled Washington, D.C., and policy makers wanted to know its effect on the region. They funded an experiment requiring scientists from the center and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to work on a weekly detailed map, Fuchs said.

Soon enough, the maps became a vital part of determining the severity of a drought in a certain region. Months later, the U.S. Drought Monitor, which is produced by the center, NOAA and the U.S. Department of Agricultural, was established.

The maps’ authors weigh drought conditions in the U.S. from the low point of abnormally dry (D1) to exceptional drought (D4), the highest intensity.

With a great portion of California already in extreme drought, Fuchs said some have asked if it is possible to break through the highest level, an event that occurs once in 50 years.

A drought beyond that would have to be an event that happens once every 200 to 300 years, he said.

“It would be a significant event,” Fuchs said.

For breaking news in Los Angeles and throughout California, follow @VeronicaRochaLA. She can be reached at veronica.rocha@latimes.com.