Live analysis of California primary results

This has been a terrific conversation, and an interesting evening to say the least.

Okay, everyone, we'll pop in here later if anything super exciting happens. It's going to be a long night (and possibly few days) as we wait on the results in close congressional contests. I'll share some links where people can track our coverage. The easiest way, of course, is to sign up for the Essential Politics newsletter. Do that here: latimes.com/essentialpoliticsemail

And to Christina's point: How much will we see Cox's campaign as arm-in-arm with the initiative to repeal the gas tax? Cox may want to focus on that instead of, for example, the GOP opposition to the sanctuary law. Likely the gas tax repeal has support in Democratic homes, too.

“I’m asking you to get behind Gavin Newsom,” Villaraigosa said, surrounded by his family. “I’m asking you to stand up and pressure every one of us – Democrat and Republican alike – pressure every one of us to stand up for you, to fight for you, not just for ourselves, but for all of us for an American and a California where every one of are growing together.”

A question we'll want to explore in coming days is how much of his own money does Cox spend, or do GOP donors get behind him

For history: Our headline will be "It's Newsom vs. Cox in November as Villaraigosa tumbles in governor's race"

Villaraigosa just endorsed Newsom, thanks both him and Cox for running in the governors race

Thanks Mark, it's been a pleasure

I'm going to bail on you good folks. There's a Nigerian prince who wants to make me a millionaire, but I have to hurry and respond to his email. If I fail to cash out, I'll be back bright and early tmrw with more analysis at latimes.com and/or on Twitter @markzbarabak. C ya!.z

And he'll get the help of some business and construction groups that see the gas tax money as key to repairing California roads and highways. Republicans think it's a winning hand; we'll see soon what happens... the repeal initiative could qualify for the November ballot any day.

What kind of odds you give it? Remember, Jerry's tax hike proposal was looking poorly and then he went out and turned it around. Havent been following closely, so not sure how much of a "pro" campaign has been waged for the gas hike. Whatever it's been, sure Brown will ramp it up in the fall. This is, as much as he hates the word, a legacy thing.

Good question, and I think there will be some serious Monday morning quarterbacking about the recall. Republicans actually succeeded in qualifying the recall for an earlier election -- one that would have taken place before the gas tax kicked in -- but Dems maneuvered to push the recall election back to June 5... after the unpopular tax went into effect.

Hey, Mr. Myers, is there a job somewhere in Sacramento where Demos will stash Josh Newman? Kind of a took-one-for-the-team sinecure?

Indeed, it seems Newman is done, and former Assemblywoman Ling Ling Chang will replace him. http://161.35.110.226/politics/la-pol-ca-josh-newman-recall-20180605-story.html

Who are right nearby

Especially if the fundraiser involves his two favorite California members of Congress, Kevin McCarthy and Devin Nunes

A Central Valley drop-by in a safe CD would not seem out of the question, as Sarah suggests.

I would associate myself with the remarks from the gentleman from Sacramento. Trump is all about winning and, let's be charitable, John Cox is an exceeding longshot.

I imagine he'd be fine showing up in the Central Valley. He campaigned there during the 2016 election and especially for Valadao in CA21 I can't imagine it hurting

Boy, it's hard to see a full court Trump working well for California Republicans. My hunch is that Trump's actions now are less about what helps Cox and more what helps congressional GOP candidates in the state. And if they face a Dem, Trump could be a real challenge in those swing seats.

With crushing odds favoring Gavin Newsom. Question: Does Trump come out to campaign for Cox, or keep a Tweetly distance?

The traditional Democrat versus Republican race for governor now looks like a lock for November.

And the AP has called the second spot in the governor's race for Cox.

Once more from our friend, David Wasserman of the Cook Report, a projection that De Leon will advance to face Dianne Feinstein in the US Senate race in November. Meaning GOP locked out of that contest.

Republican John Cox has 26% of the vote in the governors race. Those three tweets by President Trump endorsing him went a long way

Newman ouster, if holds, shows power of the gas tax repeal. Gov Brown and Demos have their work cut out in the fall if it's going to stick.

AP just called the governor's race for John Cox

Was an election many years back when a follower of conspiracy theorist Lyndon Larouche was only guy on the ballot with a bunch of ethnic-sounding names, in Illinois, if memory serves, and shocked everyone by finishing first. He went on to lose the general election but still

I'm about to edit our story about the recall election of state Sen. Josh Newman. Last I looked he was heading toward being removed from office.

Which should not be underestimated

And he was the first candidate with an Anglo sounding name if you looked at an alphabetical list of the Republican candidates

Agreed. If that holds, think goes back to the whole discussion of party labels. James Bradley has that R beside his name and he's not the neo-Nazi dude who was also running. So if you're an R who can't stand Feinstein and probably don't know who De Leon is but don't want to vote for him either...

I'm still a bit surprised that De Leon and James Bradley are tied at 10% in the Senate race with 20% of precincts reporting

So anything unexpected or shocking out there? DiFi no surprise. Gavin no surprise. Cox not a huge surprise...

Well played.

But you need a tambourine man to play a song for me

Or to quote the eminent political scientist Bob Dylan, you don't need a weatherman to know which way the winds blows.

"“It looks like voters are going to have a real choice this November -- between a governor who is going to stand up to Donald Trump and a foot soldier in Trump's war on California." That's Gavin Newsom tonight. As our friend, the NY Times' Adam Nagourney notes, not a lot of subtly there or much question about the campaign Newsom will run between now and November.

Like a paper cup. Murphy!

Over on Twitter, GOP strategist Mike Murphy weighs in with this: "Only CA choice to stop Newsom was Villagarosa; V far better on school reform and single payer. So I voted for him, Dem and all. But it’s all moot now. We’ll run Cox and he’ll get crushed like a paper cup. It’s CA Jake."

Noted: Newsom digs at Jeff Sessions, throwing out some red meat for liberals who don't like Trump's attorney general, especially for his actions against California immigration and drug policies

From the ya-can't-make-it-up files, Newsom takes the stage to Tupac's California Love

I think the Trump endorsement was extremely important. He has off-the-charts approval among Republicans. Cox became the anointed one.

PLUS! Their messages are very similar.

And several Republicans I interviewed over the last few days cited the endorsement as a reason for backing Cox.

I've seen in general that GOP voters seem to be more forgiving of Trump of late

That applies even to "independents" or those "I don't vote party, I vote for the man/woman" voters. Scratch not too far below the surface and you find a partisan D or R. That, and President Trump's endorsement, worked to Cox's tremendous advantage.

While it's fashionable to pooh poor parties--and there's all that blah blah about Republicans slipping behind independents in California, party labels are still the single best predictor of voting behavior. They telegraph how an individual will cast a ballot far better than age, income, gender, education, sexual orientation or whether someone lives in a big city, the suburbs or the countryside.

Calling out all of my fellow chatters: How consequential do we think the tweets were from President Trump that endorsed Cox?

If I may reiterate here, if, in fact, Republican John Cox finishes second in the race for California governor, that again reinforces the importance of party labels.

Several Democrats are likely counting on that holding true tonight

They always come in much later; ballots arriving by close of business Friday will be counted so long as they're postmarked Tuesday. So Demo turnout will almost certainly increase from what we're seeing tonight.

Yea, Republicans historically vote early, Democrats vote day of

Although it should be noted re early turnout Demos always seem to "under-perform" in initial returns. Those numbers will surge considerably once places like Alameda and LA county report.

Grrrr.

I will withhold my grumble to the term in that one case only

If I may, a correction to earlier (way, way earlier) re the Jungle Primary, with thanks to eagle-eyed reader Lunna Lopes. If a candidate for California superintendent of instruction wins 50%+1 they automatically elected to what is officially a nonpartisan office. That office is the one exception to the top-two rules. Record corrected.

I was editing the statewide races story, which to me suggests strong Republican turnout. There are several GOP candidates who are looking more likely for second place than we thought.

There's a solid chance that the next Speaker of the House will be a Californian

Both Nancy Pelosi and Kevin McCarthy got through to November, just in case any one was holding their breath.

But you probably know that already....

Trump won!

Sorry I disappeared, have to juggle print deadlines while using all this new-fangled technology.

Ha!

Agreed. But after 2016, the words "can't" "not" "won't" "never" and "ever" have been forever banished from my vocabulary.

Yeah, but look at the early numbers for all major Dems in the governor's race (abt 56%) and for the top GOP candidates (abt 37%). It's going to be awfully tough when only two names are on the November ballot.

But, hey, who knows...

It's been more than 20 years since a Republican has been elected governor in a conventional race. That is to say one not involving Arnold Schwarzenegger running in once-in-a-lifetime recall. California is an exceedingly Democratic state and there's not a whole lot of reason to believe that will change between now and November.

Villaraigosa just told his election party, "Tonight's going to be a long night." He's calling for more voting time, given the voter list errors in LA.

So no certainties in life or politics, right? But if these numbers hold and John Cox finishes second, setting up a D vs R November election, it looks pretty darn likely Gavin Newsom will be the next governor of California.

And let's be honest, he's raised an insane amount of money

Say this about him: None of that coy nonsense. He was in it early and openly.

And actively running, Mark, since 2015 when he decided not to run for the Senate seat vacated by Barbara Boxer.

He's been eyeing the job since 2009, when he waged a futile bid against Jerry Brown. The first candidate to announce and the leader in every poll leading up to Election Day.

Our friends at the AP call Gavin Newsom the first-place finisher in gubernatorial race. Another non-surprise.

Polling by the Davis campaign showed a lot of people assume lieutenant governor meant, in effect, deputy governor, giving the office-holder valuable on-the-job training. Like Sarah heard today, a lot of people assume the office holds a lot more power than it does.

That was also an election with modified primary rules. Ah, I remember 1998 like it was 20 years ago.

Gray Davis -- of all &nbspfolks -- elevated the stature of the Lt. Gov office, using it to vault to election in 1998. Hard to remember, but he squeezed past a pair of much better-funded opponents on the strength of the office.

I had a few voters tell me today that they backed Newsom because he was Lt. Gov.

News: AP has called Gavin Newsom as the top vote-getter in the race for governor.

One to watch: the race for lieutenant governor. No, the job doesn't have many official duties. But politicians see it as high-profile (and hey, you're acting governor when the governor is out of state). Right now, there's a tight battle for second place between Democrat Ed Hernandez and Republican Cole Harris. If Hernandez prevails, we could have our first same-party race for a statewide office. The leading vote getter right now is another Democrat, Eleni Kounalakis.

John's mention of Prop 70 is the biggest one for me. Here's our story: http://161.35.110.226/politics/la-pol-ca-propositions-20180605-story.html

Any one seeing surprises in the results so far?

Another down-ticket race that looks interesting in early returns: state superintendent of public instruction. In 2014, Marshall Tuck lost to Tom Torlakson, a battle of big money from school reform advocates (who backed Tuck) and teachers unions (who backed Torlakson). Torlakson won. Now, with Torlakson termed out, Tuck is running again... this time against Assemblyman Tony Thurmond, backed by the unions. It's close right now, but Tuck is winning.

Especially when polls have already closed

Also, not sure what the argument would be if folks aren't being turned away from voting. But I'm not an election lawyer...

It's unclear exactly how much latitude locals have to do those kinds of things. But Friday? That seems very unlikely.

Hey, it wouldn't be election day without some screw-ups somewhere!

And should be noted no one was turned away from voting. Folks were told they could cast provisional ballots, which will be tallied once they're verified.

My hot take is chances of that happening are somewhere between slim and none.

Speaking of Villaraigosa, with snafu in LA County balloting--more than 118K voter &nbspnames were missing from the rolls at polling places--he asking to keep balloting going until Friday.

Ooof. Will be interesting watching how he does in counties that are not Los Angeles

Villaraigosa is in sixth place in Humboldt County by the way

The race for second place has been surprisingly contentious, with two UC-Irvine law professors battling it out

She was the only Republican on the ballot. It was not one of the districts where Democrats had to worry about being locked out

She represents Irvine area in Orange County, and that's another crowded field of candidates

Rep. Mimi Walters, one of the Republicans who Democrats are attempting to unseat, has earned a spot on the November ballot, AP calls.

Poizner was insurance commish from 2006-2010, ran for the GOP nomination for governor and lost and now is running as an unaffiliated "independent" to get his old job back.

Keep an eye on the state insurance commissioner's race, where Steve Poizner is in the lead. &nbspRecognize his name?

Okay, so back to California...

Or something like that.

Also, Chuck Todd started the Hotline as a fax update!

Imagine that. It's like rooting for the Yankees as a kid, then growing up to play center field.

True fact: When David was a kid, he asked his parents for a subscription to the Cook Political Report for his birthday. Cost too much, so they got him the weekly subscription. Now he's the Cook House expert.

Here, for posterity sake, is the Tweet from Mr. Wasserman: Breaking: shutout averted in #CA49. Orange &nbspSan Diego first batch votes: Harkey (R) 16,471 Levin (D) 11,189 Jacobs (D) 10,288 Applegate (D) 8,956 No one else with a chance.

Seriously impressive

And he knows all these numbers off the top of his hand. Has always been impressive to watch.

Did Wasserman say why he doesn't think there wont be a Dem shut out in Issa's old seat? He's an election prognosticator we tend to watch heavily

Went there twice, Mr. Myers. Visited the Mission San Juan Bautista, where Hitchcock's Vertigo was filmed and found a splendid Mexican restaurant in downtown Holllister.

Wow. Over at the Cook Report, David Wasserman, who has a darned good track record on these things, is already saying no Demo shutout in the Darrell Issa seat. CD 49. Not &nbsplot of returns but he out on that limb.

I actually should give a shout-out to Mark on that one, too. &nbspIt's tiny San Benito County, nestled in the area to the south of Gilroy and east of Salinas. It has a remarkable record of being right on races -- having numbers that mirror statewide totals. (Confession: I wrote about it before coming to The Times, but Mr. Barabak wrote the definitive LAT version in 2006.)

You wrote recently about a county that tends to predict statewide results, John. I'd be interested in hearing more about that.

Cheers!

One county that's going to call it an early night: Napa, which is almost 99% reported. Two reasons for that. First, it's a small county. Second, it's all mail ballots this year, one of 5 counties enacting the new vote center/mail ballot law that can be used across California in 2020. So, more time for a good glass of cabernet in Wine Country.

(A notoriously slow counter, and also the largest in the state.)

Overheard in the newsroom: "And as is typical, zero results showing for L.A. County."

In point of fact, nothing is a greater determinant--not age, gender, sexual orientation, what have you--than whether someone leans D or R. And that goes for "independents" or "I-vote-for-the-man/woman-voters" 'who claim to be nonpartisan

Some cold water on our hot takes of election returns: There's only data so far from as few as 4 counties.

Which shows the power of partisanship. It's fashionable to dismiss parties these days, but a lot of people will vote for anyone so long as they have the D or R next to their name.

and the personal wealth to self fund if she wants

Feinstein, in comparison, enters the general with $7 million in the bank

Bradley is the CFO of a small health care company. He's never run for office and he hasn't even raised $5,000 for his race

He led in some polls too, which even caught him by surprise

Among other parts of his bio... which we'll leave for another live chat! But back to the Senate race, the early numbers show second place leaning toward a Republican, James Bradley, who had no backing from the state GOP. This would be a big blow to the other prominent Democrat in the race, Kevin de León.

A progressive before progressive was cool!

Hiram Johnson, the champion of bringing California the initiative, recall and referendum!

She'll also be among the oldest people to ever serve in the U.S. Senate

Fun fact: If Feinstein wins and stays in office through 2022, she will become the longest-serving U.S. senator in California history, surpassing the 28 years Hiram Johnson served starting in 1917.

In other early election returns... take a look at how one ballot proposition, Prop. 70, is losing in (very!) early numbers. All five measures were placed on the ballot by the Legislature, and few are controversial. But Prop. 70 could allow Republicans in the Legislature a key voice in the spending of cap-and-trade cash. Yes, I wrote about how Democrats want to kill Prop. 70, even though they helped put it on the ballot http://161.35.110.226/politics/la-pol-ca-road-map-cap-trade-proposition-70-supporters-split-20180311-story.html

http://161.35.110.226/projects/la-pol-ca-california-primary-election-results-2018

With just a smidgen of precincts reporting, Feinstein now has more than double the results of her two closest competitors

If her challenger is close on her heels it will be a long summer

I'll be watching how big her margin is tonight

In other news, sun expected to rise tmrw in East, set in West...

Not a surprise

The AP has just called the race for Feinstein.

I would think so, to the extent it boosts overall GOP turnout and gives those folks a reason to come out in November who might not otherwise.

Does the gas tax repeal benefit Republicans across the state?

Got it.

Indeed, Mr Myers. But I'm thinking in terms of result vs post-election impact. No question 187 dramatically recast California politics. But Pete Wilson was well on his way to winning even without 187.

I've heard from a couple strategists that they believe the 29th Senate District recall race may be leading to higher GOP turnout there, which could make the top-two situation in the 39th Congressional District (which overlaps with Newman's turf) even more dangerous for Democrats.

There have been plenty of party efforts to goose turnout one way or the other. But none dispositive the way the '82 measure was.

Prop 187, of course, had a lingering effect, Mr. Barabak...

Ballot measures can be pretty important. But the only one I can remember making a difference is all the way back in 1982, when a gun-control measure drove conservative turnout and helped George Deukmejian squeak past Tom Bradley.

John Myers with the puns

The gas tax repeal effort is going to get its first -- wait for it -- road test in the 29th state Senate district tonight, where freshman Democratic Sen. Josh Newman faces a recall over his vote on the gas tax in Sacramento.

For the record, Republicans haven't elected a governor in more than two decades (excepting one Arnold Schwarzenegger, running in an extraordinary 2003 recall election.) That's not likely to change come November, regardless of who makes the top two. Hence the gas-tax thing.

Jumping on Mark's point about the state gas tax - it has been shown to be pretty unpopular statewide, and Republican members of Congress have contributed a good deal of money to the effort to qualify a repeal measure for November. Rep. Mimi Walters has been a major booster of that effort

I was expecting Feinstein to be called as the Senate winner in minutes

I’d just like to point out that it’s 8:18 and we still have no AP calls for the statewide offices. I had expected at least one by now.

Excitement feeds on itself. Same with apathy.

Their hope is to gin up turnout through a measure to repeal the new state gas tax. But there's nothing like a top-of-the-ticket race to gin up enthusiasm. Or at least get people to pay SOME attention.

I think they have a problem, Houston

What do you think it means for turnout if a Republican doesn't make it through in the governor's race or the senate race?

Woof!

Especially in a state where so few people are registered Republicans, it has been fascinating to watch the party not unite around a single candidate this cycle in these big races.

Didn't want to leave folks &nbsphanging...

“If you want a friend in Washington, &nbspget a dog.”

What is it Harry Truman said about loyalty and dogs?

Funny business, politics.

Allen has been frustrated by it. His supporters blocked Cox from getting the state party endorsement too

And that endorsement had to be a kick in the pants for Travis Alen. He's been running as Trump's guy in California and Cox didn't support the president in 2016. But he got the Trump endorsement anyway. (Sad face)

The interesting thing was the state party didn't manage to rally around Cox the same way

Why does it matter? Because if you're a Republican voter in California and have no one you like running for Senate and no one you like running for governor, what's the incentive to turn out? You stay home, you hurt your down-ballot Republicans, including those running for the House. That's why, as Sarah mentioned, President Trump backed John Cox

President Trump endorsed Republican John Cox and he suddenly started doing well in the polls

So what we're watching for in the governors race is whether Republicans are shut out or manage to shoehorn a candidate onto the November ballot.

*not a prediction

What are you watching there?

It seems likely Republicans are going to blocked out of the US Senate contest*

Since we've focused all this time on the congressional races, let's take a moment to talk about the gubernatorial contest, shall we, since the two are linked. This is the perfect segue since, again, the top-two comes into play.

I imagine we'll know the winner in a lot of these races tonight, but it will come down to who gets the second spot come November

I'll be impressed if it is only a few

I'm with you on getting some definitive results. But you know there will be one or two squeakers that will take awhile.

Some fun California facts: We have 40 million residents. That's more than Canada! On a map, we stretch from Maine to South Carolina. Twenty-three media markets. Like I said, we're big!

I'm really hoping it wont take that long, of course

And election officials have three weeks to count the results

Also, will be awhile before all the ballots arrive. If you postmarked your ballot today it has until the close of business Friday to be counted.

Well, we're a really, really big state. Even if we have a pretty meager turnout, which a lot of forecasters expect, we'll still have more ballots to count than 48 states tabulated in the 2016 presidential election.

Can you enlighten us on why it will take so long?

Woot! Let the tabulations begin. (Pauses. Drums fingers on table for the next two weeks...)

Speaking of which, the polls officially closed in California three minutes ago!

Even though none of the results are in yet

That's why if you check our results page right now there are a dozen races called. There is only the incumbent or they only have one challenger

Grrrrrr

And also probably grumble

So call it a jungle primary if you like. But if you do, Sarah will scowl at you!

Nope. in a true jungle primary, if a candidate &nbspwins 50% of the vote plus 1, they're the winner. Done. But under the top two the two leading finishers advance to November, regardless of their percentages

It is not

Whew, I thought you were going to call what we have in California a Jungle Primary

The idea is everyone's in there thrashing it out together, through all the vines and tangle. But there are differences between a "jungle primary" and the top-two.

Lot of talk about California's "Jungle Primary."

While we're waiting for polls to close in just a couple of moments, let's do another bit of housekeeping...

Yep. Talk that maybe the GOP will shut out of that race, which puts one on the board for Ds and means they only need another 22 seats for Big Casino.

There's some speculation that Republicans could be in trouble in the 49th District, the San Diego and Orange County district Darrell Issa is vacating

Applies to both parties.

Better paranoid than flat-footed. Or something like that.

Will be interesting to watch how close these margins actually are

And talk of the perilous top two has nominated national coverage in the past few weeks

But ya never know...

That's because they're Democrats! They always freak out!

Seriously though, Democrats are worried

Pencil it out and that &nbsp1 in 459 contests under top-two amounts to .002% of elections we've held since 2012. We'll see tonight if that percentage goes up or not and we offer no predictions. As 2016 showed, just because something seems extraordinarily improbable, it doesn't mean it can't or won't happen!

Miller at the time was considered one of the most vulnerable GOP incumbents in the country. He hung it up rather then run again in 2014. Aguilar won the seat and has been reelected ever since

The "lockout" happened in 2012 when then-Redlands Mayor Pete Aguilar finished third, 2.2% behind a Republican in the race for then-Rep. Gary Miller's Inland Empire seat

We've have 459 legislative + congressional contests since it took effect in 2012. There has been precisely one instance in which a party was shut out of a race it could/should have won. (Assuming, cuz ya never know)

So what's happened in the past under the top-two, you ask? (You didn't ask? Well here goes anyway...)

Indeed. It should be said--so i'll go ahead--the race for control of the House won't be decided tonight in Fullerton or Vista or Newport Beach. There are scores of competitive House races around the country: seven in New York and New Jersey, five in Pennsylvania alone. But, as Sarah and Christine suggest, it'll be harder for Demos if you were to take three seats right off the table here in California.

Mark smartly pointed out earlier today that Democrats could still make up for getting locked out of 1 or 2 races here by looking elsewhere on their 104-district map nationwide. But it certainly makes it harder for them to take back the House this fall.

Especially because the two seats Democrats want to win in the Central Valley are going to be really difficult in the general election. So, if the field narrows now in California, it's just going to get more difficult.

Why are national Ds and Rs so involved? Because California will be really important in the race for control of the House. Demos need to pick up 23 seats nationwide and they have their eyes on seven districts in California that Republicans won but Hillary Clinton carried in 2016. Hence their freakout over the prospect of being locked out of three of those contests.

Sen. Dianne Feinstein actually touched on that last week, saying that the top two was supposed to produce more moderate candidates, "but up to this point, it’s proven not to be the case."

Yes, the three races they remain most concerned about are in Orange County: the open seats in the 39th and 49th Districts (Ed Royce and Darrell Issa are retiring after this year) and the 48th District, where GOP incumbent Dana Rohrabacher is facing a challenger from his own party who's well-known enough that he could potentially make it through and lock Democrats out.

And like Christine said, it's resulted in all sorts of complications and three-dimensional-chess playing by the national parties.

Thank you for attempting to keep our chat jargon-free, Sarah!

Psst DCCC= House Democrats' campaign arm

Why do we have the top-two? Because voters were fed up with dysfunction in Sacramento so they passed the top-two, figuring it would weed out candidates on the fringes and force candidates to run more to the middle. The two major parties opposed it when it went on the ballot, but voters passed it anyway. The parties are still opposed, but voters seem pretty happy with it.

So in the congressional races I'm watching, Democrats have been very concerned that the two candidates making it through in some of these important races may both be Republicans. That's prompted millions of dollars in spending from Democratic groups like the DCCC.

My favorite topic

Breathe. (Sorry)

For those just tuning in, who don't eat and breath politics, might be worth a quick second explaining what we mean by the top-two business. The way elections have worked in California since 2012 is the top two finishers, regardless of party affiliation, advance to the November general election. Lot of potential ramifications we can get into later, if folks so choose.

That's interesting about the Senate race, Sarah. I talked to a Republican voter in Huntington Beach this morning, who said she thinks Sen. Dianne Feinstein is alright, and she didn't know any of the GOP candidates on the ballot.

Yeah, it's interesting (and all anecdotal, obviously), but two precincts in my neighborhood (pretty liberal northeast LA) had had just a few dozen voters that morning combined, whereas a voter from Palos Verdes Estates emailed in to say their polling place had a full parking lot and steady streams of voters around 8 a.m.

And none of the voters I talked to said they planned to back a Republican for Senate, which is contrary to some of the late polls.

It sure doesn't seem like it from the anecdotes I heard here in Los Angeles today. The polls were sleepy.

Well, Mark pretty much took all of my answers, but I'll also be looking out for how strong vote totals are for GOP House incumbents who have to defend their seats in the fall

And I’ll take a crack at a second thing to watch: How strong was voter turnout overall? Non-presidential primaries are the elections that Californians routinely skip. Did this one break the cycle?

I’ll bite. My big question is what Republicans do in the U.S. Senate race. Kind of to the point Christina raised, but a slightly different twist. The California Republican Party did nothing to endorse one of the activists who ran, and so GOP voters had no clue who might be the preferred pick. With that in mind, where did the votes fall?

Also, are there any warning signs--eg higher-than-expected Democratic totals or a depressed GOP turnout, that might suggest some not-perceived-to-be-all-that-vulnerable Republicans candidates are in more trouble than we might think.

I have nothing terribly original here: Who's the top two in the governors race, and are Democrats shut out of any of those House races they're targeting in SoCal?

Ha ha! Kidding, Dodger fans!

Whoa, wait a minute. Am I in the wrong chat group? I thought we were talking about Madison Bumgarner's return to the mound for the SF Giants!

I love surprises, so that's what I'm keeping an eye out for. Were polls wrong in the gubernatorial contest? Could a dark horse Republican candidate come in second in the U.S. Senate race? Will a sitting member of Congress come in third?

So, what is everyone looking out for tonight? I'll start.

To get things started, here are a whole bunch of handy links. If you haven't yet voted, these might be helpful!

Here's a bunch of our coverage: http://161.35.110.226/politics/elections/

Meet the candidates for governor: http://161.35.110.226/politics/la-pol-ca-california-governor-list-2018-story.html

See where the major candidates stand on the issues: http://161.35.110.226/politics/la-pol-ca-california-governor-issues-20180604-htmlstory.html

Follow the money: http://161.35.110.226/ca2018

Learn about the competitive congressional races we're tracking: http://161.35.110.226/cahouserankings

Here's a conversation with John, Christine and I about what we're watching for tonight: https://www.facebook.com/latimes/videos/10156639709613010/?notifid=1528229749457882

Here's where we'll have live election results: http://161.35.110.226/projects/la-pol-ca-california-primary-election-results-2018/

Hello everyone! I'm Christina Bellantoni, the assistant managing editor for politics at the Los Angeles Times. We're all super excited about California's primary election. Polls close tonight at 8 p.m., and we'll be chatting with readers here throughout the evening with our observations of what we're seeing and what that might portend for the November election.

I'll be joined this evening by Sacramento bureau chief John Myers and national political writer Mark Z. Barabak, bylines that will be familiar to Times readers.

We'll also hear from reporters Christine Mai-Duc and Sarah Wire, who are covering the races for U.S. House and U.S. Senate.