Could redistricting weaken local GOP?

Alex Coolman

They only just finished sweeping up the confetti and folding up the

chairs at their campaign headquarters, so it can’t be time for

Republicans and Democrats to think about the next election.

Or can it?

While Republicans have been able to bask in the comfort of incumbency

and registration advantages locally, with GOP stalwarts Christopher Cox

(R-Newport Beach) and Dana Rohrabacher (R-Huntington Beach) cruising to

easy victories, the future may not hold such easy slam dunks.

The wild card in the next election, one that could force both sides to

scramble to create new bases of support, will be redistricting.

“That’s very much on the horizon,” Orange County Republican Party

Chairman Tom Fuentes said. “Our efforts to keep Orange County Republican

can be affected by the redistricting, and [Democrats] are very able at

gerrymandering.”

The only possible response? Keep the party fires burning.

“We’ll prepare as best we can,” Fuentes said. “One needs to kind of

see where the lines are before you can develop a final strategy.”

On the other hand, Jeanne Costales, chairwoman of the Orange County

Democrats, is looking forward to what happens when new districts are

drawn. With Democrats controlling the state Legislature and the

governor’s seat, she thinks there’s reason to suspect the lines might

turn this area into friendlier terrain for the donkey.

“I think there’s a lot to look at in Orange County as it becomes more

diverse and more diverse in political opinion,” she said.

Could new districts work in the Democrats’ favor?

“Absolutely,” said Costales, who said it’s possible the Democrats

could gain at least one Assembly seat and make gains in Rohrabacher’s

45th Congressional District when redistricting is completed.

Despite these looming political battles, Fuentes on Monday was looking

forward to the Thanksgiving holiday.

“This is a time for rest and reflection,” he said -- not only for

himself, but also for the 7,000 volunteers who turned out to work for the

party on election day.

Fuentes the political animal, meanwhile, was still interested in

poring over voting returns -- and hashing out strategy for the next time

around.

“The Democrats made no progress in any partisan office in the Orange

County community,” he said. “That’s the best way we can judge our

success, and we’re very pleased with the results here locally.

“We wish the results were different in places like Los Angeles and San

Francisco, and then maybe we’d have a chance to carry the state.”

Costales was less thrilled with how things turned out.

In her view, the Democratic candidates who ran in some of

Newport-Mesa’s conservative districts -- people like Ted Crisell in the

45th Congressional District and 47th District candidate John Graham --

are still in the infancy of their efforts to build party support and name

recognition.

And so long as they lack grass-roots support, she said, the party must

be very selective about where it dedicates its efforts.

“As much as it gives a hard bone to the districts that are not

competitive, absolutely we’re not going to change the funding,” Costales

said.

What will be impossible, both parties say, is for candidates to win

without large networks of supporters who are passionately committed to

getting their name out in the community.”We call them parachute

candidates,” Costales said -- candidates who think they can float down

into an easy victory without going through the grunt work of building

support.