Dodgers could face a familiar foe in playoff opener

Now that the Dodgers have officially clinched their second consecutive National League West title, it appears likely they will start this year’s postseason the same way they ended last year’s playoffs: with Clayton Kershaw on the mound against the St. Louis Cardinals.

That didn’t work out so well last fall, with the Cardinals pounding the Cy Young award winner for seven runs and 10 hits in four innings in Game 6 of the National League Championship Series, advancing to the World Series while the Dodgers advanced to the airport and their charter flight home.

The rematch is subject to change, of course. Because after being rained out Wednesday, the Washington Nationals are 92-64 with two games left against the New York Mets and four against the Miami Marlins, while the Dodgers, who are off Thursday, are 91-68 with three games to play against the Colorado Rockies.

Should the Dodgers pass the Nationals and finish the regular season with the league’s best record, they would then play host to the winner of next week’s one-game wild-card playoff, likely between the Pittsburgh Pirates and San Francisco Giants. The winner of the Central Division, which is currently led by the Cardinals, would then play Washington.

Pittsburgh can still pass the Cardinals in the Central, though, and the Milwaukee Brewers could catch the Giants in the wild-card race, all of which would complicate everything.

But as dawn broke Thursday it was the Dodgers and Cardinals at Dodger Stadium next Friday, so let’s go with that.

That’s clearly the matchup recent history prefers anyway. In three of the Dodgers’ five most recent postseason visits, dating to 2004, they’ve played the Cardinals somewhere along the way, losing to them twice.

In both instances St. Louis went on to the World Series, where it lost to the Boston Red Sox. That can’t happen this year since the Red Sox didn’t make the playoffs. But that’s not the only reason this year’s matchup appears to favor the Dodgers.

For starters, there’s the season series between the teams. The Dodgers won four of the seven games and the competition wasn’t nearly that close, with the Dodgers outscoring St. Louis by 10 runs and shutting the Cardinals out twice. One of those shutouts belonged to Kershaw (21-3, 1.77 earned-run average), baseball’s best left-hander, who will start the playoff opener.

Then there’s momentum. The teams have nearly identical records in September -- the Cardinals, who have lost two straight, are 15-8 this month while the Dodgers, riding a two-game winning streak, are 14-8. But the Dodgers are averaging a baseball-best six runs a game, more than two runs a game more than the Cardinals.

Want some more numbers? The Dodgers have a lower staff ERA and the majors’ third-best team batting average, hitting .264/.332/.404 with 130 homers to the Cardinals’ .253/.321/.371 and 105 home runs.

The Dodgers have the majors’ top run producer in Adrian Gonzalez and baseball’s leading base stealer in Dee Gordon.

The Cardinals didn’t win 88 games with smoke and mirrors, though. They have the majors’ winningest right-hander in Adam Wainwright (20-9, 2.38), a deeper and more effective bullpen anchored by closer Trevor Rosenthal (44 saves), a defense that committed 18 fewer errors than the Dodgers and a catcher in Yadier Molina who threw out a higher percentage of would-be base stealers than anyone in baseball.

They’ve also had the Dodgers’ number in the postseason recently. But the Cardinals’ number may be up this time around.