NFC South preview: Jameis Winston and the Buccaneers are holding their own

He’s surrounded in the division by two most valuable players and a Super Bowl winner, but Jameis Winston has more than held his own.

The Tampa Bay quarterback passed for 4,090 yards last season and became the first player in NFL history with at least 4,000 yards passing in each of his first two seasons. (He and fellow No. 1 pick Andrew Luck are the only players to rack up 8,000 yards in their first two years.)

Winston need only to look around the NFC South if he’s in search of role models. That division is the NFL’s strongest in terms of quarterbacks, with MVPs Matt Ryan (2016) in Atlanta and Cam Newton (2015) in Carolina, and Drew Brees, a likely first-ballot Hall of Famer, in New Orleans.

“He’s a special guy,” Buccaneers coach Dirk Koetter said of Winston. “He sets the tone. I mean, we have a lot of good football players on this team, but from a leadership standpoint, Jameis sets the tone. He’s the leader of our football team.”

Ryan is coming off a phenomenal season in which he guided the Falcons to the Super Bowl.

They built a 28-3 lead over New England midway through the third quarter, before Tom Brady and the Patriots made the greatest comeback in Super Bowl history to win in overtime.

“Any time that we kind of dwell on that is wasted time,” Ryan told reporters before training camp. “We have to focus on trying to become the best football team that this group can be.”

Ryan led the NFL with a stratospheric passer rating of 117.1, the fifth-highest rating for a single season in league history. He set a team passing record with 4,944 yards.

“When you think of consistent excellence this season, you think of Matt Ryan,” Falcons owner Arthur Blank said.

The year before, Carolina’s Newton was the toast of the NFL — except in the Super Bowl against Denver, when he was simply toast.

Newton absorbed multiple crushing hits last season, prompting coach Ron Rivera to look for ways to take some of the weight off his shoulders. The Panthers used the No. 8 pick on Stanford running back Christian McCaffrey, who figures to help both in the backfield and as a receiving target.

Brees, 38, has all sorts of milestones within reach this season. Among them:

The Saint, who has 5,836 completions in his career, needs 290 more to surpass Peyton Manning (6,125) for the second-most all time. Brees needs 465 completions to surpass Brett Favre (6,300) for the all-time record.

He has led the league in completions five times and can tie Dan Marino (six) for the all-time record.

He needs 35 touchdown passes to join Manning (539) and Favre (508) as the only players with 500 career touchdown passes.

Brees has four seasons with at least 35 touchdown passes and can become the first player in NFL history to pass for at least 35 touchdown passes in five seasons. New England’s Tom Brady and Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers have a chance to do the same this season.

Brees is in the final year of his contract, and has a clause in his deal that prevents the Saints from using the franchise-player designation on him after 2017.

“Honestly, my mind has not been there at all,” he told reporters in July when asked about his contract situation. “It’s really a non-issue. For me, it’s all about this season and how good can we be this season. That’s really all I’m focused on right now.”

Here is a capsulized look at each team in the NFC South in predicted order of finish:

1 | ATLANTA

2016 | 11-5, 1st in South

Last year in playoffs | 2016

Going all the way: Even though the last impression they left was the Super Bowl collapse, the 2016 Falcons were phenomenal. Quarterback Matt Ryan was the league MVP, and the team scored the seventh-most points in NFL history (540, tied with the 2000 Rams). They have the league’s best receiver in Julio Jones, and Pro Bowl fixtures in running back Devonta Freeman and center Alex Mack. Every key player returns from that offense.

They’re doomed: Kyle Shanahan is gone as offensive coordinator, replaced by former USC coach Steve Sarkisian, and there’s no telling if the Falcons can recapture their mojo of 2016. A Super Bowl hangover certainly isn’t out of the question for a franchise that historically has had a hard time stringing together great seasons. The NFC South rival Carolina Panthers lost in the Super Bowl in 2015 and went 6-10 last year.

Now hear this: “28-3” — Billboard in Atlanta, paid for by a New Orleans T-shirt company, reminding fans of the lead the Falcons blew in the Super Bowl.

2 | TAMPA BAY

2016 | 9-7, 2nd in South

Last year in playoffs | 2007

Going all the way: Jameis Winston is a budding superstar, a maturing team leader and gunslinger who is an ideal centerpiece for Dirk Koetter’s stretch-the-field offense. He’s got excellent targets in Mike Evans, DeSean Jackson and rookie tight end O.J. Howard. On the other side of the ball, the Buccaneers look increasingly comfortable in the system of defensive coordinator Mike Smith.

They’re doomed: Who knows what Tampa Bay will get from up-and-down running back Doug Martin, who is suspended for the first three games of the season? Winston has a terrific arm but forces a lot of throws and had 33 passes intercepted in his first two seasons. The secondary is suspect, something the excellent NFC South quarterbacks should be able to exploit.

Now hear this: “In the NFL, every guy is really good — like coach said earlier, it’s like an Alabama-LSU matchup every day.” — O.J. Howard, Buccaneers rookie tight end, a first-round pick from Alabama.

3 | NEW ORLEANS

2016 | 7-9, 3rd in South

Last year in playoffs | 2013

Going all the way: The Saints have a future first-ballot Hall of Famer in quarterback Drew Brees, who led the league in passing by a wide margin last year. They’ve got one of the game’s great play-callers in coach Sean Payton, and now a former most valuable player in running back Adrian Peterson. They’re going to find a way to put the ball in the end zone.

They’re doomed: The Saints are starting the season with two of their front teeth knocked out. Left tackle Terron Armstead (shoulder) and center Max Unger (foot) are rehabbing from surgeries, meaning the team can’t rely on the run-blocking or protection it enjoys at full strength. Defensively, this franchise is still a work in progress, seeing as it was historically awful on that side of the ball in recent years.

Now hear this: “We’re not building for the future. It’s hard not to believe in our team. We’re ready to win it now.” — defensive end Cam Jordan, to SI.com, on the chances for a second Lombardi Trophy.

4 | CAROLINA

2016 | 6-10, 4th in South

Last year in playoffs | 2015

Going all the way: Coach Ron Rivera wanted to take some of the pressure off quarterback Cam Newton, who took several jarring hits last season, so he drafted Stanford running back Christian McCaffrey. If the preseason is an accurate indicator, the dynamic McCaffrey will be fun to watch. Defensive end Julius Peppers is back to end his career where he started it, as is cornerback Captain Munnerlyn.

They’re doomed: In many ways, Newton is a strength. He took a significant step backward last year, though, after leading his team to a Super Bowl in 2015. He had a career-low completion rate of 52.9%, with 19 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. The Panthers have spent a lot on their defensive front but have yet to see a robust return on their investment.

Now hear this: “Put two [U’s] on there and people will think we misspelled it or something.” —DeeJay Howell, Panthers fan, to the Gaston Gazette on naming his son Cameron Luuuke Howell in honor of quarterback Cam Newton and linebacker Luke Kuechly

sam.farmer@latimes.com

Twitter: @LATimesfarmer