USC vs. Arizona State: How the Trojans and Sun Devils match up

USC (1-3) vs. Arizona State (4-0), at the Coliseum. TV: Channel 11, 5:30 p.m.

Times staff writer Zach Helfand analyzes Saturday’s game:

Most intriguing story line: USC must win six of its final eight games to climb above .500 by the end of the regular season. USC will be favored against Arizona State, which presents Coach Clay Helton an opportunity for his first victory over a Power Five conference opponent since being named the full-time head coach.

USC pass offense vs. Arizona State pass defense: Arizona State is the not-so-proud owner of the worst pass defense in major college football, allowing an average of 404 yards per game. USC’s offense barely manages half of that on average, and doesn’t even come very close to that in total offense. Sam Darnold completed 18 of 26 passes for 253 yards last week against Utah, performing well in his first college start. He also seemed to reignite receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster, who neared 100 yards for the first time this season. Arizona State will bring pressure, but USC should be able to handle it. EDGE: USC.

USC run offense vs. Arizona State run defense: USC will probably have to pass well against Arizona State, because the Sun Devils are stout against the run. Tackle Tashon Smallwood and end JoJo Wicker, a freshman from Long Beach Poly High, anchor a unit that has held opponents to less than 100 rushing yards per game. Arizona State is 16th nationally in rushing defense. USC has had trouble figuring out its running back rotation. Justin Davis ran for 102 yards in the first half against Utah, but didn’t get a carry in the fourth quarter. In an ideal game, Helton said, he’d get Davis 20 to 25 touches. His season high is 16. EDGE: Arizona State.

Arizona State pass offense vs. USC pass defense: Manny Wilkins is having a breakout season at quarterback for Arizona State. The sophomore has completed 67% of his passes for 1,085 yards in four games, with five touchdowns and three interceptions. Wilkins’ most-used target is senior Tim White (21 receptions, 221 yards) but freshman N’Keal Harry (16 catches for 188 yards, two touchdowns) has asserted himself. The passing game is of secondary importance: the Sun Devils pass just 30% of the time. USC cornerback Adoree’ Jackson has to prove he can rebound after being picked on in the fourth quarter against Utah, including the decisive play, when he lost a shoe and slipped on the play that produced the Utes’ game-winning touchdown. He said he has bought a new pair. EDGE: USC.

Arizona State run offense vs. USC run defense: This is where Arizona State wins games, and this is where USC has struggled. The Sun Devils run 80.5 plays per game — mostly runs — and rack up an average of almost 508 yards. Arizona State’s 48.8 points-per-game average is seventh in the nation. USC is 94th in rush defense, with a thin defensive line that looked ragged by the end of the game against Utah. Demario Richard leads the Sun Devils with 348 yards in 90 carries, and Kalen Ballage has nine touchdowns. But the most dangerous runner is Wilkins, who has 263 yards and four touchdowns in 56 carries and can extend plays. “He’s as good as I’ve seen thus far, that we’ve played,” Helton said. EDGE: Arizona State.

Special teams: Arizona State’s firepower obliges USC to be more aggressive. Helton implied USC might go for it more often in fourth-down situations, instead of punting or even kicking a field goal. Arizona State kicker Zane Gonzalez has made 11 of 12 field-goal attempts, including three of four from 50 yards or more. After another kickoff return touchdown against Utah, USC’s Jackson does not expect Gonzalez or Sun Devils punter Matt Haack to give him many opportunities. EDGE: Arizona State.

Zach Helfand’s pick: It’s only his second start, but USC will need Darnold to carry it to a victory. The redshirt freshman is probably up for the challenge if USC can limit its mistakes. A home crowd should help. USC 34, Arizona State 28.

zach.helfand@latimes.com

Follow Zach Helfand on Twitter @zhelfand