The rest of the world, too, anxiously awaits U.S. election results
A Ukrainian graduate student, a Taiwanese travel agency manager, an industrial engineer in Mexico: None is a U.S. voter, but all believe that they and their respective countries have a big stake in the outcome of next week’s presidential election.
With the knife’s-edge electoral contest a week away, anxiety over whether Donald Trump could emerge the winner over Kamala Harris is running high in some parts of the world — places where a reprise of the former president’s old policies, or the new ones he has promised in his campaign, could land particularly hard.
For the record:
11:22 a.m. Oct. 31, 2024An earlier version of this story incorrectly said that the full-scale war in Ukraine will soon enter its third year. That war is nearing the end of its third year. Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022.
Perhaps nowhere confronts a bleaker election-related dichotomy than Ukraine, soon to end a third year of trying to fight off a full-scale invasion by Russian President Vladimir Putin’s military. Many believe Trump, if victorious, would swiftly end crucial U.S. military aid and force an end to the war on the Russian leader’s terms.
“My circle of friends ... we are afraid of Trump winning,” said 21-year-old Vladyslav Chyryk, a master’s degree student who is too young to be drafted, but is considering joining the Ukrainian army as it struggles to hold its own on the battlefield.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has tried to keep open a channel of communication with Trump, meeting with him in New York in September. But at raucous rallies and in flurries of interviews, the Republican nominee routinely derides Zelensky, and recently blamed Ukraine for Russia’s 2022 invasion.
“I think we are all very worried about his statements about Ukraine, and even his level of knowledge about our country,” said Ksenia Sitnichenko, 31, who works with civil society and humanitarian aid groups.
It is “pretty obvious that Trump wouldn’t be a good outcome for Ukrainians,” she said.
In the event Trump wins, Ukraine aid would almost certainly become a point of contention with U.S. allies in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
But that’s not the only pressure point between Trump and transatlantic partners. Trump’s first term, before the war in Ukraine broke out, was deeply disruptive to a security architecture that U.S. presidents, Republicans and Democrats alike, have built on since the end of World War II.
In addition to trade-war concerns, Western allies fear a Trump presidency could erode democratic norms and help fuel a right-wing political resurgence already making itself felt across much of Europe, analysts say.
“Many worry that a Trump return could embolden other populist-nationalist leaders in Europe and beyond, as was seen during his time in office,” Laura von Daniels of Germany’s Institute for International and Security Affairs wrote after Harris became the Democratic nominee.
Not all the world, of course, is captivated by the American political contest, even one that is considered so dramatic and consequential. Many ordinary people profess a lack of interest in the election outcome, believing it will have little impact on their daily lives.
In the Gaza Strip and Lebanon, there is a widespread sense that neither U.S. presidential contender would do much to help quell war with Israel or protect civilian lives.
“I think whoever is coming [into office as U.S. president], it’s going to be the same for us,” said Majeda Al-Saad, a Beirut woman who runs workshops for Palestinian women in Lebanese refugee camps. “They act nice when they start, but it’s all the same policy.”
In Israel, particularly among supporters of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump remains broadly popular for the expectation that he would give the country a freer hand to move aggressively against Iran and its proxies, Hamas and Hezbollah.
But Israelis who hope for a cease-fire in Gaza and a deal to free hostages being held there worry that their prime minister would face little pressure from a prospective Trump administration to strike an accord, even though the Republican nominee has made vague assertions that the war should end soon.
Beyond discord over Washington’s policies in places like the Middle East, the notion of a U.S.-dominated world order is being sharply challenged in various international forums.
At last week’s meeting in Russia of the BRICS nations, a group of emerging economies that want a greater say in global institutions, leaders called for the creation of an alternative payment system that would not be dependent on the U.S. dollar. Such gatherings, and the rhetoric they generate, reflect sentiment that American wishes — and the American election — do not necessarily reflect the concerns of much of the world’s population.
In Taiwan, where many supported Trump in 2020 for his tough-on-China stance, some people have since grown wary of the former president’s mercurial approach to foreign policy.
Trump has presented himself as a strongman counterweight of sorts to Chinese President Xi Jinping, who aspires to reclaim sovereignty over Taiwan as a part of China, by force if necessary.
But Trump’s contradictory claims — including criticizing Taiwan’s semiconductor industry for taking American jobs and declaring that the island democracy should pay for U.S. protection — have turned some against him.
“Trump follows a path that prioritizes America’s own interests,” said Kenny Wu, a 55-year-old manager at a travel agency in Taipei. “As long as there are enough benefits, he could easily abandon Taiwan.”
The election comes at a critical time for Taiwan, as China has launched unprecedented military drills around the island and threatened the death penalty for advocates of Taiwanese independence. Without U.S. support, the island of 23 million has little chance of fending off a Chinese military assault.
Harris has said little on Taiwan, other than that she would maintain the status quo and ensure Taiwan’s ability to defend itself.
“How Taiwanese see America could very well affect how likely Taiwanese are to defend their homes in the event of a Chinese invasion,” the Brookings Institute wrote following a July poll that showed only 17% of 1,500 Taiwanese respondents said they wanted Trump to win the election.
“He is highly unpredictable,” said Fang-Yu Chen, assistant professor of political science at Soochow University in Taiwan, who noted that part of Trump’s popularity had stemmed from Taiwan-friendly officials in his previous administration.
That might not be the case if Trump wins this time, he added.
In Latin America, the possibility of a Trump victory is also prompting some unease, particularly over his vows to crack down on migration and to levy tariffs on U.S. imports.
Perhaps no country would be more impacted than Mexico, whose economy depends heavily on its ability to attract factories eager for access to U.S. markets, and which last year sent $367 billion in goods and services to the U.S.
“There’s no question that a Trump administration would be more problematic for Mexico than a Harris one,” said Pamela K. Starr, a professor of international relations at USC. “There is no country more exposed to Trump-related risk in the world.”
As president, Trump in 2018 imposed tariffs on steel from Mexico and other countries, prompting counter-tariffs on American farm goods and straining U.S.-Mexico relations. He threatened a broader set of tariffs on Mexican goods, but eventually backed off after extracting a promise from Mexican authorities to take measures to stop migrants from reaching the U.S. border.
A recent report from Moody’s Analytics said that if a victorious Trump enacted new tariffs, the Mexican economy would fall into recession, the currency would depreciate, and inflation would rise.
Like many in Mexico, Fernando Trejo Reyes, 49, sees his personal financial situation through the prism of the U.S.-Mexican economic relationship. He is one of 14 million who work in the country’s manufacturing sector.
Trejo moved to the industrial city of Queretaro, in central Mexico, more than two decades ago, seeking greater opportunity than could be found in the poor farm town in rural Michoacan state where he grew up.
Now an industrial engineer at a company that produces brakes used for vehicles working in airport hangars, he forged a pathway into the middle class, buying a home and sending his two children to private school. But skittishness on the part of investors concerned about Trump’s tariff threat is already being felt, he said.
“If things become unstable, we are all at risk, from a worker at the lowest operational level to a manager,” he said. The natural result, he predicted, would be higher rates of poverty — and northward migration.
“If employment goes down,” said Trejo, “more people will go in search of the American dream.”
Times staff writers King, Yang and Linthicum reported from Washington, Taipei and Mexico City, respectively. Special correspondent Ayres reported from Kyiv, Ukraine. Staff writers Nabih Bulos in Beirut and Tracy Wilkinson in Washington, as well as researcher Xin-yun Wu in Taipei, contributed to this report.
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