Poll Analysis: Bush Continues to Enjoy Lead and a Bounce From GOP Convention

     Enjoying a bump from the Republican convention, George W. Bush has widened his lead over Al Gore among registered voters by four percentage points, stretching the gap to a nine point lead. In a two-way race where the poll asked which ticket voters would be more likely to support and eliminated Ralph Nader and Pat Buchanan as contenders, Bush/Cheney maintains a six-point lead over Gore/Lieberman. Whether Gore will in turn receive his bounce in the polling numbers after the Democratic convention remains to be seen.
     Each candidate has secured the bulk of his own party members, with Bush faring much better among Republicans than Gore does with Democrats, and with independents throwing their support to the Bush camp.
     Registered voters are less familiar with Gore's running mate selection–Sen. Joe Lieberman–than they were with Bush's selection of former Secretary of Defense Dick Cheney. At the same time, Gore took a bigger risk in his selection, placing a Jew–and an Orthodox at that–on the ticket for the first time in our nation's history. The aftershocks of this selection will really only be realized in November.
     Gore's main obstacle in winning the election is his connection with Clinton, with those unfavorable toward him citing his association with the Clinton administration as the predominant reason. Bush, on the other hand, cannot afford to become overly confident, as registered voters believe Gore, not Bush, to be more qualified to handle issues ranging from Social Security to the economy.

     The Horserace
     According to the Los Angeles Times' latest poll, conducted August 11-13, Bush leads Gore by nine points among all registered voters:
     • 48% of registered voters said they are planning to vote for Bush in the upcoming election.
     • 39% are planning on voting for GoreRalph Nader, the Green party candidate, received 3% of the vote, and Pat Buchanan, the likely Reform party candidate got 2% of the vote. Eight percent of registered voters were undecided at the time the poll was conducted.Among likely voters, Bush's lead jumps four points to give him a 12 point lead; among this group of voters, Bush leads Gore 52% to 40%. Five percent of likely voters did not know for whom they planned to vote.
     In good news for Bush, his support has solidified. Two weeks ago, when the Los Angeles Times conducted a poll just before the Republican convention, 27% of both Bush and Gore voters said they would still consider voting for someone else come November; now 23% of Bush's voters say they might vote for someone else, while Gore's numbers have remained stable over the two weeks (with 28% of his voters saying they could vote for someone else come November). However, this boost could be due to a rally that inevitably comes from the convention.
     Additionally, while independents were more divided in their vote in the late July poll, now 48% are supporting Bush, while just 32% are planning to vote for Gore. Bush has also kept his strong support among Republicans, 95% of whom plan to vote for him, while Gore is receiving solid but less ardent support among Democrats (78% of whom are Gore voters). At the same time, 12% of Democrats say they will vote for Bush, while just 2% of Republicans plan to vote for Gore.
     Bush has also seen a widening of his lead in both the Midwest where he enjoys an 11 point lead over Gore (two weeks ago the lead was just three points) and in the South, where Bush's lead has jumped to 20 points from 16 points two weeks ago.
     Reliable Democratic constituencies, such as Clinton supporters, liberals and union households, are also not a sure thing for Gore. At the end of July, 13% of Clinton (1996) voters said they planned to vote for Bush; in the latest poll, 18% of this group said they planned to vote for Bush. Similarly, two weeks ago, 23% of liberals said they planned to vote for Bush; now 29% of liberals plan to do so. And while 51% of union households say they will vote for Gore, a full third plan to vote for Bush, extremely large numbers for a Republican candidate.
     In other daunting news for Gore, women, who supported Clinton overwhelmingly both in 1992 and 1996 are giving Bush the edge (44% to Gore's 41%). Additionally, the elderly who tend to be more loyal voters, are splitting their vote (42% of those 65 and older are Bush supporters, 41% are Gore supporters). In contrast, this group overwhelmingly voted for Clinton in 1996.

     The Lieberman Selection
     Joe Lieberman, an Orthodox Jewish Senator from Connecticut, is commonly viewed as a bold choice for Gore, as no Jew has ever been on the ticket of a major party in the United States.
     With 38% unaware of who he was (compared with Cheney's 30% at the time of his selection), Lieberman is viewed favorably by those who have in fact heard of him (50%). Additionally, 58% of registered voters say Lieberman would be qualified to step in as president (compared with the 61% who felt that way about Cheney immediately after his selection)
     In a bit of good news for the Gore camp, just under a quarter of voters think that Lieberman is more liberal than they are (a third found Cheney to be more conservative than they themselves were). Equal numbers of registered voters (28% for Lieberman, 29% for Cheney) found the candidates to be about where they were in political ideology.
     Additionally, 78% of registered voters said the country was ready for a Jewish vice president (8% said it was not), and 92% said they would hypothetically vote for a Jew who was running for president (compared with 90% who said they would vote for an African American, 85% who would vote for a woman or Latino, and 72% who would vote for an evangelical Christian).
     However, further exploration into the selection of a Jew as a vice presidential running mate points to some latent anti-Semitism. While 52% of registered voters believe that Jews have the right amount of influence in this country, 10% say Jews have too much influence, and 24% are "not sure" what they think.
     Furthermore, the poll asked a question in which two candidates, Mr. A and Mr. B, both approximately the same age, both married professionals with children, and both from small cities, were running against one another. One group was told that Mr. A was Jewish, the other group heard no religion for either candidate.
     When voters were not given Mr. A's religion, he beat Mr. B 59% to 19%. When voters were told Mr. A was Jewish, he still won the election, but by 50% to Mr. B's 25%. More disturbing, however, is the slip in Mr. A's vote among certain coveted voting blocks:
     • Among self-identified independents, Mr. A's lead drops from a 43 point lead to a 31 point lead (60% of independents said they would vote for Mr. A when they did not know he was Jewish, and 17 % planned to vote for Mr. B. When told that Mr. A was a Jew, his support drops to 55% among this group, with Mr. B jumping to 24%)
     • Among moderates, Mr. A leads Mr. B by 63% to 22% when they do not know he is Jewish; when told that he is Jewish, Mr. A gets 48% to Mr. B's 30% among this group.
     In fact, when told that Mr. A is Jewish, his lead drops among every group except Democrats, liberals and African Americans.
     While it is impossible to determine whether it is because he is Jewish, just 14% of Democrats say they would be more likely to vote for Gore because of his selection of Lieberman, while 34% of Republicans said they were more likely to vote for Bush because of his selection of Cheney. Similarly, while 78% of Republicans said they believed Cheney to be qualified to step in as president, just 62% of Democrats say the same thing about Lieberman.
     Additionally, 18% of independents would be more likely to vote for Gore because of Lieberman; 24% would be more likely to vote for Bush because of Cheney.
     As Cheney's conservative voting record will likely play a role in this election, so will Lieberman's religion. Whether these factors will help or hurt each ticket will really only be played out on November 7.

     Candidate Impressions
     Just over half of all registered voters are favorable to Gore (54%), with four in 10 saying they are unfavorable toward him. Bush's favorability ratings are higher, with nearly six in 10 voters having a favorable opinion toward him (59%) and just a third expressing unfavorable feelings.
     Registered voters like Gore because they see him as having the experience to be president, because of his stance on the issues, and more simply because he is a Democrat. Bush draws favorable ratings for what he has done in Texas, his stand on the issues, and the feeling of trust voters place on him.
     Gore's biggest negatives are his affiliation with the Clinton administration, and along those same lines, the lack of trust in him as a candidate and the sense that he flip-flops on issues.
     Unfortunately for Gore, registered voters want change; 55% would like to see the next president change Clinton's policies (just 19% would like to see them changed a lot, 35% say a few specific things need to be changed), and overall, this group throws their support to Bush (68% to Gore's 20%). Similarly, a majority of registered voters dislike Clinton (59%), and two thirds of this group plan to vote for Bush (just 23% plan to vote for Gore)
     However, in a bit of good news for Gore, he beats Bush by more than 30 points among the 58% of people who like Clinton's policies. Perhaps Gore's selection of Lieberman, an outspoken critic of the Clinton/Lewinsky scandal, will succeed in providing him with the distance from Clinton he so clearly needs.
     Bush's negatives, none of which are articulated by more than 13% of registered voters (compared with the 29% who say that Gore's association with Clinton is the reason they are unfavorable toward him) include his stand on issues, his link with his father, and, like Gore, a lack of trust.

     Issues and Attributes
     Most voters feel the economy is strong, and feel confident in their own personal finances. About equal numbers give Gore credit for the strong economy as not; 43% believe Gore deserves credit for our economy (49% believe he does not deserve credit). In comparison, 61% attribute credit to Clinton for our economy; just 37% say he deserves no credit.
     Not surprisingly, those voters who credit Gore with the robust economy are planning to vote for him, while those who do not plan on voting for Bush.
     However, while 56% believe the country is headed in the right direction (36% say the country is headed off on the wrong track), up from 49% who said so two weeks ago, Gore does not truly benefit from this perception. Among those who say the country is off in the right direction, only 51% are planning to vote for Gore (37% say Bush). At the same time, 64% of those who believe the country is headed off in the wrong direction plan to vote for Bush (and just a quarter of this group say they will vote for Gore).
     Our strong economy has shifted registered voters' focus away from the economy, often at the forefront of issues important to voters, and over to social issues such as education, Social Security, and health care, all of which come up as issues that voters would like to see addressed this election cycle.
     The Los Angeles Times' poll tested a series of personal attributes and asked registered voters whether each one applied more to Bush or to Gore. While voters say that "has the experience for the job" applies more to Gore than to Bush (by a whopping 25 points), and while Gore maintains a slight edge on "cares about people like me," Bush beats Gore on every other attribute, with his largest leads coming with "is personally likeable" (where he leads Gore by 17 points) and "is a strong leader" (where he leads by 13 points).
     In additional good news for Bush, more of his supporters say that he is strong leader than Gore voters believe him to have the experience for the job. In other words, 88% of Bush voters say he, not Gore, is a strong leader, while just 64% of Gore voters say he (and not Bush) has the experience for the job.
     The poll also asked voters which candidate would better handle a variety of issues. Voters believe Gore would do a better job in keeping the economy prosperous, in strengthening Social Security and Medicare, and in handling health care (and as previously mentioned, two of these areas are of top concern to voters). They also think Gore has a better grasp of the issues in general. They are split on who would do a better job on gun control and abortion, and give Bush a statistically insignificant lead in their perceptions of who would do a better job handling education. Only in the area of military defense does Bush do better than Gore.
     However, should the election turn out the way the results of the poll are pointing, registered voters' faith in Gore on a variety of issues is not enough to swing the election in his direction. More important to voters, apparently, are personal qualities such as leadership and likability.

     The Conventions
     About three-quarters of registered voters plan on watching or listening to at least some of the Democratic convention (the same number said they planned to watch or listen to at least part of the Republican convention). At the same time, however, over half of registered voters believe the conventions have become spectacles where the candidates are merely grandstanding (compared with the third who believe that the conventions are part of our political process and help generate excitement about the election).
     Additionally, with all the attention given to minorities at the Republican convention, where the speakers (including Bush) insisted that the Republican party was a new, more inclusive one, less than three in 10 voters (27%) were convinced that this oratory was true, while 63% said such talk was just politics as usual. Even a third of Republicans say that they think the speechifying at the Republican convention was politics as usual. Moreover, just one in 10 African Americans believe the Republican party is now more inclusive (31% of whites think so).

HOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED
     The Times Poll contacted 1,227 registered voters nationwide, including 728 voters most likely to vote, by telephone Aug. 11-13, 2000. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the nation. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and unlisted numbers could be contacted. The entire sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education and region. The margin of sampling error for registered voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points; for likely voters it is 4 points. For certain subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.