China keeps quiet about Central Committee session

Reporting from Beijing —  There were no balloons, no banners, no rallies or slogans. The official Chinese press maintained radio silence and even the country’s looser-lipped bloggers didn’t dare to speculate on what happened behind closed doors.

No matter that 365 of the most powerful people in China, the members of the Communist Party’s Central Committee, had wrapped up a four-day session Tuesday, presumably including discussions for a hand-over of leadership in 2012. Politics, particularly personnel matters, receives scant coverage from Chinese media.

In a communique, the Central Committee said only that the 18th National Party Congress would take place in the latter half of 2012 “to unite and lead all the Chinese people in building a moderately prosperous society in an all-around way, as well as accelerating the nation’s modernization drive.”

The official New China News Agency said the Central Committee’s meeting included discussion of how to improve the nation’s “cultural soft power,” meaning how the country projects its image overseas, and “cultural security,” presumably controlling the Internet and new media. There was no mention of an upcoming leadership transition.

“The Central Committee is like the College of Cardinals choosing a pope in their conclave, but at least in Rome, we know what the smoke signals are,” said Patrick Chovanec, an associate professor at Beijing’s Tsinghua University.

At the National Party Congress, seven of the nine members of the Standing Committee of the Politburo will be set to retire because of informal rules requiring officials to step down at 68.

It will be the most important transition of power in China in a decade. President Hu Jintao, who will have already served the limit of two five-year terms, is to be succeeded by Xi Jinping, the current vice president. If all goes according to plan, Xi will become secretary-general of the Communist Party next year and take over as president in 2013. Premier Wen Jiabao’s successor looks to be Vice Premier Li Keqiang.

“Obviously, they were talking about personnel to decide on the next generation of leadership,” said Jin Zhong, a political analyst based in Hong Kong. “But all the decisions are made internally. There is no transparency.”

To the extent anybody speculates on who’s on tap for promotion, among the most likely candidates is Bo Xilai, a flamboyant (by Chinese standards) party boss in Chongqing who garnered headlines — and some ridicule — for a campaign to get the population singing Communist Party songs. Others are Wang Yang, the business-minded party chief of Guangdong province, the manufacturing hub; Wang Qishan, a top economic official who some believe wants to liberalize the currency; and Li Yuanchao, head of the secretive Organization Department, which controls personnel.

With few signals as to what’s coming, political analysts seize on whatever clues they stumble across.

Ailing 85-year-old former President Jiang Zemin, the subject of a rumor over the summer that he’d died, appeared recently at a ceremony commemorating the 100th anniversary of the overthrow of the Qing dynasty — leading to speculation that his proteges would be favored in the upcoming personnel shuffle.

A photograph in the People’s Daily over the summer showing Liu Yandong, one of the highest-ranking women in the party, with Hu has raised expectations that perhaps for the first time a woman might join the inner sanctum of Chinese politics.

Getting a scoop on a political story can be hazardous. Zhao Yan, a New York Times researcher, was charged with revealing state secrets in 2004 for an article predicting that Jiang would retire. He was convicted on lesser charges and spent three years in jail.

“The Chinese press will not report on politics,” said He Husheng, professor of party history at Beijing’s People’s University.

barbara.demick@latimes.com